The Premier League weekend continues with a London derby at the London Stadium on Saturday evening, as West Ham United host Tottenham Hotspur. Both teams arrive with strengths and weaknesses, and the numbers point to an open, competitive encounter.
West Ham eased the pressure on Graham Potter with a 3-0 victory away at Nottingham Forest last weekend. All three goals arrived late, courtesy of Jarrod Bowen, a penalty from Lucas Paqueta, and a first goal for the club from Callum Wilson. It was a much-needed result after defeats to Sunderland and Chelsea.
The underlying data suggests West Ham have been involved in high-event contests. They rank third in the league for shots in the box created, averaging 8.33 per game, but also sit fourth for most shots in the box conceded. Their xPTS total is 3.42, keeping them in the bottom half of the early-season table.
Spurs began brightly under Thomas Frank, with a statement victory at Manchester City, but came unstuck against Bournemouth in their last outing. That 1-0 defeat highlighted defensive issues that have carried over from last season. Spurs have conceded the second-most shots in the box in the Premier League so far, averaging 9.67 per game, while also giving up more than their share of big chances. Their xPTS sits at 4.14, only marginally better than West Ham’s, and they have won just one of their three xG battles.
Off the pitch, both managers are still bedding in summer additions. Spurs have paraded new signing Xavi Simons to their supporters, while West Ham’s forward line has been strengthened by Callum Wilson. Both sides look capable of scoring but remain defensively vulnerable, making this derby one of the weekend’s most watchable fixtures.
How the bookies view it: Visitors slight favourites
Tottenham are slight favourites at 23/20 (47% implied probability) to win away at West Ham, who are priced at 49/20 (29%). The draw is available at 13/5 (28%). Goals are expected in this London derby, with over 2.5 goals offered at 4/5 (56% implied probability) and both teams to score at 4/6 (60%).
Head to Head: Spurs edge it
Across the last 20 meetings between West Ham and Tottenham, Spurs have the edge with nine wins compared to West Ham’s six, while five ended level. Tottenham have outscored the Hammers 36 to 27 over that stretch, with games averaging just over three goals each. Recent clashes have generally been competitive: the last five Premier League encounters produced two draws, two Spurs victories and one win for West Ham.
The fixture often delivers goals, with both teams scoring in 11 of the last 20 matches and over 2.5 goals landing in 12. Recent score lines underline the pattern, including a 1-1 draw in May 2025, a 4-1 Spurs win in October 2024, and a 2-1 West Ham victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in December 2023. With no goalless draws in this period and plenty of high-scoring outcomes, the historical data points strongly towards another open contest.
Players to watch: Fouls with Sarr
Two of the strongest betting angles for Tottenham’s Pape Matar Sarr this weekend against West Ham are 2+ fouls and to be booked. Both bets are supported by his recent numbers, his record in this fixture, and the style of refereeing expected.
Sarr has been the Premier League’s most frequent fouler across the opening three rounds. He has already conceded nine fouls in three matches, averaging three per game, and yet he has somehow avoided a yellow card. No other player in the division has reached that level of fouling without being cautioned, which strongly suggests he is overdue a booking.
His role in Thomas Frank’s midfield makes it difficult to see his foul count dropping. Sarr presses constantly, covers ground aggressively, and is often tasked with tactical fouls to break up play. Against West Ham, this pattern has already been clear. Last season he committed three fouls in the home game and one in the away fixture, underlining how the matchup drags him into challenges.
The referee is Jarred Gillett, who averaged 4.25 cards per game last season. With Sarr’s numbers and Gillett’s card history, both 2+ fouls and a booking stand out as excellent options.
Predicted line-ups
West Ham (4-2-3-1): Hermansen, Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Kilman, Diouf, Soucek, Ward-Prowse, Bowen, Paqueta, Fernandes, Wilson
Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Vicario, Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence, Bentancur, Palhinha, Sarr, Kudus, Richarlison, Johnson
Anything else catch the eye?
The strongest betting angle for this London derby is a three-pronged selection: both teams to score and Spurs over 0 cards.
Both teams are consistently creating and conceding quality chances. Spurs have allowed the second-most shots in the box this season, giving up 9.67 per game, while West Ham are not far behind, ranking fourth-worst at 8.0 per match. At the other end, West Ham’s attack looks sharp, generating the third-most shots in the box (8.33), with goals already spread across Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paqueta, and Callum Wilson. Spurs, for their part, have scored in two of their three games. These numbers strongly support both teams to score.
For cards, Spurs provide the most reliable route. They have collected at least one card in 19 of their last 20 Premier League away games, averaging 2.30 bookings per match on the road. This season, their matches have featured zero, five and six cards, underlining the likelihood of Spurs contributing to the total. By contrast, West Ham have picked up just one booking across three games. Spurs over 0 cards looks a safe leg.
On total cards, referee Jarred Gillett is the key factor. He has shown three and two cards in his two Premier League appointments this season. Last term, he averaged 4.25 bookings per game, with seven of his 16 matches finishing over 4.5.
Combining fragile defences, Spurs’ card record, and Gillett’s officiating style, the smart angle is both teams to score and Spurs over 0 cards.
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