Torino vs Atalanta
, KO: 14:00 , Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Serie A returns this weekend with Torino welcoming Atalanta to the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino on Sunday afternoon. It is a clash that pits a side struggling to find rhythm against one of the most balanced outfits in the division.
Torino’s opening three games have been underwhelming. They have scored just once all season, despite creating a combined 2.6 xG. Their attacking numbers are among the weakest in the league, and their only point at home came in a goalless draw where they managed just a single xG while allowing 1.7 at the other end. Their xPTS total of 4.5 suggests they might feel slightly unlucky to sit on only three, but blunt finishing and defensive lapses have cost them.
Marco Baroni’s side have also been hit by injuries in the defensive line, with Perr Schuurs still sidelined, while options are stretched with Aaaron Ciammaglichella and Adam Masina both rules out.
Atalanta, in contrast, arrive in Turin on a strong footing. Ivan Juric’s men have started with four points from three games, but their performances are far more impressive than the raw results suggest. They sit fourth in the xG table, generating 4.8 xG while conceding only 1.2, leaving them with one of the best xGD figures in Serie A. Their comfortable home win over Udinese underlined their ability to create sustained pressure, and their only away trip so far ended in a hard-fought 1-1 draw.
There is a sense of stability at Atalanta, with no major off-field distractions and a fully fit attacking unit available. With Torino yet to convince, the visitors will see this as an opportunity to underline their top-four credentials.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
Atalanta are 11/10 favourites (47.6% implied probability) to win in Turin, while Torino are priced at 11/4 (26.7%). The draw is available at 5/2 (28.6%). The markets lean slightly towards Atalanta but still respect Torino’s home record.
For goals, over 2.5 is 6/5 (45.5%), while both teams to score is 19/20 (51.3%). That suggests the market expects a close game with a reasonable chance of goals, but not a wide-open shootout.
Head to Head: Finely balanced
Across the last 20 Serie A meetings between Torino and Atalanta, the record is finely balanced with Atalanta winning eight, Torino six, and six ending in draws, though Atalanta hold the edge in goals scored with 39 compared to Torino’s 30.
The recent trend has been far more open, with seven of the last 10 clashes seeing both teams score and eight of those producing over 2.5 goals, including the remarkable 7–0 win for Atalanta in 2020 and a 4–4 draw in 2022. Atalanta have averaged 2.4 goals per game across those 10 fixtures, while Torino have managed 1.5, underlining the attacking threat Juric’s side usually bring.
The most recent head-to-heads show an even split: Atalanta won 3–0 in May 2024, Torino claimed back-to-back home victories in December 2023 and August 2024, and the latest meeting in February 2025 finished 1–1. That run highlights both the volatility of the fixture and Torino’s ability to be competitive at home despite Atalanta’s stronger underlying attacking record.
Players to watch: De Roon strong option
Marten de Roon looks a strong option for a simple 1+ shot bet against Torino. The Atalanta midfielder has attempted at least one effort in every Serie A match this season, giving him a perfect three from three record.
He has taken four shots in total, including one on target, and has generated 0.2 xG. While those numbers do not suggest he is a major scoring threat, they show that he consistently finds opportunities to shoot, often from distance.
His deeper role does not prevent him stepping up around the box when play breaks down, and Torino’s defensive set-up is likely to allow space for midfielders arriving late. Given the consistency so far, backing De Roon for 1+ shot carries clear value.
Predicted line-ups
Torino (3-4-3): Israel, Maripan, Coco, Ismajli, Lazaro, Asllani, Casadei, Biraghi, Vlasic, Ngonge, Simeone
Atalanta (3-4-3): Carnesecchi, Kossounou, Hien, Scalvini, Bellanova, De Roon, Pasalic, Zalewski, Sulemana, De Ketelaere, Krstovic
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Atalanta to take three points against Torino is strongly supported by the underlying data. Their attacking metrics stand out: across the opening three matches they have averaged 14.7 shots per game, 5.3 of which hit the target. That conversion of attempts into shots on goal is among the top three in the league, showing how often they test opposition goalkeepers. They have also carved out eight big chances already, a total bettered by only Milan and Napoli.
Defensively, Atalanta’s record is equally compelling. They have conceded only 8.7 shots per game, keeping opponents down to an average of 2.3 on target. When you restrict the opposition to fewer than three accurate efforts on goal, you almost always put yourself in a position to win. That balance is reflected in their xPTS: 6.0 from three matches compared to Torino’s 4.5.
Torino, by comparison, have been wasteful and sluggish in attack. They average only 8.3 shots per game, hitting the target just 2.7 times on average. They have also created just two big chances in total, the joint lowest in Serie A. When you combine those figures with an attack that has produced a single goal, it is hard to see them troubling one of the league’s most organised defensive units.
Recent head-to-head evidence is also persuasive. In their last meeting, Atalanta produced 4.4 xG and scored five times, dominating possession with over 60%. Torino managed two goals but created only 1.7 expected goals, relying on efficiency rather than sustained threat.
The gap in shot volume, chance creation and expected points is wide enough to make Atalanta the clear value play. Everything points towards Juric’s side leaving Turin with all three points.
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