When Oldham Athletic face Southend United at Wembley on Sunday, goals may be at a premium. Both sides have been involved in low-scoring games throughout the season, and all signs point to another tight, tactical battle with few clear chances.
Oldham’s matches went under 2.5 goals in 56% of their league fixtures this season, and Southend’s rate was even higher at 57%. That is a combined 53 matches out of 92 where two goals or fewer were scored — strong statistical support for an “unders” outcome.
Oldham score an average of 1.39 goals per game, but that figure is slightly inflated by a few big wins, including the 4-0 victories over Boston and Tamworth back in November, since the turn of the year they have averaged just 1.04 goals. Their general trend, especially away from home or against competitive opposition, is much more conservative. They have kept 16 clean sheets but also failed to score in 11 matches, underlining how easily games involving them can stall.
Southend are even more extreme. They scored just 1.28 per game and failed to find the net in 14 matches. Their defensive discipline has carried them — they recorded 18 clean sheets and had the second-lowest both teams to score rate in the league.
Wembley finals often carry tension and caution, especially when promotion is on the line. With both sides showing a consistent pattern of tight, low-scoring contests throughout the year, under 2.5 goals looks like the standout bet.
How the bookies view it: Oldham edge it but goals in short supply
Bookmakers currently make Oldham Athletic slight favourites to win the National League Play-off Final against Southend United, pricing them at 6/4. Southend are available at 15/8, with the draw around 11/5.
In the “To Lift the Trophy”, Oldham are 4/5, while Southend are narrowly behind at 19/20. For total goals, under 2.5 is the odds-on favourite at around 4/6, with over 2.5 available at roughly 5/4. In the “Both Teams to Score” market, No is slightly favoured at 4/5, while Yes trades at around 19/20.
Head to head: Shrimpers find a way
Oldham Athletic and Southend United have faced each other multiple times across various competitions. In their most recent encounters during this season, Southend United secured a 1–0 victory at home in March 2025, while the earlier fixture in September 2024 ended in a 1–1 draw at Oldham's ground.
Looking at their historical head-to-head record, Southend United have had the upper hand in recent years. In the last 18 meetings, Southend have won eight times, Oldham five times, and five matches have ended in draws. Southend have scored a total of 27 goals in these encounters, compared to Oldham's 14.
Predicted line-ups
There are no reported injuries or suspensions within either squad.
Oldham Athletic (3-5-2): Hudson; Raglan, Hogan, Hobson; Freeman, Lundstram, Conlon, Pritchard, Kitching; Garner, Fondop
Southend United (4-2-3-1): Andeng-Ndi; Scott-Morriss, Hobson, Lopata, Ralph; Husin, Bridge; Mooney, Fonguck, Ferguson; Kendall
Player to watch: Rolling back the years with Garner.
Joe Garner joined Oldham Athletic in January 2024, bringing with him a wealth of experience from spells at clubs including Preston, Rangers, and Ipswich. In the 2024/25 season, his impact has been hampered by injuries, but he has begun to make a mark at just the right time.
Garner has made seven starts and a further nine appearances off the bench, totalling 595 minutes. He began the campaign on the side lines and did not feature until mid-September, managing just two starts before another injury kept him out until mid-December. A further setback between January and March meant he did not make another start until the final game of the regular season.
Since then, Garner has started each of Oldham’s last three matches — including both play-off wins — scoring four goals and registering one assist. Fit and firing at the business end of the season, his presence up front adds experience, physicality, and a clinical edge that could prove vital at Wembley.
Anything else catch the eye?
While Oldham may be slight favourites on paper, the gap between these two sides is minimal — and that’s precisely why a draw in 90 minutes offers serious betting value.
Oldham finished fourth, but they limped over the line with just four wins in their final 17 league matches. That period also featured seven draws, underlining a tendency to compete without consistently killing games off. Away from home, they have drawn 10 of 23 and have often struggled to assert themselves against top-half opposition.
Southend, by contrast, arrive at Wembley built on resilience. Since February, they have drawn eight matches and lost just twice. Their play-off run reinforces the trend: 3-3 after 90 minutes against Rochdale, followed by a 1-1 with Forest Green before winning on penalties. Their formula is clear — stay compact, force the game into later stages, and back their nerve.
Both sides are organised and hard to break down. Combine that with the pressure of Wembley and what is at stake, and this feels like a contest destined to go the distance. History backs it too: three of the last five National League play-off finals have ended level after 90 minutes and gone to penalties.
GambleAware