The Supertaca Candido de Oliveira opens the new Portuguese season on Thursday at Estadio Algarve, with Sporting CP and Benfica facing off once again. Sporting qualified as league champions after an excellent campaign, while Benfica booked their spot by winning the Taca de Portugal.
Sporting come into this on the back of a domestic double and were the most efficient team in the league last season. They collected 77 points from an expected 74, scoring 88 goals from 74 xG and conceding just 27 from 23.3 xGA. Their success was built on consistent finishing and a well-structured defence. However, they will be without Viktor Gyokeres, who has now signed for Arsenal after scoring 39 league goals. Sporting have moved quickly, agreeing a deal for Luis Javier Suarez from Almeria, with further reinforcements in midfield and defence also added.
Benfica finished level on points with Sporting but were less clinical, underperforming their expected points despite leading the league in xG and total shots. Their 77 points came from a league-high 79.4 xPTS, and they scored 84 goals from nearly 80 xG. They created more chances than anyone but often struggled to convert. Their summer business has focused on strengthening the defence, with Dahl signed permanently and further moves for attacking reinforcements expected.
Form-wise, both teams finished the league strongly. Sporting were unbeaten in their final six league games and beat Benfica 3-1 in extra time in the cup final. Benfica ended the season with 20 goals scored in their final five league matches and had the edge in xG in that cup final, despite the loss.
With a neutral venue and two high-quality teams, this should be close. Both sides are adjusting their squads, and the balance could rest on who adapts better without their key men.
How the bookies view it: No odds available
Head to Head: History of both teams scoring
Sporting and Benfica have met 20 times in their most recent meetings across all competitions, with Sporting winning eight, Benfica winning six, and six ending in draws. Sporting have had the edge lately, particularly in cup ties, including a 3-1 win in the Taca de Portugal Final and victories in both legs of the 2024 semi-final. Across these 20 matches, both teams have scored in 13 of them, including nine of the last 10 and seven of the last nine. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 11 of the 20. Sporting have scored in each of the last nine meetings, and the only clean sheet in the last eight was their 1-0 win in December 2024. Benfica’s last win over Sporting came in November 2023, and since then, Sporting have won four of the last eight and drawn three. The biggest result in this run remains Benfica’s 5-0 Super Cup win in 2019, but overall, the recent pattern points to closely fought contests with goals at both ends
Players to watch: Trincao key player for Sporting
Francisco Trincao was a key part of Sporting’s title-winning side last season, contributing nine goals and 14 assists across 34 league appearances. His underlying numbers backed it up too, with an xG of 9.2 and an xAG of 8.3, showing he was not overperforming wildly but delivering consistently. He featured in every league game, always involved, always a threat. He took at least one shot in every match and had three or more in 23 appearances, making him a regular problem for defences.
That level of involvement in the final third makes him a strong anytime scorer option here, especially with Gyokeres no longer with the club. Trincao has shown he can carry more attacking responsibility when needed, and he comes into this game on the back of a pre-season goal against Sunderland.
This fixture has often delivered chances for both sides. Nine of the last ten meetings between Benfica and Sporting have seen both teams score, and the last 20 meetings have averaged over three goals per game. With Benfica still adjusting defensively after some key player turnover and Sporting’s attacking structure well in place, Trincao is in a good position to find space and get shots away. He’s likely to play a prominent role in any goals Sporting score in the Super Cup.
Predicted line-ups
Benfica (4-3-3): Trubin, Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl, Rios, Barrenechea, Veloso, Aursnes, Pavlidis, Akturkoglu.
Sporting CP (4-3-3): Virginia, Fresneda, Inacio, Diomande, Catamo, Morita, Hjulmand, Reis, Trincao, Harder, Goncalves
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing both teams to score and each team to receive two or more cards looks a strong angle ahead of this Super Cup clash.
Benfica led the league in xG and shot volume, creating over 79 xG and scoring 84 goals. Their games were consistently open, with a high number of chances created. Sporting scored 88 goals from 74 xG, finishing far above expectation. Even without Gyokeres, their tactical structure and wide attacking options remain a threat. In the most recent meeting between the sides, Benfica generated 2.42 xG to Sporting’s 0.86, and both teams scored in a 3-1 result.
In terms of discipline, this derby is consistently feisty. Across the last 20 meetings in league and cup, the average number of cards per match is 6.6. In 18 of those 20 games, there were at least five cards shown, and both teams received two or more on most occasions. The most recent match saw three cards for Benfica and none for Sporting, but that was an exception. Over 4.5 cards is often covered well before full time in these meetings.
While Benfica kept several clean sheets in the run-in, they still conceded in two of their last four games, and Sporting’s defensive numbers dropped slightly in the final stretch. Both teams found the net regularly in the final months, and their xG numbers suggest chances should fall at both ends again.
The history of cards, the openness of both teams in possession, and the absence of Gyokeres are all factors that point toward a match where both teams score and both see multiple bookings. It’s a high-pressure rivalry with a recent trend of goals and cards, and this match is unlikely to break that pattern.
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