Sunday’s Premier League clash at St James’ Park sees Newcastle take on Arsenal in a 4.30pm kick-off. Both sides arrive in very different places, with Arsenal pushing for the title while Newcastle are still searching for rhythm.
Eddie Howe remains under pressure to turn Newcastle into a consistent top-six challenger, but early-season form has been mixed. Their league matches have averaged just 1.2 goals per game, skewed heavily by the 3-2 defeat at home to Liverpool. Strip that out and their other four matches have averaged just 0.25 goals, underlining a pattern of low-scoring, cagey contests.
Injuries have also taken their toll. New signing Yoane Wissa has yet to feature due to a knee issue, Fabian Schar is side lined with a head injury, and Jacob Ramsey remains out until October. Howe has leaned on Alexander Isak in recent seasons, but with his summer move to Liverpool, Newcastle lack a natural goal scorer to lead the line.
Arsenal, by contrast, continue to track closely behind Liverpool in the title race. Their xG ratio is one of the strongest in the division, with Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke ensuring consistent threat from wide areas. Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz remain long-term absentees, while Martin Odegaard’s fitness is being carefully managed after a shoulder setback. Yet Mikel Arteta’s side keep finding a way to control games through possession and pressing, and Declan Rice’s influence in midfield has given them greater balance.
Recent history between the two clubs points to intensity and discipline shaping the contest. Across the last eight meetings, there have been over five cards per game, with both sides regularly finding their way into the referee’s book.
All signs point to another tight, high-energy contest at St James’ Park, where Arsenal’s attacking edge may be tested against a Newcastle side struggling for fluency but still difficult to break down.
How the bookies view it: Gunners edge it
Arsenal are narrow favourites at 13/10 (43.5%) for their trip to St James’ Park, with Newcastle priced at 5/2 (28.6%) and the draw at 13/5 (27.8%). The goals markets are tight, with over 2.5 goals trading at 26/25 (49%) and both teams to score offered at 10/11 (52.4%).
Head to Head: Goals at a premium
The last 20 meetings heavily favour Arsenal, who have won 12 compared to Newcastle’s six, with two draws. The Gunners hold a goal difference of 26–12 across those games, averaging 1.9 goals per match to Newcastle’s 0.6.
Newcastle have kept clean sheets in three of the last four encounters with their two most recent wins in this fixture came at St James’ Park by a score line of 1-0. Arsenal have won three of the last six matches, but these games have seen an average of 1.67 goals.
Recent history points to Arsenal’s edge, but Newcastle’s ability to disrupt them at home gives this game added balance, especially with both teams showing card-heavy trends this season.
Players to watch: Gordon to take the fight to Gunners
Anthony Gordon looks a strong candidate in the fouls market when Newcastle take on Arsenal. He has already shown his edge this season, committing two fouls in each of his Premier League appearances so far, and his direct style almost guarantees physical battles. The numbers become even more compelling when looking at his history against Arsenal. In his last four meetings with them, he has committed 3, 3, 0 and 2 fouls, landing two or more in three of those four matches. That is eight fouls across that stretch, averaging two per game.
The matchup suggests he will be tested again. Arsenal dominate possession in wide areas and press aggressively when they lose the ball, which often forces opposition wingers into rash challenges. Gordon thrives on carrying the ball at pace, but when Arsenal turn it back on him he is prone to tactical fouls. With Declan Rice and Jurrien Timber likely covering his side, the spaces will be tight and his defensive contribution will be unavoidable. The data points towards a repeat, making Gordon for two or more fouls a strong bet.
Predicted line-ups
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope, Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Livramento, Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton, Gordon, Elanga, Woltemade
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Calafiori, Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard, Eze, Gyokeres, Saka
Anything else catch the eye?
The standout betting angle is combining both sides carded, over three total cards, and under four goals. The statistical case is compelling.
Newcastle fixtures are averaging just 1.2 goals per game, but take out the 3-2 loss to Liverpool and the remaining matches have produced an average of only 0.25 goals. This is a side currently struggling badly in the final third, with no replacement for Alexander Isak’s output after his summer move. New signing Yoane Wissa has been side lined, leaving Eddie Howe short of firepower. Arsenal, meanwhile, are conceding fewer than 0.8 goals per game on the road, underlining their defensive stability. None of the last five league meetings between the sides has produced more than three goals, strengthening the case for a low-scoring outcome.
Where this fixture does come alive is in discipline. Newcastle games are averaging 4.2 cards, and every one of their league matches has seen both sides booked. Arsenal’s matches average 3.2 cards, with four of five also landing both sides carded. Add in the head-to-head record, an average of 5.1 cards across the last eight meetings and the referee’s notebook looks certain to be busy again.
The blend of statistics points clearly towards a scrappy, combative game that does not open up. A realistic picture is a 1-0 or 2-0 Arsenal win, or possibly a 1-1 draw if Newcastle’s home crowd drags them over the line. In every case, goals look capped, but cards are almost certain.
That makes the bet of both sides carded, over three cards, and under four goals a strong combination backed by the form of both teams and their recent history.
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