Bradford City host Bolton Wanderers at Valley Parade on Thursday evening in the second leg of their League One play off semi final. Bolton carry a narrow advantage into West Yorkshire after Amario Cozier Duberry's strike settled a tense first leg at the Toughsheet Community Stadium on Saturday.
His left footed effort from 15 yards proved the only shot on target across the entire game. A place at Wembley on 24 May and a shot at Championship football next season are now within touching distance. Bradford must find a way through. Bolton know a draw is enough.
Graham Alexander's side delivered a disciplined and organised display away from home in the first leg. Bradford restricted Bolton to one shot on target across 90 minutes while generating 0.48 xG and creating two big chances themselves.
The final scoreline leaves them behind in the tie but the overall performance offered plenty of encouragement heading back to Valley Parade. Bradford won 15 of their 23 home league matches this season, drawing five and losing only three.
Their home xG average of 1.77 per game ranked second best of the four play off sides, alongside averages of 4.26 shots on target and 8.39 shots in the box per home fixture. Their home failed to score rate of just 9% means they scored in 21 of 23 league matches at Valley Parade. Alexander said after Saturday that his side know what they create at home. The underlying numbers support him completely.
Bolton arrive with a one goal advantage but no plans to protect it. Steven Schumacher stated publicly after the first leg that his side will travel to Valley Parade looking to win the game rather than sit on the lead. Bolton finished the regular season with an xPTS total of 79.96, the strongest figure of the four play off sides, while their away profile points towards a team involved in open matches on the road.
They averaged 1.47 xG away from home while conceding 1.19 xGA. Their away record of six wins, 10 draws and seven defeats reflects that balance between attacking threat and defensive vulnerability. Bolton kept clean sheets in only 17% of away games and conceded in 83% of matches on their travels.
How the bookies view it: Bradford narrow favourites
Bradford are priced at 6/4, implying a 40.0% probability of victory. Bolton are available at 19/10, implying 34.5%, while the draw, which sends Bolton to Wembley, is priced at 13/5, implying 27.8%.
Both teams to score is available at 8/13, implying 61.9%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, implying 55.6%.
Head to head: Bradford unbeaten at home to Bolton
Bolton and Bradford have now met 10 times, with Bolton winning only once, Saturday's first leg. Bradford have won three while six meetings ended level. The aggregate score across those matches stands at 11-7 in Bradford's favour.
At Valley Parade specifically, Bradford remain unbeaten against Bolton, winning two and drawing two of the four home meetings. The average goals per game across all 10 meetings is only 1.80, reflecting how tight this fixture has historically been. Four of the last five league meetings ended in draws and three of those finished either 0-0 or 1-1.
Player to watch: Burstow main threat for Bolton
Mason Burstow looks Bolton's biggest attacking threat heading into Thursday evening. The striker registered three shots in the first leg, more than any other Bolton player, and continues to post strong underlying numbers. Across the season he has scored 12 goals, added four assists and averaged 1.85 shots per game across 46 appearances.
His recent shot volume strengthens the case further. Burstow has produced nine shots across his last three starts, averaging three per match, and his movement caused Bradford problems throughout Saturday's game despite failing to hit the target. Schumacher's commitment to attacking football rather than protecting the aggregate lead suits Burstow perfectly and should leave him with further opportunities to get shots away at Valley Parade.
He also assisted in Bolton's 1-1 draw at Valley Parade back in April. With Bradford forced to chase the game at some stage, spaces should open up for Bolton on transition and Burstow again looks their most likely route to another decisive away goal.
Predicted line ups
Bradford City 3-4-2-1: Walker, Baldwin, Wright, Tilt, Neufville, Metcalfe, Power, Touray, Lapslie, Sarcevic, Jackson.
Bolton Wanderers 4-2-3-1: Bonham, Osei Tutu, Toal, Johnston, Forino Joseph, Sheehan, Erhahon, Cozier Duberry, Rodrigues, Cissoko, Burstow.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and both teams to be carded in the same game stands out as the strongest combination angle on Thursday evening, with both the season long numbers and the match context pointing heavily towards it.
The goals angle is straightforward. Bolton kept clean sheets in only 17% of away matches this season and conceded in 83% of games on the road. Bradford meanwhile failed to score in only 9% of home league fixtures, finding the net in 21 of 23 matches at Valley Parade.
Schumacher has already confirmed Bolton will continue attacking rather than defending their lead, while Bradford have little option other than pushing forward chasing the tie. Both tactical setups naturally increase the likelihood of chances at both ends.
The cards side becomes even stronger once the occasion is factored in. Bolton committed 10 fouls in the first leg and Bradford matched them despite the relatively cautious atmosphere of an opening leg. Thursday night at Valley Parade will carry far greater intensity. Bradford are chasing the game, Bolton are protecting an aggregate lead away from home and every challenge becomes more important as the clock runs down.
Bradford throwing bodies forward late on and Bolton attempting to slow the tempo, manage territory and break up play is exactly the type of scenario where bookings build quickly. Six of the 10 previous meetings between these clubs have produced cards for both teams. With a Wembley place at stake, the pressure and physical edge should be even greater here.
GambleAware