Notts County host Chesterfield at Meadow Lane on Friday evening in the second leg of their League Two play off semi final. Notts County carry a one goal advantage after one of the most misleading score lines of the play offs so far at the SMH Group Stadium on Sunday.
Jayden Luker's finish from Tom Iorpenda's low cross proved the only meaningful attacking moment Martin Paterson's side produced across the entire game. A place at Wembley on 25 May and a shot at League One football next season are now within touching distance. Chesterfield must overturn the deficit. Notts County know a draw is enough.
Paul Cook's side delivered a first leg performance that dominated virtually every meaningful metric yet somehow left Chesterfield behind in the tie. They generated 1.45 xG compared to Notts County's 0.24, produced eight shots to two, hit the woodwork, missed a penalty inside the opening five minutes and controlled 64% possession across the match. Notts County's goalkeeper was not forced into a single save.
The performance offered huge encouragement heading into Meadow Lane. Chesterfield also won both league meetings between the clubs this season, including a 3-2 victory at this ground in March.
They scored in every away game against play off rivals this season and finished the campaign with the strongest combined failed to score rates in League Two at 13% at home and only 9% away. Cook said after Sunday that there is still plenty to improve but his side know exactly what level they can reach. The underlying numbers support him completely.
Martin Paterson's side return to Meadow Lane fully aware the first leg score line flattered them. Paterson admitted publicly after Sunday's win that he would be foolish to think the tie is finished and acknowledged there are significant improvements required before Friday evening.
Notts County's home profile throughout the season points towards a side consistently involved in open, high scoring matches. Their home both teams to score rate of 61% was the highest of the four play off sides while Meadow Lane averaged 3.04 total goals per game across the campaign, the highest figure in the entire division.
Notts County averaged 1.96 non penalty xG at home and created 28 home big chances, joint second best in League Two. They scored in 87% of home league matches and saw over 2.5 goals land in 57% of games at Meadow Lane.
How the bookies view it
Notts County are favourites at 16/11, implying a 38% probability of victory. Chesterfield are priced at 15/8, implying 29%, while the draw, which would send Notts County to Wembley, sits at 12/5, implying 28%.
Both teams to score is available at 10/11, implying 52%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, implying 48%.
Head to head: Chesterfield dominant in recent meetings
Chesterfield lead the overall head to head record with five wins to Notts County's three across 11 meetings. The aggregate score across those fixtures stands at 15-12 in Chesterfield's favour.
Chesterfield won both league meetings this season, recording a 2-0 home victory in December before winning 3-2 at Meadow Lane in March.
Across those two matches they scored five goals while conceding only two. Chesterfield have already shown they can win at this ground and did so earlier this season .
The average goals per game across the last five League Two meetings between the sides sits at 2.60, with three of those matches producing over 2.5 goals.
The market has consistently underestimated Chesterfield in this fixture across multiple seasons and the same case applies again here.
Player to watch: Bonis the key man for Chesterfield
Lee Bonis heads into Friday evening as Chesterfield's main attacking threat and the player most likely to drive their comeback at Meadow Lane. The striker has scored 12 goals across 46 League Two appearances this season while producing 79 shots, 38 of which hit the target.
His recent form strengthens the case further. Bonis has scored four goals across his last six starts while averaging 2.5 shots per game during that run. He has registered at least one shot in all six starts and hit the target in four of them.
He remained heavily involved in Sunday's first leg despite Chesterfield's defeat, producing two shots with one on target while winning the early penalty that struck the post. With Chesterfield forced to attack chasing the tie and Meadow Lane regularly producing open games, Bonis should again see plenty of opportunities to test the goalkeeper.
Predicted line ups
Notts County 3-4-2-1: Belshaw, Ness, Bedeau, McDonald, Tsaroulla, Norburn, Iorpenda, Robertson, Luker, Jones, Jatta.
Chesterfield 4-2-3-1: Boot, Curtis, McFadzean, Swinkels, Gordon, Stirk, Braybrooke, Mandeville, Dobra, Markanday, Bonis.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals stands out as the strongest angle on Friday evening, with both the season long numbers and the first leg context pointing heavily towards it.
Meadow Lane averaged 3.04 total goals per game this season, the highest figure of any ground in League Two. Notts County's home over 2.5 goals rate of 57% ranked among the strongest in the division while their home both teams to score rate of 61% was the best of the four play off teams.
Chesterfield meanwhile failed to score in only 9% of away league fixtures and scored in every away game against play off opposition this season, including the 3-2 victory at Meadow Lane in March.
The first leg numbers strengthen the case even further. Chesterfield generated 1.45 xG from only eight shots despite losing the game and looked dangerous throughout. Friday's second leg removes much of the caution often seen in opening matches and replaces it with a Chesterfield side forced to attack from the first whistle against the highest scoring home environment in the division.
Three of the last five League Two meetings between the clubs have gone over 2.5 goals, including the 3-2 at this ground earlier in the season. With Chesterfield chasing the tie, Notts County protecting only a narrow lead and Meadow Lane consistently producing open matches, over 2.5 goals looks strong value against a market still leaning slightly towards the under.
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