The Premier League returns this Saturday as Tottenham Hotspur host newly promoted Burnley at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It is the first competitive match in charge for Thomas Frank, who replaced Ange Postecoglou after Spurs endured a turbulent 2024/25 season. They finished 17th in the league but salvaged Champions League qualification with a Europa League triumph over Manchester United.
Frank inherits a side that scored 64 league goals last term but conceded 65, keeping only two home clean sheets. Their underlying home data told a similar story, with an xG of 1.42 for and 1.78 against per game, the highest total xG in home matches in the league. Spurs have added Mohammed Kudus, Mathys Tel, Kevin Danso, Luka Vuskovic and Kota Takai, but are without James Maddison after his ACL injury.
Pre-season brought mixed results: wins over Reading and Arsenal, draws with Wycombe, Luton and Newcastle, and a heavy 4-0 defeat to Bayern Munich. While there are signs of greater structure under Frank, defensive vulnerabilities remain.
Burnley return to the top flight after a dominant Championship campaign in which they amassed 100 points and conceded just 16 goals. They were exceptional on the road, winning 14 of 23 away games and conceding only eight goals, though their xG data suggested a degree of overperformance, with an away xGA of 0.86 per game.
The Clarets have signed Loum Tchaouna, Bashir Humphreys, Marcus Edwards, Jaidon Anthony, Quilindschy Hartman, Zian Flemming and Kyle Walker, but have lost Josh Brownhill, their top scorer, and CJ Egan-Riley. Pre-season was steady defensively but unconvincing in attack, with just five goals in five games.
This opener sees Spurs’ attacking firepower tested against a Burnley side built on discipline and defensive organisation.
How the bookies view it: Spurs heavy favourites
Tottenham are priced at 3/8, implying a 72.7% chance of victory, with the draw at 17/4 (19%) and Burnley outsiders at 17/2 (10.5%). Over 2.5 goals is 4/6, which suggests a 60% probability, while both teams to score is even money, implying 50%. The odds reflect strong market confidence in a Tottenham win, moderate expectation for a high-scoring game, and a near coin-flip on whether both sides find the net.
Head to Head: Home record strong for Villa
Tottenham have dominated their recent meetings with Burnley, winning 14 of the last 20 encounters, drawing four and losing just two, with a +25 goal difference from 38 goals scored and only 13 conceded. At home, Spurs have been especially strong, winning nine of the last 10 matches in all competitions and keeping seven clean sheets in that run, with standout results including a 5-0 win in December 2019 and a 4-0 victory in February 2021.
The recent head-to-head record is equally one-sided, with Spurs beating Burnley 2-1 in the Premier League in May 2024, 1-0 in the FA Cup in January 2024, and 5-2 away in September 2023. Burnley’s last win over Spurs came in February 2022 at Turf Moor, and they have not won away in this fixture since January 1983, losing all seven league visits since
Players to watch: Hartman in for a long afternoon
Quilindschy Hartman looks well placed to commit two or more fouls when Burnley visit Tottenham. The Dutch left-back is set to be directly up against Mohammed Kudus, who was fouled 64 times in 32 Premier League appearances for West Ham last season. Kudus drew at least one foul in 25 of those games and two or more in 22, thanks to his ability to dribble at pace, shield the ball, and force defenders into challenges. Hartman started eight league games for Feyenoord last season, making at least one foul in six of them, and will now be facing a step up in attacking quality.
Burnley are likely to be under pressure for long spells, which will pin Hartman deep and increase his exposure to 1v1 situations. Brennan Johnson’s tendency to switch flanks could also bring fresh pace and movement onto his side, forcing even more defensive duels. Against two direct and skilful attackers, Hartman committing multiple fouls is a realistic outcome.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham (4-3-3) Vicario; Pedro Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence; Bentancur, Palhinha, Sarr; Johnson, Richarlison, Kudus
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Hladky, Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman, Cullen, Laurent, Edwards, Hannibal, Anthony, Foster
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Tottenham to win, score over 1.5 goals, and win over 4.5 corners is well supported by recent data.
At home last season, Spurs averaged just over seven corners per match, a figure in line with the attacking territory they regularly enjoyed. Under Thomas Frank, Brentford averaged 5.12 home corners, suggesting Spurs’ corner output should remain high. Burnley conceded 4.52 corners per away game in the Championship, a number likely to rise against Premier League opposition capable of sustained pressure.
Spurs’ attack, already producing 1.42 xG per home game last season, has been strengthened with Mohammed Kudus and the permanent signing of Mathys Tel. Their home games were open, but that openness also allowed them to create volume as they averaged over nine shots in the box and generated the highest total xG per home match in the league (3.20).
Burnley’s defensive record last season was extraordinary, but their away xGA of 0.86 and xPTS of 36.19 show their numbers were inflated by clinical goalkeeping and finishing. They conceded in pre-season to Shrewsbury, Stoke and Lazio, underlining that they can be broken down.
Tottenham’s pre-season saw goals in all but one match they scored in, and against a Burnley team stepping up in class, two or more goals for the hosts is realistic. Burnley’s loss of top scorer Josh Brownhill and their modest five-goal tally across five friendlies suggests they may struggle to apply consistent attacking pressure, allowing Spurs to dictate play and rack up corners.
The combination of a Tottenham win, over 1.5 goals and over 4.5 team corners aligns with their attacking profile, Burnley’s likely defensive workload, and the stylistic match-up in this opening fixture.
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