Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest
English Premier League, KO: 20:00 , Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Nottingham Forest have had an excellent season, currently sitting fourth with six games remaining. In contrast, Tottenham find themselves in 15th, with the Europa League realistically their only remaining target. They are safe from relegation—16 points clear of Ipswich in 18th—but a bottom-half finish remains likely.
Forest have been decent on the road, with a record of W8-D2-L6, and they have kept five clean sheets away from home. Their form against teams currently sitting 10th and below has been outstanding: W14-D2-L1 overall, with four of their five away clean sheets coming in those matches. Tottenham fall into this bracket.
Spurs’ home form this season stands at W6-D3-L7, with just two clean sheets. They have only failed to score at home twice—against Arsenal and Manchester City. Despite a poor away record, their performance against teams outside the top six has been strong: W6-D3-L2.
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Forest have stumbled recently in their push for Champions League football, winning just one of their last five away games—a 4–2 victory at Ipswich. They have conceded 2+ goals in all five of those matches, though they have averaged 1.8 goals scored per game over that stretch. Both teams to score has landed in four of those last five away games.
That said, recent data is a concern for Forest—they rank 17th for xPTS and 16th for non-penalty xG ratio over the last eight games. Spurs aren’t much better, sitting 12th and 15th in those same metrics. Defensively, both teams look vulnerable: Forest have conceded nine big chances in that span, while Spurs have allowed seven.
Both teams to score has landed in 75% of Tottenham’s home matches and 50% of Forest’s away games. Given both sides’ shaky defensive form and consistent attacking threat, both teams to score looks the most viable play here.
Only Brentford and Ipswich have conceded more corners than Nottingham Forest this season, with Forest allowing an average of 6.44 corners per game —rising slightly to 6.56 on their travels, the fourth-highest in the league. On the flip side, Spurs lead the Premier League in total corners won, averaging 7.0 per game at home—second only to Arsenal in their home fixtures. That figure rises to 7.69 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Forest have only out-cornered their opponents on three occasions this season—against Southampton, Leicester, and Bournemouth. In contrast, Spurs have won more corners than their opponents in 11 of their 16 home games, and they have hit 5+ corners in 14 of those matches. Meanwhile, Forest have conceded five or more corners in 13 of their 16 away games.
How the bookies view it: Both sides to find the net
Despite winning just five of their last 20 Premier League games—three of which came against Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester—Tottenham are favourites for this fixture.
They are currently priced at 2.5 with Forest are best priced at 2.80 with Parimatch. The draw is available around 3.75. These odds appear to be heavily data-driven, particularly when factoring in Nottingham Forest’s recent form. Over the last eight matches, Forest rank 17th for xPTS—only the bottom three sides have recorded fewer.
The markets are clearly expecting goals: over 2.5 goals is as short as 1.62, and both teams to score is priced at 1.53, implying a 65% probability.
Head to head: Spurs hold the upper hand
Since Nottingham Forest returned to the Premier League, these two sides have met five times—with Spurs winning four of those encounters. Forest have struggled in the head-to-head, scoring just three goals while conceding 10. At home, Tottenham have won both fixtures 3–1.
Discipline has also been a theme in these matchups, averaging 6.6 cards per game. Both teams have received at least one card in all five meetings, and in three of those, both sides picked up two or more cards.
Players to watch: Wood and the Tricky Trees
Nottingham Forest manager Nuno Espirito confirmed in his press conference this week that he expects Chris Wood to return to the starting XI. Wood is set to lead the line and bring a physical presence against Spurs centre-backs Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven. While he is unlikely to beat either for pace, he should relish the physical battle—particularly against Romero.
Wood has committed at least one foul in each of his last five away matches and in seven of his last eight on the road. He has also committed at least one foul in seven of his last eight games overall. With Forest desperate for points in their push for European football, this could be a scrappy, hard-fought game where tempers may flare.
While the odds may not be spectacular, Chris Wood to commit 1+ foul still represents solid value given his consistent record.
Predicted line-ups
Ola Aina and Taiwo Awoniyi are both injury concerns and look unlikely to feature for the Tricky Trees. Son Heung-Min has missed the last few games and is likely to be absent for this game as well.
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Bentancur, Sarr, Maddison; Kulusevski, Solanke, Johnson
Nottingham Forest: Sels; Williams, Milenkovic, Murillo, Moreno; Anderson, Yates; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over the last eight matches, only three teams have conceded more xGA from set pieces than Nottingham Forest. With that in mind, targeting a Tottenham centre-back for a shot on goal makes sense—particularly Cristian Romero.
Since returning from injury, Romero has recorded three shots in his last two appearances and has tallied 15 shots across 17 Premier League games this season. He thrives in physical battles and will likely enjoy the challenge against Forest’s centre-backs.
Given Forest’s tendency to sit deep and absorb pressure—especially away from home—Tottenham are expected to dominate possession and territory. This should create set-piece opportunities, particularly with Forest among the worst in the league for corners conceded, while Spurs average over seven corners per home game.
All signs point to Cristian Romero 1+ shot being a smart angle with Parimatch, with plenty of routes to get him involved in attacking moments.
This English Premier League match between Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest will be played on and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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