The Championship weekend begins on Friday night when Wrexham host Birmingham City at the Racecourse Ground. The clash brings together two sides who arrive in very different moods, with the hosts trying to build on a solid start at home and the visitors searching for defensive stability after setbacks in recent weeks.
Wrexham’s first season back at this level has been mixed. Their underlying numbers underline the challenge: an xPTS return of 7.12 overall ranks them in the bottom quarter, and at home they have only managed a shots-in-box differential of –0.75. That reflects a side that can be exposed defensively, conceding on average 1.65 xGA per game. They do, however, carry a significant threat from set pieces, generating 4.66 xG in those situations which is the fourth highest in the division and that has often kept them competitive even when struggling in open play.
Phil Parkinson’s side are yet to keep a clean sheet at home, with all four league games in North Wales seeing both teams find the net. Still, Wrexham have shown resilience, grinding out seven points from positions where the data suggested they should have fewer.
Birmingham arrive in need of a reset after back-to-back defeats, the latest coming in midweek at home to Sheffield Wednesday. Their early season promise has faded, though their away profile remains encouraging: they rank top six for away xG ratio, concede fewer than 10 shots per game on the road, and have a strong xPTS return of 11.58 overall, placing them among the division’s early contenders. Chris Davies will be looking for a more clinical edge, with Birmingham averaging just 1.02 xG per game over the last month.
This Friday night contest has the makings of a tense, physical affair, shaped by Wrexham’s aerial power and Birmingham’s compact defensive structure.
How the bookies view it: Close game expected
Wrexham are priced at 9/5, which implies a 35.7% chance of victory, while Birmingham are 33/20 with a 37.7% chance. The draw is 5/2, giving it a 28.6% likelihood. The bookmakers see little between the two sides, with the market suggesting a near 50–50 contest.
Goals are expected, as both teams to score is 4/5, equating to a 55.6% probability, while over 2.5 goals trades at 11/10, a 47.6% chance. That points to the expectation of both sides finding the net, though the odds suggest slightly less certainty that the game will stretch to three or more goals.
Head to Head: Blues edge it
Birmingham have the edge in the recent head-to-head with Wrexham, going unbeaten in the last two meetings. They won 3-1 at home in September 2024 before a 1-1 draw in the return fixture in January 2025. Across those games Birmingham scored four times to Wrexham’s two, leaving the Welsh side still searching for a first victory in this fixture.
Players to watch: Strikers to feature heavily
Both strikers profile well for a combined fouls and shots bet when Wrexham face Birmingham.
Kieffer Moore has already committed 11 fouls in eight games this season, averaging more than one per 90 minutes. He uses his physicality to hold the ball up and contest aerial duels, and his record of 74 duels contested shows how often he gets into contact situations where fouls are likely. At the same time, Moore is a consistent shooting outlet. He has attempted 20 shots in 660 minutes (2.7 per 90) with six on target, including a brace against Sheffield Wednesday and further goals against Millwall and QPR. Wrexham’s reliance on him for set pieces and crosses makes 2+ shots a realistic expectation.
Jay Stansfield has also shown a tendency to foul, picking up 16 fouls in seven matches, averaging more than two per game. He has already collected two yellow cards, underlining his aggressive pressing style. In attack, Stansfield has produced 18 shots and four on target across his seven appearances, averaging 2.3 shots per 90. His busiest display came against Sheffield Wednesday last week, when he hit 6 attempts and scored once.
The matchup context also strengthens the case. Wrexham have conceded plenty of possession this season, meaning Moore will be asked to scrap for long balls and Stansfield will press from the front, both situations where fouls are common. Meanwhile, both players are central to their side’s chance creation: Moore as the focal point in the box, and Stansfield as a runner and shooter around the edge of the area.
Moore and Stansfield each to commit 1+ foul and register 2+ shots looks well supported by their season profiles and team roles.
Predicted line-ups
Wrexham (3-4-2-1): Okonkwo, Cleworth, Hyam, Brunt, Kaboré, Dobson, Sheaf, Longman, Windass, O’Brien, Moore
Birmingham City (4-2-3-1): Allsop, Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Cashin, Cochrane, Iwata, Doyle, Gray, Roberts, Stansfield, Furuhashi
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers around this fixture point strongly to goals at both ends. Wrexham have been one of the most reliable sides for both teams to score in the Championship so far, with 75% of their matches seeing both teams score. At home they have conceded in every game, allowing 17.25 shots in the box in total, the second-worst record in the league. They give up volume but continue to threaten themselves, taking over 12 shots per game on average and hitting the target almost five times a match. Importantly, they have created four big chances at the Racecourse Ground, showing they can turn pressure into genuine openings.
Birmingham started the campaign well, especially at St Andrew’s where they kept two clean sheets. Away from home, though, it has been a different story. They have conceded seven goals in four games on the road and are still looking for their first clean sheet. Their back line has shown vulnerability in recent weeks, shipping five in their last two league games, including two at home in midweek against Sheffield Wednesday. That makes them hard to trust for a shutout.
The attacking numbers also lean towards both sides finding a breakthrough. Birmingham average over 12 shots per game, with an xG return of 3.41 from set pieces alone, ranking them in the top third of the Championship. They create at least two big chances most weeks and their shot-on-target profile is steady, averaging more than three per 90 minutes.
With Wrexham’s defensive fragility and Birmingham’s away record, coupled with both sides consistently producing big chances, the case for both teams scoring is strong. The data indicates this is unlikely to be a cagey contest, with the balance of chances pointing to goals at both ends.
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