Tennis aficionados will be rubbing their hands with delight at the final match-up being served on day 11 of the WTA Rome 2024. World No 2 Aryna Sabalenka takes on the red-hot Danielle Collins in a women’s semi-final that could be more intriguing.
Sabalenka comes into this clash off the back of some fighting efforts. She went down 12 days ago in the Madrid final to Swiatek by a hair’s breadth, and has carried on this energy for much of her time in Rome as well. Against Elina Svitolina in the round of 16, she saved multiple match points before advancing in a deciding tiebreak.
Now, Sabalenka comes up against one of the stories of the year: The Danimal. Since announcing her retirement in early 2024, she’s been playing lights-out tennis. In fact, the American has lost just once since Indian Wells.
But that loss? It was to Sabalenka 10 days ago. Can Collins gain her revenge? Read on for our Sabalenka vs Collins prediction and betting tips.
How the Bookies View It: Sabalenka Has the Edge
Bookmaker bet365 gives Sabalenka a 4/7 edge ahead of this semi-final clash. It’s close though, with Collins not far off on 11/8. Set betting puts a straight sets win to Sabalenka at 6/4, the most likely outcome.
Recent Head-to-Head: Complete Dominance
Sabalenka and Collins have met on the WTA Tour five times, and Sabalenka has prevailed every single time. The Belarusian defeated Collins as recently as Madrid 2024, where she came back from a set down to win 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Sabalenka’s most recent win over Ostapenko must have been a breath of fresh air for the world No 2. Prior to that, 10 of her last 11 matches went the distance. Considering the fact that three of the five meetings between Sabalenka and Collins have involved deciding sets, we could be in for a long one here on Thursday evening.
The Belarusian looks to have recovered fully from her back issue that flared up against Svitolina in the round of 16. Sabalenka required a medical timeout and looked to be struggling, despite going on to win the match. However, against Jelena Ostapenko, the 26-year-old was playing free-flowing tennis as she prevailed for the loss of just six games.
Collins is by far the form player of 2024. She strung together 15 wins in a row to claim title in Miami and Charleston. Now, she’s won 19 of her last 20, with the sole defeat coming at Sabalenka’s hands.
Sabalenka vs Collins Betting Tips & Predictions
Strap yourselves in, because this should be a brilliant back-and-forth encounter. As three of their meetings have previously, we expect this one will go the distance. Given her fighting spirit and track record against Collins, we give the edge to Sabalenka, just.
- Sabalenka -2.5 handicap @ 5/6
- Three sets total @ 6/5
Sabalenka and Collins will take to the court last on Thursday, not before 8:30pm local time. In the meantime, check out some of our predictions for who will win the men’s event in Rome.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
