Poland and Sweden meet in the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 group stage on Tuesday at the St. Jakob-Park in Basel in a match that already feels decisive for both. For Sweden, it is a chance to cement their position at the top of the group and move closer to the knockout rounds. For Poland, it’s a must-win to keep their slim qualification hopes alive after an opening defeat.
Poland come into this game after a 2-0 loss to Germany where they struggled to impose themselves despite a couple of good moments. They created two big chances but were largely second best, conceding 25 shots and giving up 17 efforts from inside their box. The xG finished 2.77 to 1.03 in Germany’s favour, underlining the gulf in quality Poland will need to close to compete here.
Sweden, on the other hand, began their campaign with a controlled 1-0 win over Denmark. The result was closer than the performance, as Sweden won the xG convincingly at 2.21 to 0.44, managed 18 shots, and allowed Denmark only seven shots inside the box. Their ability to create good chances while keeping opponents at arm’s length shows why they’re one of the tournament favourites.
Historically, Sweden have dominated this fixture, winning five of the last six meetings and scoring freely. With both sides already under pressure to deliver, Poland will have to find a way to contain Sweden’s fluid attacking play while improving their own efficiency in the final third to stand any chance.
How the bookies view it: Sweden heavy favourites
Poland come into this match as heavy underdogs at 13/1, with the draw at 6/1 and Sweden strong favourites at 1/5.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2/5, which also makes sense given Sweden’s recent results against Poland, games between them have averaged over three goals per match. If Sweden get ahead early, Poland will likely have to open up and chase, which could lead to more goals.
Both teams to score is around evens (20/21), which feels more debatable. Sweden have kept clean sheets in most of their head-to-heads, but Poland do have attacking quality, who could exploit any lapses.
Head to Head: Sweden dominate
Sweden and Poland have met six times since 2013, and Sweden have been dominant throughout. Sweden have won five of those matches, with the other ending in a draw. Over those meetings, Sweden have scored seventeen goals while conceding just two, highlighting the gap between the sides both in attack and defence.
The most recent encounter came in April 2021, where Sweden won 4-2 in what was Poland’s best attacking showing against them. Earlier games were more one-sided, including 4-0 wins for Sweden in both 2014 and 2016, and a 3-0 victory in 2015. On average, Sweden score nearly three goals per game in this fixture, while Poland average just a goal every three matches. Sweden have also kept clean sheets in four of the six meetings, underlining their ability to control these games and limit Poland’s chances
Players to watch: Back Blackstenius
Stina Blackstenius has established herself as one of Sweden’s most reliable goal threats, combining sharp movement, composure, and aerial ability. In the opening game of the Euros against Denmark, she recorded five shots, underlining how involved she is in Sweden’s attack. Over her last fifteen games for Arsenal and Sweden, she has attempted 28 shots, with 13 of those on target, almost half. That consistency in testing goalkeepers makes her a constant problem for defences. Her recent hat-trick against Denmark in the Nations League showed her ability to punish mistakes and finish chances quickly. Whether finding space in the box or pressing high up the pitch, Blackstenius is central to Sweden’s strategy and remains their biggest attacking threat.
Predicted line-ups
Poland (4‑3‑3): Szemik; Szymczak, Matysik, Wos, Wiankowska; Achcinska, Pawollek, Kamczyk; Tomasiak, Padilla, Pajor
Sweden (4‑3‑3): Falk; Lundkvist, Bjorn, Eriksson, Andersson; Angeldahl, Asllani, Bennison; Rytting Kaneryd, Blackstenius, Rolfo
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Sweden to cover a -1.5 Asian Handicap in this match looks an appealing option given how the two teams typically play against each other. Sweden’s style is based on sustained pressure, quick circulation, and stretching opponents wide, which often wears down weaker defences over 90 minutes. Poland tend to defend deep but can lose their shape when chasing a game, leaving gaps that Sweden’s wingers and full backs exploit well.
Sweden’s squad is also deeper and more experienced, allowing them to maintain intensity even when making substitutions. That often translates to late goals, turning narrow leads into more comfortable margins. Against physically and mentally fatigued sides, Sweden usually finish strong, which suits a handicap bet.
Poland are still finding their feet at this level. They are yet to show they can consistently withstand high‑tempo attacks for a full match, especially against teams who control territory and create overloads in wide areas. In a situation where Poland need at least a point, they are unlikely to park the bus for 90 minutes, and that willingness to attack could play into Sweden’s hands.
All considered, Sweden -1.5 covers both an early breakthrough and a late surge to kill the game off.
GambleAware