The Premier League serves up another heavyweight clash on Sunday as Manchester United host Chelsea at Old Trafford. Both sides are still trying to establish rhythm early in the campaign, but the data suggests they are travelling in very different directions.
United come into this fixture under pressure. A 3–0 defeat at Manchester City last weekend highlighted the gulf that remains, while their home form continues to be unconvincing. Since Ruben Amorim took charge, the Old Trafford record reads W5-D2-L7 in the league. Dig deeper and those victories came against relegated Ipswich, Southampton, Villa on the final day amid controversy, Burnley who are tipped to go down, and Everton despite being outperformed on xG.
United rank only 14th at home for both xPTS and xG ratio, numbers that show a side not controlling games. The only positive metric is a strong shots-in-box ratio, but the volume is not translating into efficiency.
Chelsea, by contrast, arrive with reason for optimism. They are fourth away from home on xPTS and fifth on xG ratio, while ranking first for shots on target share and shots on target in the box ratio. That efficiency highlights why their underlying data away is among the best in the division. Eno Maresca’s’s team have looked balanced, with an attack that consistently generates quality and a back line restricting clear chances.
Squad news may also play a role. United remain without Matheus Cunha and Lisandro Martinez, while Mason Mount and Diogo Dalot face a race to be fit. Chelsea are still missing Levi Colwill and Liam Delap whilst Cole Palmer’s minutes will be managed.
With contrasting trends in both results and underlying performance, the pressure is squarely on Amorim to find a solution against a Chelsea side that looks well-equipped to exploit Old Trafford’s uncertainty.
How the bookies view it: Chelsea favourites despite travels
Manchester United are 37/20 to win, which implies a 35.1% chance, while the draw at 14/5 carries a 26.3% chance. Chelsea are slight favourites at 29/20, giving them a 40.8% chance of taking all three points.
The market also leans strongly towards goals, with over 2.5 priced at 13/20 (60.6% implied) and both teams to score at 8/15 (65.2% implied). That reflects the expectation of an open game where Chelsea are marginally more trusted, but both sides are fancied to get on the scoresheet.
Head to Head: Utd strong record but tide is turning
Across the last 20 meetings between Manchester United and Chelsea, United have seven wins, eight draws, and five defeats, scoring 29 goals and conceding 21 at an average margin of +0.40 per game. The recent balance has been very tight, with 10 of those 20 matches ending level.
United enjoyed a strong spell between 2019 and 2023, including a 4–0 home win in 2019 and a 4–1 victory in May 2023, but Chelsea have had their moments too, edging a 4–3 thriller in April 2024 and winning 1–0 in May 2025. Overall, the record shows a fairly even rivalry, though meetings have often been close, with 15 of the last 20 separated by one goal or finishing in a draw.
Players to watch: Caicedo at it again
Moises Caicedo looks a strong candidate for at least one shot against Manchester United. He has started all four league games for Chelsea this season and has registered exactly one shot in every match so far, finding the net twice. That’s a clear trend showing his consistency in getting efforts away. Caicedo often positions himself on the edge of the box, waiting for short clearances, which gives him regular opportunities to strike from range.
He has already attempted four shots this season, with two on target, which is a healthy return for a player nominally sitting in a deeper role. On the ball, he averages 79 touches per game and has completed 174 carries, meaning he is heavily involved in Chelsea’s build-up. The odds are surprising given this bet has landed in every game so far and Chelsea are expected to have plenty of the ball against a poor Manchester United team.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United (3-4-2-1): Lammens, Yoro, de Ligt, Shaw, Mazraoui, Ugarte, Fernandes, Dorgu, Mbeumo, Diallo, Sesko
Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez, James, Adarabioyo, Chalobah, Cucurella, Enzo Fernandez, Caicedo, Estevao, Palmer, Neto, Joao Pedro
Anything else catch the eye?
The market makes Chelsea a narrow favourite on the Asian Handicap 0 line, priced at 17/20, which implies around a 54% chance they avoid defeat. That feels too low when the numbers are lined up.
Start with Chelsea’s efficiency away from home. They rank top in the league for shots on target ratio (66.7%) and first for shots on target in the box ratio (85.7%). Those figures highlight that when they create opportunities on their travels, they are the highest quality type. They are also fifth away for xG ratio at 59.6% and fourth for expected points, showing a level of control United have not been able to match.
United’s issues at Old Trafford are clear. Despite ranking second for shots-in-box ratio at home, they sit only 14th for xPTS and 14th for xG ratio. That mismatch points to volume without quality, and the fact they are not turning those efforts into expected goals advantage is telling. In practice, United have failed to score in seven of their last 14 home league games under Amorim, conceding two or more goals in eight.
Chelsea on the other hand have been clinical in these metrics. They average six shots on target away, while conceding just three. By comparison, United allow 1.70 xGA at home on average this season. Put simply, Chelsea’s attack is efficient while United’s defence is open.
The historical record at Old Trafford underlines the bet further. United’s home wins have almost exclusively come against relegated or bottom-half sides, while top-half visitors have regularly left with victories.
At 17/20, Chelsea +0 on the Asian line looks strong value, with their data profile suggesting a far higher chance of avoiding defeat than the market is giving them credit for.
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