Serie A action continues this weekend with Hellas Verona hosting Cremonese at the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi on Monday. Both sides arrive with very different early-season narratives but with plenty of talking points on and off the pitch.
Verona’s start has been concerning. They have taken just one point from their opening two matches, shipping five goals and sitting in the bottom four of the xPTS table. Their underlying numbers are bleak: 1.4 xG for and 4.8 xGA, leaving them with a -3.4 xGD, the worst in the division. Discipline has also been an issue, with more fouls conceded than any other side. On the pitch, Suat Serdar has been their lone scorer, while defensively they look disorganised and vulnerable, particularly in aerial duels where they rank last for success rate. The pressure is already mounting on Paolo Zanetti to find stability.
Off the pitch, Verona lost key defensive figures in the summer, leaving Lorenzo Montipo badly exposed in goal. Replacements have struggled to bed in, and without significant attacking reinforcements, the squad looks lighter than last season.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have started brightly with two wins from two. They have scored five goals and sit towards the top of the table despite negative xGD. The efficiency has come from players like Frederico Bonazzoli and Franco Vazquez, who have hit the ground running, even if the finishing levels are unlikely to be sustained. They also have a certain Jamie Vardy now part of their squad. Emil Audero has impressed between the posts, bailing his defence out when needed.
Summer business brought in experienced Serie A names to add stability, and the squad looks balanced enough to compete in mid-table. The early results flatter them compared to their xPTS, but momentum is with Davide Nicola’s side.
It’s an intriguing contest: a fragile Verona searching for answers against a Cremonese side that has made the most of its fast start.
How the bookies view it: Hosts slight favourites
Verona are priced at 29/20 to win, which carries an implied probability of 40.8%, while the draw at 11/5 is 31.3% and Cremonese at 23/10 is 30.3%, making the hosts slight favourites but with little between the sides in the market.
Goals are expected to play a part, with over 2.5 goals available at 13/10, an implied probability of 43.5%, and both teams to score trading at 1/1, an implied probability of 50%. This reflects Verona’s defensive struggles and Cremonese’s clinical edge, suggesting the odds-setters see a close contest where chances at both ends are likely.
Head to Head: History of tight games
The last six meetings between Verona and Cremonese show a clear pattern of tight contests. Verona are unbeaten in that run with two wins and four draws, including three consecutive 1–1 scorelines between 2018 and 2019. Their most recent Serie A home clash ended in a 2–0 Verona win in January 2023, giving them a slight edge, while the only high-scoring games came in the Coppa Italia with Verona winning 3–0 in both 2014 and 2019.
Five of the last six fixtures have finished under 2.5 goals, underlining how closely matched these sides have been, though history suggests Verona tend to find a way to avoid defeat.
Players to watch: Serdar to strike
Suat Serdar looks well placed to register at least two shots in this match. His profile at Verona shows he is one of the few midfielders consistently willing to pull the trigger. Across the 2024/25 campaign he attempted 30 shots in 1,376 minutes, averaging just under two per 90, with eight testing the goalkeeper.
That level of activity came despite being shifted around roles, appearing as a central midfielder, defensive midfielder and even advanced in an attacking role. The new season has already reinforced his intent: in two outings he has taken four shots, with three in the heavy defeat to Lazio alone.
He has also scored once, highlighting that he does not shy away from getting into shooting positions. The underlying numbers back it up too, with 1.9 xG and 29 shot-creating actions last season. With Verona struggling for end product and relying on midfielders to step up, Serdar’s forward runs, carries and willingness to shoot suggest he should again produce multiple efforts on goal.
Predicted line-ups
Hellas Verona (3-4-1-2): Montipo, Nunez, Nelsson, Ebosse, Cham, Serdar, Al-Musrati, Bradaric, Harroui, Giovane, Sarr
Cremonese (3-4-1-2): Audero, Terracciano, Baschirotto, Faye, Zerbin, Collocolo, Bondo, Vandeputte, Pezzella, Vazquez, Sanabria
Anything else catch the eye?
The data makes a strong case for both teams to score when Verona meet Cremonese.
Cremonese may have collected maximum points, but their defensive record hints at vulnerability. Opponents have managed 32 shots and 10 on target against them across two games, figures that translate to 31.5 shot-creating actions per match. Despite Emil Audero’s strong 81.8% save rate, the underlying process shows they are conceding opportunities at a worrying volume. That makes it hard to see them keeping clean sheets consistently.
Verona’s own numbers are even more striking. They have conceded 36 shots, 10 on target and five goals, while their opponents have generated 34.5 shot-creating actions per match which is the highest against any Serie A side. The volume of creative actions faced is turning directly into goals, with Verona shipping 10 goal-creating actions already. Their defence has been exposed repeatedly, and with aerial duels lost at a rate of 65%, set pieces add another layer of risk.
Yet Verona are not toothless going forward. They average 10.5 shots per game, 3.5 on target, and have created 17 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes. While finishing has let them down so far, the process suggests they are due to find the net more regularly. With Suat Serdar already on the scoresheet and Amin Saarr offering threat, there are signs they can take advantage of Cremonese’s defensive openness.
When one team is overperforming in attack and the other underperforming, regression tends to balance things out. Cremonese are unlikely to keep scoring at their current clinical rate, but they should still test Verona’s weak back line. Equally, Verona’s volume of chances should eventually yield goals.
The data points strongly to both sides finding the net.
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