World Cup qualification resumes in Oslo on Tuesday night as Norway welcome Moldova in Group I. Both teams arrive from contrasting positions, with Norway pushing to extend their perfect start and Moldova struggling at the bottom.
Norway’s campaign has been clinical so far. Four wins from four, 13 goals scored and just two conceded have left them in full control of their path to 2026. Their xPTS tally mirrors the real one, showing a side that has consistently translated dominance into results. A recent friendly against Finland ended 1-0, a score line that flattered the visitors. Norway outshot Finland 14 to three, limiting them to a single effort on target. Stale Solbakkn’s side are proving adept at both controlling territory and restricting opponents.
Key to this surge is the blend of established stars and developing talent. Erling Haaland remains the focal point, scoring four already in qualifying, while Martin Odegaard’s creativity underpins much of the attacking play. Norway have also seen players like Antonio Nusa and Oscar Bobb establish themselves, offering width and unpredictability. Defensively, Orjan Nyland has secured the number one shirt, providing continuity after years of flux in goal.
Moldova’s story could not be more different. They sit winless after three matches, conceding 10 goals and scoring only twice. Their 5-0 home defeat to Israel underlined the gulf in class, with Moldova allowing six big chances and losing the xG battle 3.41 to 0.69. Despite flashes from Ion Nicolaescu, goals remain scarce.
With Norway in full flow and Moldova leaking chances, the gap between the two sides looks as wide as ever. Anything other than a comfortable home victory would be a major surprise.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
The market makes Norway overwhelming favourites at 1/16, which translates to a 94% implied probability, with the draw at 14/1 (6.7%) and Moldova a long shot at 46/1 (just over 2%). Both teams to score is priced heavily towards no at 2/5 (71.4%), reflecting Moldova’s lack of threat, while yes is 21/10 (32.3%). Over 2.5 goals is just 3/10 (76.9%), showing bookmakers fully expect Norway to score multiple times.
Head to Head: Norway undefeated
Norway and Moldova have only met twice before in World Cup qualifying, both coming in the 2014 campaign, and Norway won each game 2-0. The first was in Chisinau in September 2012, when goals from Tarik Elyounoussi and Joshua King sealed the points, before Daniel Braaten and a Daniel Hoegh own goal gave them another routine win in Oslo a year later. That leaves the head-to-head firmly in Norway’s favour, with two wins from two, four goals scored and none conceded.
Players to watch: Haaland at the double
Erling Haaland looks a strong bet to score at least twice against Moldova. His recent international record underlines why. He has scored in each of his last five appearances for Norway, registering one goal in every outing, but the shot volume suggests he is due a bigger haul. Across those matches he has attempted 21 efforts, with 12 on target, averaging over four shots per game. Against Israel he hit six on target from eight attempts, and even in tighter contests such as the 1-0 win over Estonia he still managed seven efforts.
Moldova’s defence has been far less resilient. They conceded five at home to Israel and four to Italy earlier in qualifying, allowing opponents to create double figures in penalty-box shots and multiple clear chances. Haaland thrives in exactly those scenarios, where sustained pressure leads to high-quality chances in and around the six-yard box. With Norway likely to dominate territory and create heavily, Haaland scoring two or more goals looks a very realistic outcome.
Predicted line-ups
Norway (4-3-3): Nyland, Ryerson, Ajer, Ostigard, Moller Wolfe, Odegaard, Berge, Horn Myhre, Bobb, Haaland, Schjelderup
Moldova (4-2-3-1): Avram, Reabciuk, Platica, Craciun, Baboglo, Caimacov, Rata, Ionita, Bodisteanu, Postolac, Nicolaescu
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Norway to score more than three goals against Moldova makes sense when the numbers are weighed up. The hosts have shown a strong attacking process in this campaign, and Moldova’s defensive structure has repeatedly collapsed against superior opposition.
Across four qualifiers, Norway have scored 13 times. Their non-penalty xG average sits close to 2.2 per match, but finishing power has often carried them beyond that figure. The underlying attacking metrics also point up. Norway average more than six shots inside the penalty area per game and over five shots on target across this qualifying run. Those figures suggest sustained pressure that usually results in goals piling up once the first breakthrough comes.
Moldova’s defensive record makes the case even stronger. They conceded five at home to Israel, a game where they allowed 11 efforts inside the box and six clear big chances. Against Italy earlier in the group, they shipped four more while struggling to keep their defensive line intact. Their opponents are consistently producing high xG shot profiles, which is a huge red flag against Haaland and company.
Even when looking beyond raw scorelines, the xPTS table tells the story of two extremes. Norway sit perfectly aligned at the top, while Moldova rank bottom, their expected defensive numbers making them the softest opponent in the section. A Norway side that creates and converts at volume against a defence that folds under sustained pressure is a recipe for goals.
Given Norway’s firepower, the variety of attacking outlets, and Moldova’s inability to keep games under control, the probability of at least four home goals looks higher than the market is suggesting. It is the standout angle for this match.
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