World Cup 2026 qualifying resumes in Group E this Sunday as Turkey host Spain in Konya. It is a clash that pits one of Europe’s most consistent qualifiers against a side still searching for a first World Cup finals appearance since 2002.
Spain come into the contest on the back of a dominant win away to Bulgaria, where they created six big chances inside the opening 50 minutes and underlined why they are favourites to top the section. Luis de la Fuente’s men were disappointed in the summer after losing the Nations League final to Portugal on penalties, but their qualifying record remains almost flawless.
La Roja have not lost a World Cup qualifier since 1993 and their balance of controlled possession with steady chance creation has made them one of the most reliable teams on this stage. Recent xPTS figures also show Spain operating above 2.5 per game, with expected goals in line with a side consistently creating quality openings.
Turkey arrive off the back of a mixed year. They reached the quarterfinals of Euro 2024, beating Austria in the round of 16 before losing to the Netherlands, but their Nations League promotion playoff win over Hungary showed signs of progress under Vincenzo Montella.
They edged Georgia 3-2 in their opening qualifier, generating 1.09 xG to 0.98 against, but discipline was an issue with four yellows and a red card. The Crescent-Stars have leaned on Hakan Calhanoglu’s creativity, but with Burak Yılmaz retired and Enes Unal long-term injured, their attacking depth is thinner than in past cycles.
Spain’s consistency versus Turkey’s inconsistency frames the narrative: one team with a proven formula, the other trying to step back onto the world stage.
How the bookies view it: Spain heavy favourites
Spain are 13/20 favourites to win in Turkey, which carries an implied probability of around 61.5%, while the hosts are 9/2 (18.2%) and the draw is 13/4 (23.5%). Over 2.5 goals at 3/4 (57.1%) is also in play after Turkey’s 3-2 opener against Georgia, but Spain’s defensive record makes it less reliable: they conceded just five goals in the 2022 campaign and only three in 2014.
Head to Head: Only one previous meeting
Spain and Turkey have only met in one competitive game at Euro 2016 in Nice, where La Roja ran out 3-0 winners thanks to a brace from Alvaro Morata and a strike from Nolito.
Players to watch: Yamal at it again
Lamine Yamal has quickly become Spain’s main attacking outlet, and his recent numbers make him an excellent option in the player markets. In his last five competitive games for Spain, he has attempted 20 shots, hitting eight on target and scoring three goals. He produced standout displays in the Nations League, striking twice against France and once against the Netherlands, while still posting consistent shot volume.
That form has carried into World Cup qualifying. Against Bulgaria, Yamal managed three shots on target inside the opening 60 minutes, underlining how quickly he gets involved and how Spain funnel their attacks down his side. With Luis de la Fuente’s side creating six big chances in that game and averaging over two goals per match in recent qualifiers, there will be opportunities for Yamal to keep testing the goalkeeper.
Turkey’s defence adds to the appeal. They conceded 1.09 xGA on target from just 15 shots and four shots on target against Georgia in their opening qualifier, showing that when opponents do find space, chances are often high quality. Yamal’s direct style and ability to cut inside from the right make him perfectly placed to exploit those weaknesses.
Predicted line-ups
Turkey (4-2-3-1): Cakir, Mulder, Demiral, Bardakci, Elmali, Calhanoglu, Yuksek, Akturkoglu, Guler, Akgun, Yildiz
Spain (4-3-3): Simon, Porro, Le Normand, Huijsen, Cucurella, Pedri, Zubimendi, Olmo, Yamal, Oyarzabal, Williams
Anything else catch the eye?
Spain’s record in World Cup qualifying makes them one of the safest selections in Europe, and combining a home win with over 1.5 goals looks a strong angle.
Across their last four qualifying campaigns, Spain averaged 2.3 goals per game and conceded only 14 times in 50 matches. In this cycle they began with a 3-0 win away to Bulgaria, creating six big chances and recording more than double their opponent’s shots on target. That ability to consistently generate volume and quality chances makes it unlikely they will be restricted to just one goal here.
Underlying data reinforces their superiority. Spain’s non-penalty xG per match in recent campaigns has hovered close to 2.0, and they routinely dominate in box entries and final-third passes. Against Bulgaria they had over 13 shots in the area, showing how regularly they can penetrate defensive blocks. The variety of scorers is also a positive: Ferran Torres, Alvaro Morata and Dani Olmo who all started on the bench against Bulgaria. These players are all rank highly for shot volume in qualifying matches, meaning the attacking burden does not rest on one player.
Turkey, meanwhile, have been more erratic. In their Euro 2024 run they conceded 1.9 xG to Portugal and 3.1 xG to Austria, and their opener against Georgia was far from convincing despite the 3-2 win. They allowed 1.09 xG against Georgia, pointing to vulnerabilities when defending efficient attacks.
Spain’s consistency, combined with Turkey’s defensive lapses, suggests the hosts should find at least two goals in this fixture. With their unbeaten qualifying run stretching back over three decades and a front line capable of creating multiple big chances, backing Spain to win and over 1.5 goals offers both logic and value.
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