SPAIN and Italy both got off to winning starts in the Group of Death at Euro 2024 and can guarantee a place in the knockout stage with a win as they face off in Gelsenkirchen.
A point apiece should be enough to send both sides into the last 16 but I'd imagine each manager will be targeting a win so they can top the group and get a better draw in the knockout stages.
Spain had the trickier opener up against 2022 World Cup semi-finalists Croatia but had their 3-0 victory wrapped up at half-time, with two bets landing for our man Andy.
The Italians also got off the mark against Albania but only after the shock of falling behind inside a minute. I flagged up Nedim Bajrami as the biggest threat to Italy's defence and he showed why by grabbing a rapid-fire opener.
But the response from Luciano Spalletti's side was good and they netted twice before half-time to ease any fears of an opening night shock.
Spalletti will know his defence can't afford the same slackness against a dangerous Spanish side but Italy also showed they have the firepower to ask plenty of questions against any opponent.
How the bookies view it: Slick Spanish have the edge
Spain are favourites at 23/20 with Betfred after blowing Croatia away in their Group B opener. Italy are 13/5 shots and plenty of punters will fancy the draw at 9/4.
Head to head: La Roja out for Euros revenge
This game is a repeat of the semi-final at Euro 2020 which Italy edged on penalties after a thrilling 1-1 draw. But La Roja have held the edge since then, claiming successive 2-1 victories in the Nations League in 2021 and 2023.
Last five H2H duels:
- 15/06/2003 (UEFA Nations League) – Spain 2-1 Italy
- 06/10/2021 (UEFA Nations League) – Italy 1-2 Spain
- 06/07/2021 (EURO) – Italy 2-1 (a.p.) Spain
- 02/09/2017 (World Cup Qualifiers) – Spain 3-0 Italy
- 06/10/2016 (World Cup Qualifiers) – Italy 1-1 Spain
Players to watch: Alvaro back for Mor
Spanish wonderkid Lamine Yamal stole the spotlight in the win over Croatia but it was old campaigner Alvaro Morata who grabbed the crucial opener. He also netted in that Euro semi-final against Italy three years ago and is 13/8 at Betfred for anytime scorer.
Gianluca Scamacca didn't get many sights of goal in Italy's opener but is always a menace due to his height and power. The Atalanta striker is 11/4 to open his Euro 2024 account here.
Probable line-ups
Both managers will probably stick with the same side after positive results on Matchday One. Bilbao winger Nico Williams didn't do much in Spain's opener so might be a threat of losing his place to either Ferran Torres or Mikel Oyarzabal.
Spain: Simon, Carvajal, Le Normand, Nacho, Cucurella, Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri, Morata, Oyarzabal, Yamal.
Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Dimarco, Calafiori, Bastoni, Frattesi, Jorginho, Barella, Scamacca, Pellegrini, Chiesa.
Anything else catch the eye?
With a draw enough to send both sides through it might be a cagey game and the half-time stalemate appeals at 21/20. That bet has landed in two of the last three meetings.
Both managers are renowned for playing expansive football so this should be a decent watch. Backing BTTS pays 5/6 at Betfred but going for over 2.5 goals is better value at 11/10.
Fabian Ruiz scored a cracking goal for Spain against Croatia and got up a few times to support the attack. The midfielder is 5/4 for one or more shots on target and that looks decent value.
This Euro 2024 match between Spain and Italy will be played on Jun 20, 2024 and kick off at 20:00. Check below for our tipsters best Spain vs Italy prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
