The EFL Cup third round brings together two League One clubs with different profiles as Wigan Athletic host Wycombe Wanderers at the The Brick Community Stadium on Tuesday night. Both sides have had mixed starts in the league, but the data suggests they are playing at a top-half standard.
Wigan arrive with five wins from their opening twelve fixtures in all competitions, including narrow League Cup victories over Notts County and Stockport to reach this stage. They have shown balance, scoring 16 and conceding 15, with xPTS of 13.76 placing them sixth in the League One rankings. Ryan Lowe’s side are creating good chances, posting one of the division’s stronger attacking xG outputs, while also finding resilience in front of their home supporters.
Wycombe’s campaign has been more up and down, marked by inconsistency and a managerial change last season with Mike Dodds tasked with stabilising the side after the departure of Matt Bloomfield. They too have made it through two rounds, edging Leyton Orient and then Bromley on penalties, but their league form has been patchy. Sitting on xPTS of 12.28 (fifth best in League One), the numbers indicate they are competitive, yet results have not always matched the underlying performances.
Transfer activity has also shaped both squads. Wigan trimmed down in the summer, relying heavily on academy graduates and loans to complement their senior core, while Wycombe lost key names and have been bedding in several new signings. Goals have not come easily for the Chairboys, who average just over a goal per game in the league.
At the DW, Wigan will see this as an opportunity to extend a cup run, while Wycombe aim to prove they can upset a side whose underlying metrics suggest more stability.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Wigan are 7/5 (41.7%) to take the win, the draw is 23/10 (30.3%), and Wycombe are 11/5 (31.3%) outsiders. For goals, over 2.5 is 15/13 (46.4%), while both teams to score is 10/11 (52.4%), suggesting the market expects a competitive match with a decent chance of goals at both ends.
Head to Head: Tight games
The last six meetings between Wigan and Wycombe have been tight affairs, with both sides enjoying spells of success. Their most recent clash in February 2025 ended goalless at Adams Park, following Wycombe’s 1-0 win at the DW Stadium earlier that season in November. In 2023/24, each team claimed a narrow home victory, Wycombe winning 1-0 in March before Wigan responded with a 1-0 triumph in January.
Looking further back, Wigan enjoyed the upper hand in 2021/22 with a 3-1 away win, while the 2021/22 season opener finished in a 1-1 draw. Across these six games, Wycombe have edged it with three wins to Wigan’s two, while one has ended level. Goals have been scarce, with just eight scored in total across the six meetings which is an average of 1.33 per game underlining the defensive and competitive nature of this fixture.
Players to watch: Mullin still major threat
Paul Mullin looks a strong option in the anytime scorer market for Wigan. He has scored four goals in 11 appearances this season, including one in the EFL Cup, and is averaging a goal every 133 minutes. Importantly, when he gets chances he makes them count, with nine of his 12 shots hitting the target, a strike rate of 75% that underlines his efficiency in front of goal.
Mullin has also found the net in three of his last five starts, showing that when given minutes from the outset he consistently carries a threat. With Wigan expected to lean on him again in the Cup, his sharp finishing and proven form across both league and knockout games make him a very realistic candidate to get on the scoresheet against Wycombe.
Predicted line-ups
Wigan (3-4-2-1): Tickle; Aimson, Kerr, Sessegnon; Adeeko, M. Smith, McManaman, J. Smith; Mullin, Asamoah; Saydee.
Wycombe (4-3-3): Norris; Grimmer, Taylor, Allen, Harvie; Leahy, Mullins, Henderson; Onyedinma, Woodrow, Bell.
Anything else catch the eye?
Wigan look a strong pick to beat Wycombe, and the data behind both clubs makes a convincing case.
Starting with shot output, Wigan average 12.3 shots per game in League One, with around 4.6 on target, showing a steady attacking presence. Wycombe are producing fewer efforts, closer to 10 shots per game and under four on target, so their attacking volume is weaker. That difference in sustained pressure has been reflected in results, with Wigan scoring three more goals than their visitors so far this season.
Big chances also highlight the contrast. Wigan have carved out more high-quality openings, converting enough to keep themselves in the top half for goal creation. Wycombe, however, have created far fewer big chances, often relying on defensive organisation to stay in games rather than putting opponents away.
xPTS also backs Wigan. They sit on 13.76, ranking sixth in the division, compared with Wycombe’s 12.28. While both are top-half figures, Wigan’s advantage comes from being more balanced across attack and defence. Wycombe are strong defensively but too often blunt in attack, which makes winning on the road difficult.
Recent form adds to the picture. Wigan have been solid at home, with comfortable wins over Doncaster and Peterborough in recent weeks, while Wycombe have lost four of their five away league games this season, including trips to Bradford and Stevenage.
All of this suggests the Latics are the more reliable side to back. Their attacking volume, better big chance creation, and stronger home record point towards Wigan making their quality count.
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