Mamelodi Sundowns face Fluminense in what is effectively a knockout game in Group F of the Club World Cup. With Borussia Dortmund expected to take at least a point against Ulsan Hyundai, who have lost both their matches so far, it is a must-win for Sundowns. They sit third on three points, one behind Fluminense and Dortmund, and anything short of a victory will see them go home.
That game state alone sets this match up to be wide open. Fluminense know a draw is enough to go through, but a win would secure top spot and potentially a more favourable draw in the last sixteen. Sundowns can not afford to sit back, and that attacking intent should lead to chances at both ends.
The numbers support a goals angle. Ulsan’s involvement has already seen goals flow with eight in total across their two games. Sundowns beat them 1-0 but conceded four in a thrilling loss to Dortmund. Across their two games, Sundowns matches have produced four goals on average, with both fixtures featuring at least two big chances at either end.
Fluminense have also been positive. While their 0-0 draw with Dortmund was low scoring, they dominated the shot and xG count. Then against Ulsan they ran up 25 shots and scored four in a come-from-behind win.
With Sundowns needing to go for it and Fluminense capable of punishing mistakes, over 2.5 goals looks a strong option. The urgency and open playstyle we are likely to see should lead to a high tempo, chance-heavy contest.
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How the bookies view it: Fluminense win with goals
Fluminense are favourites at 10/11, with the draw at 11/4 and Sundowns out at 10/3. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 47/50, which reflects expectations of an open match, especially with Sundowns needing to win. Their 4-3 loss to Dortmund and Fluminense’s 4-2 win over Ulsan support that line. Both teams to score is 17/20, suggesting a good chance of goals at both ends
Head to head: First meeting
Mamelodi Sundowns and Fluminense have no prior head‑to‑head meetings before this match in the 2025 Club World Cup—this will be their first-ever encounter on record
Predicted line-ups
Mamelodi Sundowns (4-2-3-1): Williams, Mudau, Kekana, Cupido, Lunga, Allende, Mokoena, Ribeiro, Sales, Zwane, Rayners
Fluminense (4-3-3): Fabio, Xavier, Silva, Freytes, Rene, Santos, Martinelli, Hercules, Arias, Canobbio, Everaldo
Players to watch: Mokoena to star
Teboho Mokoena has been deployed in a deeper midfield role for Mamelodi Sundowns, but he has shown real attacking intent in this tournament. Against Ulsan in the opening game, he had four shots—one on target, one off target, and two blocked. He followed that up with three shots against Dortmund, including one that struck the post, one off target, and one blocked. That level of output is notable given his positioning and underlines the freedom he’s had to push into forward areas.
Only seven players in the entire tournament have registered more shots than him after two games, which is exceptional considering he is playing in a defensive midfield role. Domestically, he has taken 34 shots from his 19 starts, registering at least one shot in 17 of those 19 games—consistently offering a threat from distance and late runs into the box.
With Sundowns needing to win to progress, the game state is likely to demand even more attacking involvement from midfield. Mokoena’s ability to join the attack and strike from range could prove crucial if they are to break down a well-organised Fluminense side.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score looks well-priced in this decisive Group F encounter between Mamelodi Sundowns and Fluminense, with plenty of indicators pointing toward chances at both ends.
Sundowns have shown throughout the tournament that they can create opportunities against quality opposition. They scored three times against Borussia Dortmund, outshooting the Bundesliga side 16 to eight and creating four big chances in that match. Even in their more cautious opener against Ulsan, they still managed 13 shots and found the net in a tight 1-0 win.
Fluminense, on the other hand, have quietly put together a strong campaign. Against Ulsan, they were 2-1 down with 26 minutes to go but rallied to win 4-2, showing they have the attacking firepower to respond under pressure. Importantly, they have registered at least 14 shots in both matches so far and averaged six shots on target per game.
While their defence is organised, they have not been flawless. Ulsan created one big chance and scored twice, while Dortmund forced five saves in a goalless draw. Given Sundowns’ attacking intent and the stakes involved, it’s unlikely Fluminense keep them out for 90 minutes.
This is a match with plenty on the line. Sundowns will commit men forward in search of goals, while Fluminense are well-equipped to exploit space going the other way. Both sides have consistently posted strong shot metrics, and with knockout qualification hanging in the balance, both teams to score looks like a strong play.
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