The Premier League returns to Old Trafford on Saturday as Manchester United host Burnley in what already feels like a crucial early-season fixture. United come into this game under mounting pressure after a disastrous Carabao Cup exit to League Two Grimsby in midweek, a defeat manager Ruben Amorim described as his team being “completely lost.” It was their first ever loss to a fourth-tier side, and it has only deepened the sense of crisis after a winless start in the league.
In two league games so far United have collected a solitary point, drawing 1-1 with Fulham and losing at home to Arsenal. Their underlying data highlights the struggles: an xPTS total of 1.96, bottom five in the division, and a 40.6% expected goals ratio. They have averaged seven shots on target per game but with poor chance quality, creating only two big chances while conceding three. Their defensive solidity has also been undermined by uncertainty in goal, with Andre Onana and Altay Bayindir both criticised.
Last season at Old Trafford they finished only 14th in the home table despite ranking fifth by home xPTS. A record of eight blanks in 19 games showed that finishing, not control, was the major flaw. The club responded this summer by investing heavily in attack. Benjamin Sesko arrived from RB Leipzig for £74m, Bryan Mbeumo joined from Brentford, and Matheus Cunha was signed from Wolves to add pace and penetration. Offsetting those moves are likely exits for Alejandro Garnacho, Antony and Rasmus Hojlund.
Burnley arrive with some momentum after a 2-0 home win over Sunderland, easing the pressure following their opening defeat at Tottenham. Their early-season profile still looks bottom-half: just one big chance created, a 38.2% expected goals share and 1.54 xGA per game. Their away record in the Championship was extraordinary with 14 wins and only eight goals conceded but it was built on heavy overperformance, with their expected points suggesting a far less dominant level.
For United, this feels like a must-win game before facing Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool. For Burnley, it is a chance to show their resilience translates to the top tier.
How the bookies view it: Red Devils hot favourites
Manchester United are strong favourites at 4/11 (73% implied chance) to beat Burnley at Old Trafford, while the visitors are 8/1 outsiders (11%) and the draw is 17/4 (19%). The goals markets are tighter, with over 2.5 goals priced at 3/4 (57%) and both teams to score almost even at 49/50 (50.5%).
The market still expects United to come through despite their poor form, but their inefficiency in attack and vulnerability at the back means goals could go either way.
Head to Head: Utd have a very strong record against Burnley
The head-to-head record between Manchester United and Burnley underlines just how dominant United have generally been in this fixture. Across the past 17 meetings in league and cup, United have won 10, drawn six and lost just once, with a goal difference of 26-11. Burnley’s only victory in that span came at Old Trafford in January 2020, a 2-0 win, while United have regularly taken points at Turf Moor, winning six of their last seven visits there. Recent clashes have tended to be competitive but low-scoring, with four of the last seven league encounters ending level, including a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford in April 2024.
United’s home wins against Burnley have often been by narrow margins including a 3-1 in December 2021 and April 2021, and 2-0 in the League Cup in December 2022, while Burnley have found goals difficult to come by, averaging just 0.65 per game across the 17-match sample. For all their current struggles, history shows Old Trafford has rarely been a happy hunting ground for Burnley.
Players to watch: Cunha shots and fouls.
Matheus Cunha stands out as a strong player prop option ahead of Manchester United’s clash with Burnley, with his shot volume and ability to draw fouls combining to make a reliable double angle. In both of his Premier League appearances for United this season, he has landed 3+ shots and been fouled at least twice. On opening day against Arsenal, he produced four attempts with three fouls won, before following up with three shots and two fouls drawn at Fulham.
This is not a short-term quirk either. At Wolves last season, in the 28 league games where Cunha started and played at least 46 minutes, he managed 3+ shots in 16 matches and was fouled 3+ times in 17 matches. Crucially, the overlap was frequent, with 13 games in which he recorded 3+ shots and was fouled at least twice.
Burnley provide the right opponent for this trend to continue. They are conceding 5.5 shots on target and 1.54 xGA per game, while United are the most-fouled side in the division. With referee Sam Barrott already showing 17 cards in three matches this season, Cunha’s direct style makes this double a very live bet once again.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United (3-4-3): Bayindir; De Ligt, Yoro, Shaw; Dorgu, Casemiro, Mount, Diallo; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha.
Burnley (4-2-3-1): Dubravka; Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartman; Ugochukwu, Cullen; Anthony, Mejbri, Larsen; Foster.
Anything else catch the eye?
The most appealing approach to this game is in the props markets, with Burnley over 1 card, Manchester United over 0 goals and Burnley over 0 goals combining well.
Manchester United matches have been foul-heavy this season. No side has been fouled more often in the Premier League, and three of their players in Patrick Dorgu, Matheus Cunha and Bruno Fernandes are ranked inside the league’s top ten most-fouled individuals. It is no surprise that all three of United’s competitive fixtures so far, against Arsenal, Fulham and Grimsby, have seen both teams pick up cards. Referee Sam Barrott averaged 4.7 yellow cards per game in the Premier League last season and has already shown 17 cards across his three matches in all competitions this term. That makes the case for Burnley to receive at least two bookings particularly strong.
Backing United to score at least once is also supported by the data. They may be inefficient, but they are still averaging nine shots in the box and seven shots on target per match. Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo have already shown flashes of promise, while Matheus Cunha’s direct running continues to stretch defences. Against a Burnley side conceding 1.54 xGA goals per game, the chance of United finding the net is high.
Burnley can contribute too. They scored twice in victory over Sunderland and are averaging 5.5 shots on target across their two league matches. United have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding three big chances in two games, and goalkeeper Andre Onana remains error prone. Burnley’s organisation and set-piece threat provide them with routes to goal.
This treble ties together cards, attacking volume and defensive frailty.
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