Sirius host Mjallby on Monday in the Allsvenskan at Studenternas IP, Uppsala. This is a meeting between two sides having very different seasons, with the hosts fighting to avoid relegation and the visitors challenging at the top.
Sirius come into this game sitting 13th, just above the drop zone, with only three wins all season. Their home form has been a real problem, with just two wins in 15 games here, along with 10 draws and three defeats. They have scored only seven home goals, conceding eight, which underlines how cautious and low scoring their matches tend to be. Their underlying numbers also reflect their struggles: they are 14th on xPTS, have generated 17.0 expected goals and conceded 24.2 expected goals against.
Mjallby arrive in Uppsala as league leaders, but the underlying data suggests they are slightly overachieving. They rank 6th on xPTS despite their excellent results. They have been clinical, scoring 29 goals from 23.0 expected goals and conceding just 12 from 20.1 expected goals against. Their away form is exceptional, with five wins, two draws and just one loss, the best record in the league on the road.
This looks like a clash between a Sirius side who will try to frustrate and a Mjallby team who have been efficient, if a little fortunate, at both ends of the pitch so far this season.
How the bookies view it: Visitors narrow favourites
For this match, Sirius are priced at 28/11 to win, the draw is available at 3/1, and Mjallby are slight favourites at 1/1 to take all three points. In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 8/13, suggesting the bookmakers expect a reasonably open game with a good chance of three or more goals. Both teams to score is priced at 4/7, reflecting the history of both sides finding the net in this fixture and their tendencies to concede as well.
Head to Head: Mjallby hold the upper hand
Mjallby have a clear edge over Sirius in their head-to-head record, winning seven of the 11 meetings, while Sirius have won two and two have ended in draws. In the last seven encounters, Mjallby have won six with the other one finishing level, and Sirius have not managed a single win in that run. Goals are fairly common in this fixture, with matches averaging around 3.18 goals over the last 11 fixtures.
Players to watch: Manneh to score
Backing Abdoulie Manneh as an anytime scorer looks a strong bet here given both his form and underlying numbers. He has already scored six goals this season, slightly outperforming his 4.7 xG, which suggests his finishing has been clinical rather than lucky. He averages 4.4 shots per 90 minutes, which is an excellent volume, and 1.6 of those hit the target. That level of involvement means he is consistently getting into dangerous positions and testing goalkeepers regularly. Against a Sirius side that concedes chances at home, Manneh’s pace and directness should create openings. He remains Mjallby’s most active attacking threat, making him a sensible pick to score in this game.
Predicted line-ups
Sirius (4-3-3): Diawara, Voelkerling, Sandberg, Anker, Widgren, Lindberg, Heier, Walta, Bjerkebo, Ure, Persson
Mjallby (4-4-2): Tornqvist, Pettersson, Noren, Iqbal, Johansson, Gustavsson, Rojkjaer, Stavitski, Gustafsson, Bergstrom, Manneh
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Mjallby to win here makes sense given how the two sides approach games and what we have seen lately. Sirius’ home matches tend to be very low tempo. They have drawn 10 of 15 at Studenternas and only scored seven goals here, which shows their lack of cutting edge. Even when they keep games tight, they rarely turn them into victories.
Mjallby, on the other hand, have shown they know how to win away. Their record of five wins, two draws and just one defeat on the road is built on a disciplined defence and an ability to take their chances. Against a team like Sirius, who are passive and cautious at home, that approach is likely to work again.
One key difference is mentality. Mjallby have developed a habit of picking up points even when not at their best, while Sirius tend to settle for draws. Mjallby also have greater individual quality in attack, with players capable of punishing mistakes and making the most of limited chances.
Given the contrast in styles, Mjallby’s efficiency and confidence away from home make them a strong pick to take all three points here.
GambleAware