Salford City host Grimsby Town at the Peninsula Stadium on Friday evening in the second leg of their League Two play off semi final. Salford carry a narrow one goal advantage after a controversial first leg at Blundell Park on Sunday, where Adebola Oluwo's header settled the game despite strong Grimsby protests over an offside player obstructing goalkeeper Jackson Smith.
A place at Wembley on 25th May and a shot at League One football next season are now within reach. Grimsby must overturn the deficit. Salford know a draw is enough.
Dave Artell's side produced the stronger overall performance in the first leg despite finding themselves behind in the tie. Grimsby led most of the key metrics, finishing with 12 shots to Salford's seven, winning 89 duels to 63 and having four shots on target to Salford's three. They also recorded 30 touches in the opposition box compared to Salford's 17 while generating 0.65 xG to Salford's 0.45.
The display offered plenty of encouragement heading into Friday evening. Grimsby either won or drew 15 of their 23 away league matches this season and kept clean sheets in 35% of road fixtures. Their away xG average of 1.43 ranked second best of the four play off teams while their 24 away big chances created was the highest total in the play offs.
Their away failed to score rate of just 17% means they scored in 19 of 23 away league matches. Artell referenced Grimsby's 2-0 win at the Peninsula Stadium earlier in the season after Sunday's defeat. The underlying numbers strongly support his confidence.
Karl Robinson's side arrive with the advantage but no intention of defending deep for 90 minutes. Robinson stated publicly after the first leg that Salford will approach the second leg looking to win the game rather than simply protect the lead.
Their home profile throughout the season reflects a side capable of controlling matches at the Peninsula Stadium. Salford averaged 1.48 xG per home game while conceding only 1.04 xGA. Their home record of 14 wins, four draws and five defeats highlights the balance between attacking quality and defensive organisation.
Salford kept clean sheets in 43% of home fixtures, joint highest in the division, and conceded in only 57% of matches at the Peninsula Stadium.
How the bookies view it
Salford are narrow favourites at 6/5, implying a 38% probability of victory. Grimsby are available at 9/4, implying 27%, while the draw, which would send Salford to Wembley, is priced at 13/5, implying 28%.
Both teams to score is available at 3/4, implying 57%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 10/11, implying 48%.
Head to head: Grimsby dominant in recent meetings
Grimsby and Salford have met 13 times in League Two, with Grimsby winning six, Salford four and three ending level. The aggregate score across those meetings stands at 22-19 in Grimsby's favour. Grimsby won both league meetings between the sides this season, recording a 3-1 win at Blundell Park before a 2-0 victory at the Peninsula Stadium.
Across those two matches they scored five goals while conceding only once. The average goals per game across all 13 meetings sits at 2.54, reflecting how open this fixture has historically been. Seven of those 13 matches produced over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in the 3-1 meeting earlier this season and in the 2-2 draw between the clubs in January. The historical pattern strongly supports goals at both ends rather than another clean sheet.
Player to watch: Kabia to fire Grimsby to Wembley?
Jaze Kabia arrives at the Peninsula Stadium on Friday evening as Grimsby's biggest attacking threat. The winger has scored 17 goals across 47 League Two appearances this season while adding two assists, producing 80 shots with 38 on target. His direct running and ability to isolate defenders has made him one of the division's most dangerous wide players.
His recent form strengthens the case further. Kabia has scored nine goals across his last 10 starts, including a hat trick against Swindon, while averaging 3.1 shots per game during that run. He has registered at least one shot in all 10 starts and produced two or more efforts in nine of them.
He also caused Salford problems in Sunday's first leg, recording three shots and one effort on target in only 67 minutes. With Grimsby forced to attack chasing the tie, Kabia should again see plenty of opportunities.
Predicted line ups
Salford City 4-4-2: Young, Mnoga, Oluwo, Cooper, Garbutt, Graydon, Butcher, Austerfield, N'Mai, Cesay, Udoh.
Grimsby Town 4-1-4-1: Smith, Kacurri, McJannet, Rodgers, Staunton, Green, Turi, Amaluzor, Oduor, Kabia, Cook.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score stands out as the strongest angle on Friday evening, with both the season long numbers and the match context pointing heavily towards it.
Grimsby failed to score in only 17% of away league fixtures this season and already scored twice at the Peninsula Stadium earlier in the campaign. Their away attacking process has been one of the strongest of the four play off sides and the first leg performance offered further evidence they are capable of creating chances against Salford.
Robinson has also made it clear Salford will not simply sit on their aggregate lead, which should keep the game open throughout. Salford's home both teams to score rate of 48% and Grimsby's away rate of 52% both sit around the divisional average, but the game state pushes the probability significantly higher here.
Grimsby are chasing the tie from the opening whistle while Salford have a manager publicly committed to attacking football rather than protecting the lead. That combination creates exactly the conditions where both teams to score thrives.
Robinson himself admitted after the first leg how dangerous Grimsby remain despite Salford leading the tie. A manager speaking that cautiously about a one goal advantage tells you the tie remains wide open. The data supports that view completely.
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