St Pauli fans haven't had a reason to celebrate in over a month, as the team continues to dig towards the bottom of the standings and the risk of relegation becomes more and more realistic. Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, are trying to revive their season but their inconsistency is getting in the way.
It's hard to say that St Pauli are a team that deserves to be in the Bundesliga for another season. They are currently six points clear of the relegation zone thanks entirely to the luck of there being a lot of weaker teams and their few wins over those exact teams at the bottom. If we're talking attacking football, they are levels below all other teams. They are the only side that hasn't reached 20 goals this season yet.
The only positive we can distinguish is their defensive play. If it weren't for the goal-scoring problems, St Pauli would probably be much higher in the table. There are currently only two teams that have conceded fewer goals than them in the league. Yet, the unfortunate fact right now is that the Neighbourhood Kickers are coming off three straight losses.
On the other end, Borussia Dortmund finally won a game last round, but that shouldn't impress us because they defeated another team from the bottom, Union Berlin. The situation at BVB is so negative that at the moment, winning the Champions League looks like an easier task than Niko Kovac's team reaching the Top 4 in the Bundesliga.
We haven't seen such a poor performance from Dortmund in the Bundesliga for years and it will be a miracle if they even make it to any of UEFA's tournaments next year. They are currently six points away from RB Leipzig in sixth place and every team above them is in better form.
How the bookies view it: Expected advantage but there is some value
Quite expectedly, bookmakers give the edge to Dortmund, although it should be noted that the odds are not bad at all. But given their poor form away from home, maybe they're not worth the risk. You can pick St Pauli at 3/1, the draw at 11/4, or the win for Borussia Dortmund at 17/20.
Recent head to head: It has always been a one-sided rivalry
St Pauli hadn't played in the Bundesliga for over a decade before this season, so we only have a few direct fixtures to consider. Most importantly, Borussia Dortmund won the reverse fixture earlier in the season by 2-1. And if it matters, BVB have eight wins in their last 10 official games against this rival.
Players to watch: Guirassy has more goals than St Pauli as a team
Serhou Guirassy was at the heart of the action against Union Berlin a week ago, scoring four of the six goals and getting the maximum 10/10 rating across all stats sites. With these goals, we can say that Guirassy has scored more goals in the Bundesliga since the start of 2025 than the whole St Pauli team. And earlier in the season, he scored the winning goal against this opponent in the reverse fixture.
Probable line-ups
St Pauli: Vasilj, Nemeth, Smith, Wahl, Treu, Boukhalfa, Irvine, Ritzka, Eggestein, Afolayan, Saad
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Can, Bensebaini, Gross, Gittens, Beier, Sabitzer, Adeyemi, Guirassy
Anything else catch the eye?
It's going to be an interesting clash, but not because both teams are in good form. Actually, it's quite the opposite. Borussia Dortmund are one of the weakest away sides in the Bundesliga, with only two wins in 11 games. Their goal difference away from home is 12:23, and in recent months, they conceded losses to other teams fighting for survival (2-0 to Bochum, 4-2 to Holstein Kiel).
The first match between these teams was surprisingly tight and we expect Dortmund's defence to have problems again. The BTTS odds are quite high in this case and we see a lot of value. Apart from that, we definitely don't recommend risking money picking a winner here, because Dortmund's performance is often questionable.
This German Bundesliga match between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund will be played on and kick off at 14:30. Check below for our tipsters best St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
In December 2020 we sadly 
