This Gold Cup quarterfinal between Panama and Honduras features two sides who took very different paths through the group stage and the contrast in quality is clear. Panama were arguably one of the most impressive teams in the competition so far, winning all three of their group matches against Guatemala, Jamaica, and Guadeloupe.
They scored 10 goals and conceded seven, but their underlying data was even more convincing: 8.9 xG (the highest of any side), just 4.5 xGA, and their xPTS return had them firmly second place in the group. They have controlled games, created chances consistently, and defended with structure.
Honduras, meanwhile, finished second in their group behind Canada. Their record of two wins and one defeat flatters them. After being thrashed 6-0 by Canada, they beat El Salvador 2-0 in a match where they won the xG 1.30 vs 0.47. Against Curacao, they edged a 2-1 win despite losing the shot count 10-9, losing shots on target 3-2, and narrowly winning xG 0.69 vs 0.50. Both teams created three big chances in that match. Across the group stage, Honduras generated only 3.0 xG and allowed 5.9 xGA, and their xPTS tally was just 4.0, meaning they outperformed their data to get through and should have finished third in the group.
The gulf is also reflected in the rankings. Panama are currently 33rd in the world according to FIFA, placing them ahead of sides like Poland, Hungary and Norway. Honduras, by comparison, are ranked 75th. With stronger form, better data, and greater squad balance, Panama are deserved favourites and should be expected to reach the semi-finals unless they underperform badly.
How the bookies view it: Panama strong favourites
Bookmakers have Panama priced at 8/13 to win in 90 minutes, making them strong favourites. Honduras are out at 4/1, while the draw is 3/1. These odds reflect Panama’s superior group stage showing.
In the goals markets, over 2.5 goals is available at 5/6, while both teams to score is priced at 4/5.
Head to Head: Honduras hold the historical battle
Panama and Honduras have a long-standing rivalry, having met 50 times overall. Honduras hold the historical edge with 31 wins to Panama’s 14, with 11 draws between them. However, that dominance is far less pronounced in recent years, and the gap has narrowed significantly.
Since 2005, the two sides have faced each other 21 times. In that period, the record is completely level: Seven wins each and seven draws. Panama have scored 25 goals in those games, while Honduras have managed 23. The balance of results reflects just how evenly matched these two sides have been in the modern era.
Looking at their five most recent meetings, Honduras have the slight edge with two wins, two draws and one defeat. Notably, Panama won 3-2 away from home in World Cup qualifying back in November 2021, while the most recent clash ended in a 1-1 draw in March 2022. Each of the last five matches has featured goals for both teams, and none has been settled by more than one goal.
Players to watch: Diaz to dismantle Honduras
Ismael Diaz heads into the quarter-final against Honduras in outstanding form. He scored twice in Panama’s 5-2 win over Guadeloupe and followed that up with a hat-trick against Jamaica in their final group match, underlining just how clinical he has been throughout the tournament. After the group stage, no player has taken more shots or registered more shots on target than Diaz, firmly establishing him as one of the competition’s standout performers.
Across the three group games, he recorded four, three and three shots, with three, zero and three on target. That combination of consistent threat and accuracy has made him central to Panama’s attacking play, constantly testing defences and forcing saves.
Diaz now leads the tournament with five goals and has scored six times in his last four starts for his country. His ability to turn chances into goals at this rate, combined with back-to-back multi-goal performances makes him a major danger heading into the knockout stage. Confidence high and form peaking, he will be one of the key figures Honduras will need to contain.
Predicted line-ups
Panama (4-2-3-1): Mosquera; Andrade, Cordoba, Farina, Davis; Griffith, Godoy; Yanis, Carrasquilla, Lenis; Rodriguez
Honduras (4-2-3-1): Menjivar; Crisanto, Maldonado, Martinez, Rosales; Flores, Arriaga; Quioto, Alvarez, Rodriguez; Benguche
Anything else catch the eye?
Panama are well positioned to score over 1.5 goals in their quarter-final against Honduras. Over their last 20 matches in all competitions, Panama have averaged exactly 2.0 goals per game. That output reflects a level of consistency that’s carried through both World Cup qualifying and the current Gold Cup. They have regularly hit multiple goals against mid-tier and lower-ranked opposition, with their only attacking drop-offs coming against stronger sides such as Mexico, Colombia, Uruguay, and Jamaica, teams all ranked higher than them in the FIFA standings.
Their Gold Cup group stage only strengthens the case. Panama scored 10 goals across three games, including five against Guadeloupe and three against Jamaica. They also lead the entire tournament for xG with 8.9, a clear sign that their goal tally is supported by strong chance creation. Ismael Diaz, now the competition’s top scorer, has been central to that output.
Honduras, meanwhile, have struggled when stepping up in class. Against nations ranked inside FIFA’s top 100, they have conceded 22 goals in 11 matches, an average of 2.0 per game and were recently thrashed 6-0 by Canada. They have shown they can handle weaker teams, but Panama, ranked 33rd, fall firmly into the category of sides Honduras tend to falter against. With Panama's attacking form and the statistical mismatch, backing them to score at least twice looks well supported.
GambleAware