Swansea City take on Nottingham Forest at the Swansea.com Stadium on Wednesday night in the third round of the EFL Cup, with both sides hoping to use the competition as a springboard.
The hosts have enjoyed a steady start to the Championship season, sitting seventh with eight points from their opening five fixtures. Their form shows two wins, two draws and a single defeat, with recent matches highlighting their resilience. A 2-2 draw with Hull followed a 2-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday and a penalty shootout victory over Plymouth in this very competition.
Swansea’s underlying numbers are strong: their xPTS of 7.5 is the fourth best in the division, and their defensive metrics are among the most impressive. They have conceded just 0.48 non-penalty xGA per game, the lowest in the league, and are averaging only 1.5 shots on target against. While their attack is modest, scoring six goals in five games, their defensive control makes them a tough side to beat.
Forest, meanwhile, are under new management after Ange Postecoglou replaced the sacked Nuno Espirito Santo. Their Premier League campaign has been turbulent so far, with four points from four matches leaving them in mid-table. They opened with a 3-1 win over Brentford but have since failed to score in back-to-back defeats against West Ham and Arsenal.
Their only point since came in a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Underlying data reflects the struggles: Forest have an xG ratio of just 40%, showing they have been out created in most games, while their defence has looked vulnerable against stronger opposition. This match gives Postecoglou a chance to embed his ideas and test combinations in a competitive setting. For Swansea, it’s a chance to continue an unbeaten home run and showcase their defensive solidity against top-flight opposition.
How the bookies view it: Premier League side favourites
Nottingham Forest are 13/20 favourites to win at Swansea, an implied probability of around 61%, with the hosts 17/4 (19%) and the draw 3/1 (25%). The goals markets lean towards action, with over 2.5 at 10/13 (57%) and both teams to score at 4/5 (56%).
Those prices look short compared to the data. Swansea have seen under 2.5 in four of their five league matches, built on the best defensive record in the Championship, conceding just 0.48 non-penalty xGA per game. Forest, meanwhile, have failed to score in two of their last three outings and are still adapting to Ange Postecoglou’s ideas.
Head to Head: Swans struggle with these Tricky Trees
Nottingham Forest and Swansea have met nine times in recent years, with Forest holding the edge through four wins compared to three for Swansea, while three games ended level. The overall goal difference stands at 16–13 in Forest’s favour, with matches averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Forest have been particularly strong in the league head-to-heads, winning the last two Championship meetings with 5–1 and 4–1 victories in 2022 and 2021.
Players to watch: Kalimuendo the new threat
Arnaud Kalimuendo looks a strong anytime goal scorer option for Nottingham Forest in this tie. The French forward arrived from Rennes in the summer and brings pace, sharp movement, and a natural instinct inside the box. He is expected to start in what should be a heavily rotated Forest side, giving him both minutes and responsibility to lead the line.
Kalimuendo has already shown flashes of what he can offer, registering two shots off the bench against Arsenal in Forest’s last Premier League outing. That cameo highlighted his willingness to get into dangerous areas quickly, and with more time on the pitch he should be able to turn those efforts into genuine chances.
Forest’s recent attacking struggles, with only four goals in four league matches, mean Ange Postecoglou will want more threat in forward areas. Kalimuendo has the right profile to provide that as he likes to run the channels, drifts into central positions effectively, and is a confident finisher when given space inside the box.
In Ligue 1 last season he averaged around 2.3 shots per 90, with just under half of those coming inside the penalty area. That level of output suggests he will generate opportunities, especially in a cup tie where Forest are likely to rotate in extra attacking quality such as Omari Hutchinson and James McAtee in support.
Against a Swansea side that prioritises defensive structure, Forest will still need moments of sharp movement and clinical finishing to break through. Kalimuendo, with his lively cameo fresh in the memory, looks well-placed to take advantage and represents good value as an anytime scorer.
Predicted line-ups
Swansea City (4-2-3-1): Fisher, Fulton, Stamenic, Widell, Vipotnik, Eom, Tymon, Burgess, Casey, Inoussa, Parker.
Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): John, Williams, Boly, Milenkovic, Savona, Luiz, Yates, Hutchinson, McAtee, Bakwa, Kalimuendo.
Anything else catch the eye?
Under 2.5 goals looks the smart play for Swansea vs Nottingham Forest.
Swansea’s season has been defined by control rather than chaos. Four of their five league games have finished under 2.5, and they average just 1.2 goals scored per match. Their games are low event: only nine shots inside the box on average, one of the lowest totals in the Championship. Their attacking production is steady but rarely explosive, while their defence remains the strongest in the division on early evidence. Swansea have conceded just four league goals so far, with two clean sheets and only one game where both teams scored.
Forest arrive with attacking problems of their own. They have blanked in two of their last three matches and are averaging just 0.75 goals per game in the Premier League. They have managed only one goal from open play since the opening day, and across their four games, their shot accuracy sits at just 28%. Their recent defeats to Arsenal and West Ham underline their struggles to create, with only one big chance carved out in those fixtures combined.
Defensively, both teams are better equipped. Swansea concede just 2.75 shots in the box per game, while Forest’s own defensive record is more stable than their attack, with two clean sheets in four games this season. Their xPTS is low in the Premier League, but in cup football, their focus is likely to be on tightening up and easing into Postecoglou’s system.
With both sides producing modest attacking returns and leaning heavily on defensive organisation, the data suggests a cagey contest. A narrow margin of victory, most likely 1-0 either way, fits the statistical profile.
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