Sheffield Wednesday meet Grimsby Town in the third round of the EFL Cup at Hillsborough on Tuesday night, with both clubs approaching the game from very different positions.
The Owls are struggling in the Championship, sitting in the bottom three with just a single point from their first five matches. Performances back that up: they are bottom five on xPTS (4.28) and their defence has been a major issue, conceding 1.90 non-penalty xG per game. They have failed to keep a clean sheet and have blanked in three of those five outings. With such a small senior squad, new boss Henrik Pedersen has leaned on young players, and that may continue here. The summer was difficult off the pitch, with financial issues limiting recruitment, while the departure of key players from last season left them short of Championship-ready depth.
Grimsby, meanwhile, are in buoyant mood. They stunned Manchester United on penalties in the previous round, one of the greatest nights in the club’s modern history. David Artell’s side sit in the top six of League Two, having lost just once in their opening five fixtures. They have picked up five points from their last three league matches and are outperforming expectations, with an xPTS return of 8.34 placing them among the strongest sides in the division. Charles Vernam and Tyrell Warren have made big impacts this season, both scoring against United.
For Wednesday, this game is a chance to build belief after a bleak start. For Grimsby, it is another opportunity to show they can upset clubs several levels above them.
How the bookies view it: Bookies undecided
Sheffield Wednesday are priced at 5/4 to win, which implies a probability of around 44.4%. The draw is 5/2, translating to 28.6%, while Grimsby are 21/10 outsiders, implying 32.3%. The market leans slightly towards the hosts, but the prices suggest a fairly even contest.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 4/5, which carries an implied probability of 55.6%. Both teams to score is shorter at 4/6, equating to 60%. Bookmakers clearly expect chances at both ends, with both teams to score rated the likeliest outcome on current prices.
Head to Head: Owls hold previous honours
That last meeting between Sheffield Wednesday and Grimsby came in the League Cup just over a year ago, when Wednesday ran out 5-1 winners away from home.
Players to watch: Vernam to do it again?
Charles Vernam looks a strong anytime scorer option for Grimsby against Sheffield Wednesday. He has found the net twice in his last six appearances across all competitions, including that crucial strike against Manchester United in the previous round of the EFL Cup. His numbers show he is carrying a consistent threat with 12 shots and seven on target during this run with most of his attempts coming when starting in the left-sided attacking role.
In league action he has been lively, scoring against MK Dons while also registering multiple efforts on goal in games against Bristol Rovers and Accrington. Add in the fact he scored on the big stage against Premier League opposition, and Vernam has shown he can produce in high-pressure moments as well as in routine fixtures.
Sheffield Wednesday’s defence is also part of the appeal. They have conceded in every league game so far, giving up an average of 1.9 non-penalty xG per match, one of the worst records in the Championship. They allow 7.5 shots on target per game, the second highest in the division, and they have already conceded eight big chances. That fragile defensive base will encourage Grimsby, who have scored in four of their last five outings.
With Vernam playing high up the pitch, regularly getting into shooting positions, and carrying confidence from his strike against United, he looks well priced to get on the scoresheet here. This is a player in form, facing a defence that is consistently being breached, and the combination makes him a value anytime scorer selection.
Predicted line-ups
Sheffield Wednesday (3-5-2): Horvath, Fusire, Lowe, Shipston, Otegbayo, Siqueira, Johnson, McGhee, Brown, Weaver, Thornton
Grimsby Town (4-1-4-1): Pym, Sweeney, Green, Rodgers, Khouri, Kabia, McJannett, Burns, McEachran, Warren, Vernam
Anything else catch the eye?
The data makes a strong case for backing both teams to score when Sheffield Wednesday face Grimsby in the EFL Cup.
Wednesday’s defensive issues are glaring. They have allowed 7.5 shots on target per game in the Championship, the second-worst figure in the league. They are also conceding over eight shots inside their box every match, a sign of consistent pressure on their back line. Crucially, they have already given up eight big chances, one of the poorest records in the division. That fragility is unlikely to disappear, especially with a small squad stretched by injuries and fatigue.
Grimsby arrive with momentum and attacking intent. They have scored in four of their last five games across all competitions, including twice against Manchester United. Their forwards are hitting the target regularly, averaging five shots on target per match in League Two. They also rank well for touches in the opposition box, sitting mid-table in their division with 50, showing they sustain pressure in the final third.
At the other end, Grimsby are no defensive powerhouse. They have conceded three goals in their last two league games, and their xG conceded sits at 4.0 in the competition, one of the higher figures among lower-league sides. They allow opponents chances and have kept just one clean sheet in their last five.
Put together, the numbers point towards both teams finding the net. Wednesday are weak defensively but still produce over eight shots in the box per game themselves, while Grimsby create enough to take advantage of lapses. With two shaky backlines and attacking intent on both sides, both teams to score looks the standout selection.
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