Real Madrid face Juventus in the Round of 16 at the Club World Championship on Tuesday, with kick-off set for 8pm UK time at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Both sides progressed from tricky groups, but not without warning signs.
Madrid topped Group H with W2-D1-L0, scoring seven and conceding two. They opened with a 1-1 draw against Al Hilal, where they won the xG 2.64 to 1.88 and missed a late penalty. That was followed by a chaotic 3-1 win over Pachuca, a game they won despite losing the xG 1.06 to 1.88 and allowing 25 shots and 11 on target. They then produced their most balanced display in a 3-0 win over Salzburg, where they were in control and edged the xG 1.84 to 1.04.
Juventus finished with W2-D0-L1, scoring 11 and conceding six, but their underlying numbers raise some red flags. They beat Al Ain 5-0 from just 1.62 xG, scoring five times from seven shots on target. Against Wydad they won 4-1, despite only having three shots on target and losing the shot count, though they edged the xG 2.64 to 1.18. The 5-2 defeat to Manchester City highlighted their defensive vulnerability, conceding 24 shots, 11 on target, and losing the xG 3.92 to 1.06.
Madrid have looked more stable in the key moments, and their midfield control could be decisive here. Juventus have been ruthless in front of goal but defensively loose, and if that continues, Madrid should find enough openings to come through, even if the score line ends up closer than expected.
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How the bookies view it: Madrid to progress
Bookmakers have Real Madrid as firm favourites at 69/100 (implied 59.7%), with Juventus priced at 23/5 (17.9%) and the draw at 3/1. The market expects goals, with both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score available at 3/4, suggesting better than even chance of an open game.
Head to Head: Honours even
Real Madrid and Juventus have met 21 times in official competitions, with the head-to-head record almost perfectly balanced. Madrid have won 10 of those encounters, Juventus have come out on top in nine, and there have been two draws. The goal tally is just as tight, with Madrid scoring 26 times to Juve’s 25. It’s a rivalry full of history and fine margins, shaped by European nights at the highest level.
Since 2005, they have faced off 15 times, with Juventus edging it slightly with seven wins to Madrid’s six, along with two draws. Some of the most memorable clashes have come in high-stakes knockout ties, including the 1998 Champions League final won 1-0 by Madrid, the 2017 final where Madrid ran out 4-1 winners, and the 2018 quarter-final where they edged the tie 4-3 on aggregate. In recent years, Madrid have looked more secure at the back in these games, conceding just 0.4 goals per match across the last five meetings, while Juventus have conceded an average of 1.6. The rivalry remains evenly poised, but Madrid have had the upper hand in the biggest moments.
Players to watch: Valverde to star
Federico Valverde to have over 1.5 shots looks like a solid angle given both his recent output and the likely shape of the game. In the Club World Championship so far, he has taken four, two and three shots in his three appearances comfortably clearing this line each time.
Across the domestic season, he registered 57 shots in 36 games, and in the Champions League added another 13 across 14 matches, despite often operating from deeper positions. What is especially encouraging is his current form: 21 shots across his last six games in all competitions, hitting two or more in all six. His confidence and willingness to shoot from range is evident, especially in matches where Madrid dominate territory and possession.
That should be the case here against a Juventus side likely to spend long spells without the ball. Madrid will have time and space in front of Juve’s box, and Valverde, who often steps into those pockets and pulls the trigger, is well-positioned to take advantage. Over 1.5 shots looks well priced and well supported by the numbers.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid (3‑5‑2): Courtois; Tchouameni, Rudiger, Huijsen; Fran Garcia, Valverde, Bellingham, Arda Guler, Alexander‑Arnold; Vinicius, Gonzalo García
Juventus (3‑4‑2‑1): Di Gregorio; Savona, Kelly, Kalulu; Costa, Locatelli, McKennie, Kostic; Gonzalez, Koopmeiners; Kolo Muani
Anything else catch the eye?
This match has all the ingredients for an open game where both teams score. Across their three group games, Juventus matches produced 17 goals, while Real Madrid’s saw nine, averaging 4.3 goals per game combined. Five of those six matches went over 2.5 goals, and four saw both teams score. The numbers back up the eye test: neither side has looked watertight.
Juventus have scored 11 and conceded six, including a 5-2 defeat to Manchester City where they gave up 24 shots, 11 on target, and lost the xG 3.92 to 1.06. Even in their 5-0 win over Al Ain, they only generated 1.62 xG. Madrid’s 3-1 win over Pachuca was similarly loose, they conceded 25 shots, 11 on target, and lost the xG 1.06 to 1.88.
Both sides have attacking talent and defensive weaknesses. Juve have failed to keep a clean sheet, and Madrid were only really comfortable against Salzburg. With those trends in mind, another high-tempo, chance-filled game looks likely, with both teams to score strongly favoured.
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