Newport County host Notts County on Saturday in League Two’s opening weekend at Rodney Parade. It’s a fresh start for both clubs, who head into the new campaign with contrasting ambitions and very different approaches behind the scenes.
After finishing 22nd last season, narrowly avoiding relegation, Newport look more stable this time. David Hughes was appointed early in the summer, replacing Nelson Jardim, who took over late last July after a disorganised search. Hughes brings coaching pedigree from Manchester United’s academy and is joined by former Michael Flynn assistant Wayne Hatswell, offering EFL know-how. The Exiles have held onto key men like Matt Baker, Cameron Antwi and Bobby Kamwa, while the arrival of Wales international Matt Smith stands out as a smart pickup. He joins a group also boosted by defenders Lee Jenkins and Jaden Warner, full-back Joe Thomas, and loans from Cardiff and Manchester United including Michael Reindorf and Habeeb Ogunneye.
Notts County, on the other hand, are trying something new off the pitch. Martin Paterson has replaced Stuart Maynard as head coach, with a ‘technical board’ set up around him to make tactical decisions. It’s a bold move, and how well it works remains to be seen. The squad remains strong though, with last season’s top scorer Alassana Jatta still leading the line and Jodi Jones offering threat from wide when fit. The club have added defender Sonny Aljofree, right wing-back Barry Cotter, midfielder Tom Iorpenda, veteran Oli Norburn and quick forward Matt Dennis.
Both sides had contrasting underlying numbers last season. Notts County had the 4th-best home xPTS and 3rd-best away xPTS, while Newport ranked 22nd at home and 24th away. If Newport are to pull off an opening day result, they’ll need to outperform the data again at Rodney Parade.
How the bookies view it: County favourites
Notts County are 3/4 to win, which implies a 57.1% chance, while Newport are 4/1 (20.0%) and the draw is 16/5 (23.8%). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/5, giving it a 55.6% implied probability, and both teams to score is 3/4, implying 57.1%. The market clearly expects a Notts win in a reasonably open game, with goals at both ends, but the underlying data suggests a tighter contest.
Head to Head: Honours even
Newport County and Notts County have met 12 times in League Two since 2015, with Notts winning six, Newport winning five, and just one match ending in a draw. Notts have dominated the recent meetings, winning three of the last four without conceding a goal. Newport haven’t scored in any of those three defeats, and the only match they avoided defeat in during that spell was a 0-0 draw in November 2024.
Across the 12 meetings, there have been 37 goals in total, averaging just over 3.0 goals per game. Both teams have scored in six of the 12 games, with BTTS landing exactly 50% of the time. Over 2.5 goals has been a more regular outcome, hitting in eight of the 12 matches. That includes five of the last seven, though the most recent two both saw under 2.5 goals land.
Players to watch: Dennis the Menace.
Matt Dennis looks a strong contender in the anytime goal scorer market heading into Notts County’s season opener. After arriving from Carlisle United in the summer, the 21-year-old forward has momentum, form, and a likely starting role on his side.
Dennis only joined Carlisle in February 2025 but still ended the campaign as their top scorer, netting six goals in 16 appearances, including 11 starts. That equated to a goal every 167 minutes, or 0.54 goals per 90, in a side that was relegated. His scoring came against a range of opponents including promotion-chasing Port Vale and midtable MK Dons, showing his ability to deliver in different game states.
What strengthens his case further is the consistency of his output. Dennis registered a shot on target in nine of his 11 starts and scored in five different matches. He finished that stretch with 31 shots, 12 on target, and five big chances converted. Those are solid attacking numbers, especially in a struggling team.
He turned down a new contract at Carlisle to join Notts County on a three-year deal, and has since featured regularly in pre-season, including starting their final friendly. With Jodi Jones expected to provide service and Notts likely to dominate possession against teams like Newport, Dennis should get opportunities in and around the box.
Given his recent goal-scoring form, consistent shot output, and likely position as Notts’ central striker, Dennis offers strong value as an anytime scorer in this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Newport County (3-5-2): Tzanev; Clarke, Baker, Jenkins; Thomas, Smith, Antwi, Lloyd, Driscoll-Glennon; Kamwa, Reindorf
Notts County (3-4-2-1): Roos; Platt, Bedeau, Aljofree; Gordon, Palmer, Iorpenda, Cotter; Grant, Jones; Dennis
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Notts County double chance and under 3 goals offers strong value based on how both teams performed last season and how they match up stylistically.
Notts County were consistent away from home, picking up 37 points from 23 matches and generating 1.30 xG per game, while conceding 1.22. They allowed just 8.2 shots on target per 90 across the season and conceded fewer than 1.5 goals in 83% of their away fixtures. Martin Paterson’s side look well equipped to control low-margin games, particularly against bottom-half opposition like Newport.
Newport, by contrast, created just 0.66 xG per away match and managed only 15.33 xPTS on the road, which was the worst in the league. Even at home, they averaged just 10.3 shots per game and failed to score in 35% of their Rodney Parade fixtures. Last season’s two meetings between the sides ended 0-0 and 2-0 to Notts, and both fell under the 3-goal mark.
Importantly, Newport’s attack struggled to create high-quality chances, producing only 1.39 big chances per home game and taking just 3.9 shots on target on average. Notts conceded few big chances themselves and ranked in the top six for away xPTS and xG ratio.
With Newport likely to focus on organisation and Notts favouring control over chaos, this has the makings of a tight encounter. The visitors are unlikely to be overexposed and have enough quality to avoid defeat in what should be a low-scoring contest.
GambleAware