Wolverhampton Wanderers host Blackburn Rovers at Molineux on Friday with a 8pm start, as the 2026/27 Championship season begins and Wolves start life back in the second tier for the first time in nine years.
Wolves finished bottom of the Premier League last season with only 20 points and 27 goals, the lowest scoring return in the division. Their 38.8 xPTS suggests performances deserved considerably more, but relegation still cost Rob Edwards his job. Cesar Peixoto arrives from Gil Vicente for his first job in English football and has already started reshaping the squad.
Kieran Trippier and Raul Jimenez have arrived on free transfers, Ladislav Krejci has made his loan spell permanent from Girona and Rafiki Said has joined from Standard Liege. Joao Gomes has moved to Aston Villa for around £40m, while Tolu Arokodare has joined Ajax on loan.
Blackburn finished 20th in the Championship with 52 points, close to their 55.54 xPTS, so their final position was a reasonable reflection of their performances. Their home numbers were relatively solid at 1.12 xG and 1.10 xGA per game, but the away split was weaker, dropping to 0.92 xG while conceding 1.39 xGA.
Tony Mowbray has returned to take charge, with Sam Morsy arriving on a one-year deal to add experience in midfield.
Wolves have won four of their five preseason and cup fixtures. A 1-0 victory over Maidenhead United was followed by a 2-1 defeat to Real Sociedad before wins over Doncaster Rovers, Racing Santander and Port Vale.
The 3-0 Carabao Cup victory over Port Vale was less comfortable than the scoreline suggests. Wolves conceded 1.93 xGA and three big chances against League Two opposition, with Dan Bentley also saving a penalty. Peixoto has acknowledged his side still needs additions before the transfer window closes.
Blackburn's preparation has been less convincing. They lost 3-0 to Nottingham Forest, beat Strasbourg 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Huddersfield before beating Burton Albion 2-1 in the Carabao Cup. Mowbray felt his side should have won much more comfortably after wasting what he described as “half a dozen golden chances”, before Andri Gudjohnsen and Jayden Fevrier scored late on.
How the bookies view it
Wolves are 4/7, implying a 63.6% chance of winning. The draw is 10/3 at 23.1%, while Blackburn are 6/1 at 14.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is 4/5, implying 55.6%, while both teams to score is 7/8 at 53.3%.
Head to head: Wolves hold a narrow advantage
These clubs have met 17 times since 2003 across the Premier League, Championship and FA Cup, with Wolves holding a narrow advantage of six wins to Blackburn's five, alongside six draws.
Their most recent meeting came in the FA Cup fourth round in February 2025, when Wolves won 2-0 at Ewood Park. Four of their eight Championship meetings have finished level, including a 0-0 draw in their most recent second-tier meeting in April 2017.
Player to watch: Fer Lopez back with a bang
Fer Lopez has been one of the brighter parts of Wolves' preseason after returning from his loan spell at Celta Vigo.
His numbers in Spain were better than the basic output suggests. Lopez produced 1.57 xG and 1.49 expected assists while creating 12 chances, including three big chances, despite being used across four different positions.
A more settled attacking role under Peixoto should give him a better opportunity to turn those underlying numbers into goals and assists. If his preseason performances carry into the Championship, he has the profile to become an important part of this Wolves attack.
Predicted line ups
Wolverhampton Wanderers (4-2-3-1): Bentley; Trippier, Mosquera, Toti, Bueno; Andre, Munetsi; Lopez, Gomes, Mane; Armstrong.
Blackburn Rovers (4-2-3-1): Toth; Alebiosu, Atcheson, McLoughlin, Pickering; Garrett, Forshaw; Morishita, Cantwell, Afolayan; Ohashi.
Anything else catch the eye?
Wolves are understandably favourites, but 4/7 looks short for a side beginning the season under a new manager after finishing bottom of the Premier League. The result market interests me less than the goals.
Both teams to score is my preferred angle.
Wolves have won four of five across preseason and the Carabao Cup, scoring nine times in their last three, but the Port Vale performance exposed defensive problems that the 3-0 scoreline hides. Allowing a League Two side to generate 1.93 xG and three big chances, as well as conceding a penalty, is significant heading into a Championship fixture.
Blackburn also created enough to score more than twice against Burton, with Mowbray frustrated by the number of clear chances they missed. Their 0.92 away xG from last season is modest, but Wolves have shown enough defensive vulnerability under their new setup to offer them opportunities.
At the other end, Wolves should create chances against a Blackburn side that conceded 1.39 xGA per away game last season.
There is uncertainty around both teams under new managers, but the early evidence points towards chances at both ends rather than either side controlling the game defensively.
GambleAware