Newcastle return to the Champions League spotlight on Thursday night when they host Barcelona at St James’ Park. It promises to be one of the standout fixtures of the opening round, bringing together a side still finding its feet domestically and another who have already shown their attacking power in La Liga.
Eddie Howe’s team endured a frustrating start to the Premier League, failing to score in two of their first three matches and picking up just two points. The breakthrough finally came last time out, when new signing Nick Woltemade marked his debut with a goal in a much-needed 1-0 win over Wolves.
That result lifted the mood, though Newcastle’s underlying numbers remain mixed. Their xPTS of 7.05 from four games is higher than the five they have actually collected, while an xG total of 0.93 suggests their finishing has not yet clicked.
Barcelona arrive in much better spirits. They thrashed Valencia 6-0 at the Johan Cruyff Stadium with braces from Fermin Lopez, Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski. That win was the perfect response to a disappointing draw at Rayo Vallecano before the international break.
Across their first four league matches they have scored 12 goals from 9.1 xG and rank among the best for chance creation, though there are issues at the other end with 3.9 xGA conceded.
Team news plays its part. Newcastle remain without Yoane Wissa, who was brought in on deadline day to ease the burden in attack, but picked up a knee injury on international duty.
Barcelona are expected to be without Lamine Yamal, the teenager who has already contributed two goals and two assists this season but is undergoing treatment. Rashford, on loan from Manchester United, should feature again after registering his first La Liga assist against Valencia.
St James’ Park will be rocking, and the stage is set.
How the bookies view it: Barca expected to win
Barcelona are narrow favourites for the trip to St James’ Park at 23/20, an implied probability of around 47%, while Newcastle are 23/10, giving them just over a 30% chance, with the draw at 3/1 (25%).
The goal markets also point to an open contest, with over 2.5 goals priced at 1/2 (67%) and both teams to score at 4/9 (69%). The odds reflect confidence in Barcelona’s recent attacking form but still give Newcastle a fair chance on home soil, where their improving attack and the intensity of St James’ Park could play a key role.
Head to Head: Barca dominate the historical battle
Barcelona and Newcastle have met four times in European competition, with the Spanish side winning three of those encounters. Newcastle’s only success came in the first meeting back in September 1997, when they edged a famous 3-2 victory at St James’ Park.
Barcelona responded with a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture later that year, before recording two further victories in the 2002/03 season, winning 3-1 at home and 2-0 away. Across the four games, Barcelona have scored eight goals to Newcastle’s four, and there has never been a draw between the sides.
Players to watch: Raphinha to cause host issues
Raphinha looks a strong candidate to test the Newcastle defence and the line of two shots with at least one on target makes sense when weighing up his recent output. Last season in the Champions League, the Brazilian winger attempted 51 shots across 14 appearances, averaging 3.8 per 90 minutes. He hit the target 21 times, a 41% success rate, and managed to score 13 goals, showing a level of efficiency well above his 5.9 xG.
That shows he not only gets into good positions but also makes goalkeepers work regularly. In fact in his 14 Champions League games last season he registered at least two shots and one on target in 12 fixtures, failing to register a shot on target against Brest and Monaco.
So far this campaign in La Liga, Raphinha is already averaging 7.5 shots per 90 with 35% of them landing on target. With Lamine Yamal unlikely to feature, he should again be given licence to take on a high-volume shooting role, especially cutting inside from the right. Barcelona rely on him heavily for direct attempts at goal, and against a Newcastle side that concedes space in wide areas, the bet looks well-founded.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Guimaraes, Tonali, Joelinton; Murphy, Woltemade, Barnes
Barcelona (4-3-3): Garcia; Kounde, Garcia, Cubarsi, Martin; Pedri, De Jong, Casado; Torres, Lopez, Raphinha
Anything else catch the eye?
The numbers point strongly towards a game that delivers both goals and cards.
Barcelona’s attacking output has been relentless. They have registered 85 shots across their first four league fixtures, more than 21 attempts per match, with 30 hitting the target. That has produced 12 goals already, backed up by an xG of 9.1, and they are creating an average of 3.5 big chances per game. Even away from home, they have scored seven in three outings and continue to average close to six shots on target. Newcastle’s defence, meanwhile, has allowed 50 opposition efforts in four Premier League games, including 12 on target. The Magpies have conceded three goals at home to Liverpool but their xGA sits at average of 0.41 2.1 per game at St James’ Park.
At the other end, Eddie Howe’s side are beginning to show signs of life in the final third. They have produced 92 shot-creating actions already in league play and 12 shots on target across four matches, with Jacob Murphy and new signing Nick Woltemade both adding a focal point in attack. Newcastle’s xG of 0.93 is modest, but their recent improvement and home advantage suggest they will fashion chances.
Discipline is also a strong angle. Newcastle have collected five yellow cards and one red across their four league games, while opponents have drawn 55 fouls from them. Barcelona’s European record last season is even more telling: their away fixtures averaged almost five cards per game and both teams were carded in all seven of their matches on the road. The combination of St James’ Park intensity and Barca’s history under European referees makes double bookings highly likely.
Put simply, goals at both ends and cards for both sides are well supported by the underlying data.
GambleAware