West Brom and Blackburn kick off their Championship campaigns on Saturday afternoon at The Hawthorns in what looks an even contest on paper, but one shaped by very different underlying trends.
West Brom finished ninth last season, four points shy of the Play-Offs. Their campaign was defined by inconsistency after Carlos Corberan’s departure, with Ryan Mason now tasked with providing stability and forward momentum in his first permanent role. The underlying data paints a more optimistic picture: they ranked seventh for xPTS and had one of the league’s best non-penalty xG differences, suggesting they were a top-six side in performance terms.
Blackburn, by contrast, ended last season in seventh but were flattered by the table. They overperformed their xPTS by over eight points one of the biggest swings in the division and had a negative xG differential. They were inconsistent, especially on the road, and relied on moments rather than process.
West Brom have had a relatively low-key summer, but centre-back Nat Phillips, attacker Aune Heggebo and defender George Campbell add depth, while Mikey Johnston returns after a successful loan spell. Josh Maja is nearing fitness and could feature, but Daryl Dike remains out.
Blackburn continue under the Venkys’ chaotic stewardship but have added Sidnei Tavares, Ryan Alebiosu and Dion De Neve, while keeping key players like Dom Hyam, Callum Brittain, and Todd Cantwell. Yuki Ohashi and Makhtar Gueye remain attacking threats.
Both teams are in transition. West Brom are trying to build something steady under Mason, while Blackburn’s model feels harder to sustain. It makes Saturday’s opener a test of direction as much as ability.
How the bookies view it: Baggies favourites with low scoring game
West Brom are priced at 9/10 to win, which implies a 52.6% chance of victory. The draw is available at 13/5, giving it an implied probability of 27.8%, while a Blackburn win at 18/5 reflects just a 21.7% chance of an away upset.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/4, implying a 44.4% chance, while both teams to score is 11/10, or 47.6% implied probability.
Head to Head: Honours even in recent history
The recent head-to-head record between West Brom and Blackburn is fairly even, with Blackburn winning four, West Brom three, and three draws across their last ten Championship meetings. Blackburn are unbeaten in the last three encounters, including a 2-0 win at The Hawthorns in February 2025 and a goalless draw at Ewood Park earlier that season. That said, West Brom did win 4-1 at home in January 2024, showing their ability to take control of the fixture.
The six most recent meetings at The Hawthorns have produced two wins for each side and two draws, underlining how little separates them. Both teams have scored in six of the last ten games overall, though only once in the last four, and just three of those ten matches have seen over 3.5 goals. Historically, this has been a tight and competitive fixture with no clear long-term dominance.
Players to watch: Furlong to be a set piece threat
Darnell Furlong stands out as a strong option in the shots market this weekend, particularly given the matchup. He made 42 starts for West Brom last season and attempted 40 shots, with 19 of those coming from his head. He registered at least one effort in 22 of those 42 games, and was especially active at home, taking 22 shots across 23 matches at The Hawthorns, with a shot in 13 of those 23.
Importantly, some of his blanks came against top opposition in Burnley and Leeds (both promoted), and strong playoff sides like Middlesbrough and Coventry. Against teams outside that top group, Furlong was far more involved, including in both fixtures against Blackburn, where he had one shot in each.
The matchup here is favourable. West Brom generated 19.03 xG from set pieces at home last season, ranking 11th in the league, and consistently target Furlong in those moments. Blackburn, meanwhile, conceded 14.9 xGA from set pieces on the road, with only 10 teams allowing more. That imbalance gives Furlong a clear route to another shot, especially given his aerial threat and role in Albion’s set-piece routines.
Predicted line-ups
WBA (4-2-3-1): Griffiths, Furlong, Heggem, Phillips, Styles, Molumby, Mowatt, Fellows, Johnston, Grant, Heggebo
Blackburn Rovers (4-2-3-1): Toth, Alebiosu, Hyam, McLoughlin, Ribeiro, Travis, Tronstad, De Neve, Tyjon, Hedges, Gueye
Anything else catch the eye?
This bet builder focuses on three linked outcomes with strong statistical backing: West Brom to avoid defeat, to score at least once, and for the game to stay under four goals.
West Brom were solid at home last season, scoring in 16 of 23 games and averaging 11.3 shots and 3.6 shots on target per match at The Hawthorns. They also created 1.31 xG per home game and ranked top six for big chances created at home. They scored in all but one of their last 11 home games, and Josh Maja’s potential return adds attacking threat.
The Baggies also allowed just 1.14 xGA per home match and ranked seventh for home xPTS, showing they controlled territory and limited opposition chances. Against a Blackburn side who averaged just 0.77 xG and 2.5 shots on target per game away from home, West Brom should carry the greater threat.
Blackburn conceded over one goal per away match and kept just seven clean sheets in 23 games on the road. They conceded 38.5% more shots on target than they produced away, showing vulnerability. But the match is unlikely to be high-scoring: only eight of West Brom’s home games and eight of Blackburn’s away games went over 2.5 goals.
This selection covers a range of realistic outcomes: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 or 2-1 all land. With West Brom defensively structured, at home, and facing a side with poor underlying away metrics, this looks a strong way to back the hosts while keeping the risk low.
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