We’re in for a Monday packed with football across Europe, and the highlight of the day will be in Italy, where Napoli host AC Milan.
Inter Milan’s poor form has reignited questions about the Serie A title race, with Napoli and AC Milan sitting seven and six points behind the leaders, respectively. So this match is much more than a battle for the title of the best of the rest.
Napoli are in their best form in quite some time, having won four consecutive matches before the break. The only problem with that is that all four were against teams from the bottom half of the table.
It could be said that AC Milan are also improving despite two unexpected losses in February and March. But during that same period, they also defeated their city rivals in the derby, so they will certainly be more motivated than ever.
How the bookies view it: Napoli have a slight edge
As expected, the bookmakers have struggled to pick a clear favourite in this match, although they do give Napoli the edge in the odds. But we all know this is the kind of match that could go either way.
Right now, you can back Napoli at 29/20, while AC Milan are close enough at 21/10. It appears that bookies don’t rule out a draw either, as the odds for that are just 2/1.
Recent head-to-head: One win each this season
AC Milan has the chance to secure their first league double over Napoli in 15 years, having won the first leg 2-1. But at the same time, we mustn’t forget that Napoli beat them in the Super Cup semifinals last December.
Overall, the hosts have three wins in their last five head-to-head matches. Additionally, the Rossoneri’s last victory in Naples was in 2023.
Players to watch: Maignan to shine on his 150th appearance
Neither Napoli nor AC Milan has a clear-cut goal-scorer who can be relied upon in almost every match. This always makes it difficult to choose when it comes to betting on players.
That’s why in this match we’ll be looking at the other end of the field, namely the goalkeepers. For Mike Maignan, this will be his 150th Serie A match, and we expect more pressure from Napoli given their home advantage and good form.
Maignan made three and six saves in the two matches against Napoli this season. There’s certainly a lot of risk in this bet, but Betano are offering 21/20 odds on 4+ saves by the AC Milan goalkeeper.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
Probable line-ups
Napoli: Milinkovic-Savic, Beukema, Olivera, Buongiorno, Politano, Gilmour, Gutierrez, Lobotka, McTominay, De Bruyne, Hojlund
AC Milan: Maignan, Bartesaghi, De Winter, Tomori, Saelesmaeker, Modric, Fofana, Rabiot, Estupinan, Leao, Pulisic
Anything else catch the eye?
There’s no doubt this will be a great match between two teams with the same goal. And while Napoli are, on paper, the team in better form, we can’t deny that AC Milan are extremely tough to beat.
Lazio managed to do so only because the Rossoneri were lackluster in attack throughout the match. We believe a draw is quite possible in this match, given that Napoli concede a lot of goals at home, even against bottom-of-the-table teams.
Home advantage will also play a role, and we believe that betting on corners for Napoli is a good bet. In both matches against AC Milan, they had at least five corners, and they are third in corners in home matches in Serie A this season.
You can also wait and bet on corners live, especially if AC Milan take the lead early, which would push Napoli to attack even more.
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