In the last few moments, Rodri's Ballon d'Or odds have been slashed from 9/2 to just 7/4 at the time of writing, with news breaking that the Manchester City midfielder is expected to snatch the prize from former favourite Vinicius Jr.
Indeed, renowned football journalist Fabrizio Romano has posted that the Real Madrid winger will not be travelling to Paris for the awards ceremony this evening, and in fact nobody from Los Blancos will be attending. He then posted that Rodri arrived in Paris in preparation for the ceremony, with various outlets reporting that he is now expected to win the Ballon d'Or.
As such, despite what some bookmakers are still showing, here are five reasons why we think Rodri may have snatched the award ahead of Vinicius Jr…
Rodri Ballon d'Or odds: Five reasons why City man may have snatched it
1. Incredible consistency
Rodri's performances over the last year or so have been incredibly consistent in a City shirt. The last time they lost a game in the Premier League with him on the pitch was 5th February 2023, a 1-0 defeat away at Tottenham Hotspur.
Rodri is also unbeaten in normal time in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) for over three years, last losing to Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 away from home in the group stage in the 2021/22 campaign. He also helped City reach the final of the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium last season, only to lose 2-1 to bitter local rivals Manchester United.
2. Trophies galore
In the past year, Rodri won an unmatched fourth Premier League title in a row with City, as well as the FIFA Club World Cup and FA Community Shield. He also won the most recent UEFA European Championship in Germany with Spain.
3. Defensively-minded winners a rarity
Looking back at previous winners, it is much more rare for a defensively-minded player to lift the award than an attacker. Therefore, Rodri winning it over Vinicius Jr could set a precedent for future winners and remove any potential bias towards attack-minded players.
4. Not just a defensive midfielder
Rodri's goals and assists record for a supposed defensive midfielder has been very impressive over the last year, scoring no fewer than nine times and managing a further 14 assists across all competitions in a City shirt in the 2023/24 season. He also netted for Spain at Euro 2024, with a further two goals scored in friendlies leading up to the tournament.
5. A degree of sympathy?
Rodri tragically suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in September that ruled him out for the rest of the 2024/25 campaign. Players very rarely tend to reach their peak level before the ACL injury occurred before suffering one, so this may well be Rodri's best chance of winning the Ballon d'Or.
As such, voters may share a degree of sympathy for Rodri, which could psychologically sway their votes towards him, with Vinicius Jr arguably more likely to win a Ballon d'Or in the future at the age of just 24 compared to Rodri being four years older at 28.
