Shkendija welcome Qarabag to the Ecolog Arena on Tuesday for the first leg of their UEFA Champions League third qualifying round tie. The match will be played in Skopje, where the Macedonian champions will be aiming to extend an unbeaten start to their European campaign.
Shkendija came through a gruelling tie against The New Saints, needing extra time at home to progress 2-1 on aggregate. They followed that up with an impressive 3-1 aggregate win over FCSB, showing defensive structure and clinical counterattacking in both legs. They had just 40% and 37% possession in those games but scored three times from nine shots on target. Domestically, they won last season’s First League title with 70 points, conceding only 30 goals in 33 matches, and keeping clean sheets in 45% of games.
Qarabag enter this tie with a stronger European pedigree and a dominant domestic record. They cruised to the Azerbaijan Premier League title last season with 89 points from 36 games, scoring 86 and conceding just 19. They have already brushed aside Shelbourne in the previous round, winning 3-0 away and 1-0 at home, and have reached the play-off round or better in three of the past four seasons.
While Shkendija have made a few changes, FK Qarabag have kept the core of their squad intact, including Abdellah Zoubir and Marko Jankovic. They have strengthened in midfield and wide areas over the summer and look well-balanced heading into this tie. With their European experience and consistent structure, they arrive in Skopje as favourites, but they will be fully aware that Shkendija are disciplined and dangerous, particularly on the counter.
How the bookies view it: Visitors should win
Qarabag are 3/4 to win the first leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie in Skopje. The draw is available at 14/5, with a Shkendija home win priced at 19/5. Those odds imply a 57.1% chance of a Qarabag win, 26.3% for a draw, and 20.8% for Shkendija to take a lead into the second leg.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/1, which suggests a 50% chance of three or more goals. Both teams to score is 10/11, implying a 52.4% probability.
Head to Head: First Meeting
Shkendija and Qarabag have never met each other in competitive European competition before.
Players to watch: Andrade a constant threat
Leandro Andrade is Qarabag’s most consistent attacking threat and a standout candidate in the anytime scorer market ahead of the Champions League qualifier against Shkendija.
Last season, Andrade scored 17 goals in 54 appearances across all competitions, with 15 of those coming in the league, where he also added nine assists. That is 24 goal involvements in just 1,929 minutes of league football, a contribution every 80 minutes. He was Qarabag’s top scorer and regularly delivered in big moments, including a hat-trick against Sabail, two braces, and multiple 1G/1A performances.
In Europe, Andrade added two more goals, one in the Champions League qualifying second leg against Lincoln and another against FCSB in the Europa League group stage. He started all six of Qarabag’s UCL qualifiers last season, playing 510 minutes, and was trusted throughout a tough group campaign in the Europa League, appearing in all eight matches. While Qarabag struggled as a team, Andrade still managed to score and was consistently deployed in advanced roles.
He operates across attacking midfield and wide areas but is regularly involved around the box. Whether used on the right or centrally, he carries a goal threat from open play and transitions. He is also one of Qarabag’s most active runners into the box and a key option at set pieces and second balls.
Against a Shkendija side that has conceded plenty of shots and often plays deep, Andrade’s positioning and movement make him well suited to break through. He has the volume, form, and finishing quality to justify his price in the anytime scorer market.
Predicted line-ups
Shkendija (4-2-3-1): Gaye; Trumci, Cake, Webster, Fetai; Qaka, Ramadani; Latifi, Krasniqi, Tamba; Ademi
Qarabag (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazade, Medina, Caferquliyev; Bicalho, Axundzade; Andrade, Kady, Zoubir; Addai
Anything else catch the eye?
Qarabag to win is a value play built on consistency, efficiency, and experience at this level. In their last 38 competitive matches across league and Europe, they have won 30 and lost just four. Away from home, they have won nine of their last 11, including a 3-0 win over Shelbourne in Dublin.
Domestically, they had the best xPTS total in the Azerbaijan Premier League last season and backed it up with the numbers: 86 goals scored, just 19 conceded, and clean sheets in 61% of matches. Their structure travels well. They kept 10 away clean sheets last season and failed to score in only two games all year.
In their win over Shelbourne, they created seven big chances across both legs and restricted the Irish side to very little. Qarabag regularly win the shot count, and in last season’s UCL qualifying campaign, they averaged 5.1 shots on target per game through four rounds.
Shkendija deserve credit for knocking out FCSB, but they allowed 63% and 60% possession in both legs and faced 32 shots. Qarabag are far more composed than FCSB and better defensively. The hosts rely on efficiency rather than control, and Qarabag are well set up to punish that.
Given Qarabag’s away record, defensive control, and European experience, backing them to win inside 90 minutes is a well-supported bet.
GambleAware