The Premier League season opens with a heavyweight clash as Manchester United host Arsenal at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon. It is a meeting between two clubs entering the campaign with very different trajectories but equally high expectations.
United’s 2024/25 home record was one of the poorest in their modern history, winning just seven of 19 league matches at Old Trafford. Under Ruben Amorim, they managed only four home victories last season against Ipswich, Southampton, Everton and Aston Villa on the final day. Yet their underlying numbers told a different story with the fifth-best home xPTS (32.10) and a positive xG differential which suggests poor finishing and conversion rates were the main culprits.
Amorim has moved to fix that with a rebuilt attack. Benjamin Sesko arrives from Leipzig after scoring 13 goals in 33 games, joined by Matheus Cunha from Wolves and Bryan Mbeumo from Brentford. Marcus Rashford has departed on loan to Barcelona, but the squad is fresher and better balanced.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have reinforced a squad that finished second for a third straight season. Last term they were the league’s second-best away side (W9–D–2L), boasting the best away defensive record with only 17 goals conceded. Their control-first style saw them lead the league in away xGA (0.89) and shots in the box conceded.
Mikel Arteta’s side has added Sporting striker Viktor Gyokeres to solve their centre-forward problem, as well as Martin Zubimendi, Noni Madueke, Christian Norgaard and Kepa. Outgoings have been minimal, and depth looks stronger than ever.
The rivalry brings its own intensity, but the numbers suggest a tactical battle between a United side looking to turn control into goals and an Arsenal team built on disciplined away performances. The first game of the season will quickly test whether the summer rebuilds have addressed last year’s shortcomings.
How the bookies view it: Gunners slight favourites
Arsenal are slight favourites at 11/10, implying a 47.6% chance of victory, with the draw at 13/5 (27.8%) and Manchester United at 11/4 (26.7%). The goals markets lean towards an open contest, with Both Teams to Score priced at 8/11 (57.9%) and Over 2.5 Goals at 41/50 (54.3%). This suggests the market expects goals at both ends and at least three in total, despite last season’s home and away profiles for these sides pointing more towards a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Head to Head: Fortress Old Trafford
Manchester United have the stronger long-term record against Arsenal at Old Trafford, winning nine, drawing five and losing three of the last 17 meetings. United have scored in 15 of those games, underlining their regular success in breaking down the visitors’ defence. Arsenal, however, have enjoyed more success in recent years.
They are unbeaten in their last two trips to Manchester, drawing 1-1 in March 2025 and winning 1-0 in May 2024, while United’s last win in the rivalry came back in August 2022. Since that victory, United’s overall record against Arsenal stands at W0-D2-L4. Arsenal have also shown remarkable attacking consistency at Old Trafford, last failing to score there in November 2012 and netting in each of their last 12 visits.
Players to watch: Saliba to have his work cut out
William Saliba to make two or more tackles looks a strong play given the match-up and his defensive workload in tougher away games. The Arsenal centre-back attempted 32 tackles in 18 Premier League away matches last season, winning 19, and made at least one tackle in 13 of them. Notably, against top-half opposition away from home, he registered 19 tackles in nine games, making at least one in eight of those fixtures. The only away matches where he did not make a tackle came against Crystal Palace, Brentford, Leicester and Everton, all matches where Arsenal dominated the ball and faced little sustained pressure.
Manchester United are expected to start with Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo, a front three combining pace, movement and physical presence. Sesko’s aerial threat will occupy him centrally, while Cunha and Mbeumo’s channel runs should pull him into direct duels. With United averaging 8.53 shots in the box per home game last season and now boasting a stronger front line, Saliba should have ample opportunities to reach 2+ tackles.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United (3-4-3): Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Shaw; Dalot, Fernandes, Ugarte, Dorgu; Mbeumo, Sesko, Cunha.
Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Zubimendi, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score and both teams to collect at least one card looks a strong combination for this fixture when you weigh up recent trends and match dynamics.
Starting with goals, while Arsenal were an elite defensive side away from home last season, they still saw both teams score in 37% of away matches although against top-half attacks, that figure rose to 55%. United’s home xG averaged 1.42 per game, and with the arrivals of Sesko, Cunha and Mbeumo, their forward line is far more capable than the one that failed in key games last term. Arsenal’s away xG of 1.74 per game shows they carry plenty of threat themselves, with Gyokeres now leading the line.
In terms of shots, United averaged 8.53 shots in the box per home game, while Arsenal managed 7.84 per game away. Both sides create enough in dangerous areas to suggest chances at each end.
The card element is heavily supported by data. Referee Simon Hooper booked both teams in 22 of 24 Premier League games last season (91.7%), and 15 of the last 20 United-Arsenal meetings have also seen this land. This fixture is typically combative, and both managers demand high pressing and aggressive recovery runs, increasing foul counts.
Arsenal’s pressing game often leads to tactical fouls high up the pitch, while United’s midfield will likely need to break up Arsenal’s spells of possession. Hooper also oversaw 20 games with four or more cards last season, showing his willingness to book players from both sides.
With attacking upgrades on show, a rivalry atmosphere, and a referee who consistently produces cards for both teams, this combined bet offers strong statistical grounding.
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