Paraguay and Uruguay are set to face off in a crucial 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying match at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asuncion. With both teams pushing for a direct qualification spot and separated only by goal difference, this is a high-stakes clash in the CONMEBOL campaign. Uruguay are currently third in the standings with a record of W5-D6-L3, while Paraguay are fifth with the same record but fewer goals scored.
A low-scoring contest appears likely given the approach and data from both sides. Paraguay are unbeaten in their last five matches (W3-D2-L0) and they have been strong at home, where they hold a record of W5-D1-L1. They have kept four clean sheets in Asuncion and have failed to score just twice. Their home wins include impressive results against both Argentina and Brazil. Five of their seven home qualifiers have ended with two or fewer goals. Defensively, they are among the most solid teams in the region — only Brazil and Ecuador have allowed fewer shots on target.
Uruguay have been less convincing on the road. Their away record stands at W1-D4-L2. They have scored just five goals in those matches and failed to score in three of them, although their one win was a 2-0 success against Argentina. They have kept three clean sheets away from home but continue to struggle in attack — only Peru have averaged fewer shots on target during qualifying. Like Paraguay, five of their seven away matches have finished with under 2.5 goals.
Given the strong defensive records, low attacking output, and cautious tactical setups, this match is likely to be tight, competitive, and low on goals.
How the bookies view it: Low scoring
Bookmakers view the upcoming World Cup qualifier between Paraguay and Uruguay as a closely contested match, with Paraguay priced as slight favourites at 2.58, likely due to home advantage. The draw is offered at 3.10, while Uruguay are marginal outsiders at 3.20. The betting markets also suggest a low-scoring affair, with Over 2.5 goals priced at 2.88 and Both Teams to Score at 2.25 — indicating an expectation of a tight, potentially cagey encounter with limited attacking output from either side.
Head to head: Close contest
Paraguay and Uruguay share a long-standing football rivalry, having faced each other 78 times as of their last meeting in September 2024. Uruguay holds the edge in the all-time head-to-head record with 33 wins, compared to Paraguay’s 25 victories, while 20 matches have ended in draws. Uruguay has also outscored Paraguay with 116 goals to 94. Recent encounters have been closely contested, with Uruguay winning 1–0 in both the Copa America 2021 and a 2022 World Cup qualifier, while their most recent clash ended in a 0–0 draw. The last four games between the two nations have seen a total of two goals.
Predicted line-ups
Paraguay (3-5-2): Coronel; Gomez, Alonso, Alderete; Almiron, Villasanti, Gomez, Cubas, Sosa; Sanabria, Enciso
Uruguay (3-5-2): Rochet; Araujo, Gimenez, Olivera; Nandez, Ugarte, Bentancur, De la Cruz, Pellistri; Nunez, Gomez
Players to watch: Enciso to shine
Julio Enciso is a key player to watch in this clash. The dynamic forward has played 614 minutes during the current World Cup qualification campaign, scoring twice. He has attempted 20 shots in total, with nine on target, and has consistently threatened in the final third. Enciso has registered at least two shots in five of his eight appearances and hit the target in six of those matches.
When playing at home, he has taken nine shots across four games, with six of those on target, though he is still searching for his first home goal of the campaign. His involvement remains high, and he continues to be one of Paraguay’s most active attacking outlets.
Notably, Enciso was rested for the final game of the season by Ipswich Town to allow him to focus fully on this fixture — a clear signal of the importance placed on his role for the national team heading into this decisive qualifier.
Anything else catch the eye?
A goalless draw appears to be a very realistic outcome in this matchup. Recent history between the two sides supports that view — their last four meetings have produced just two goals in total, reflecting the tight, tactical nature of this fixture.
Both teams come into the game with solid defensive foundations but clear limitations in attack. Paraguay have kept four clean sheets at home during qualifying and have shown a clear preference for control and structure. They have already recorded four 0–0 draws in this campaign, and ten of their fourteen matches have ended with one goal or fewer. At home, five of their seven games have seen no more than a single goal, reinforcing their low-scoring profile.
Uruguay have similarly struggled in front of goal, particularly away from home, where they have scored just five times across seven matches and failed to score in three of them. They, too, have been involved in four 0–0 draws during qualifying, and six of their twelve matches overall have featured one or fewer goals. Their last four away fixtures have produced a combined total of just three goals.
With both sides prioritising defensive stability and showing little in the way of attacking fluency, especially in recent qualifiers, another 0–0 draw feels not only possible but perhaps even the most likely outcome.
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