Borussia Dortmund gave Mainz a hard reality check, but their eyes are still set on a Top 4 finish and a historical debut in the Champions League. Beating a relegation side like Holstein Kiel shouldn't be a problem, although anything is possible in the Bundesliga nowadays.
Mainz are a few wins away from making history and there is no room for errors in the final seven rounds. The team sits in fourth place, which grants a spot in the Champions League. But there are three other teams within three points from them and any defeat could mean losing their place in the Top 4.
Losing to Borussia Dortmund was always a possibility but Mainz got completely destroyed. The good thing is they are back home for this clash and haven't lost at their stadium since late October. And even better – they are facing the weakest team in the league that is almost 100% going down to 2. Bundesliga.
Holstein Kiel had a couple of good performances recently but the last two games proved that their level is not good enough for the Bundesliga. The team is dead last in the league and a whole eight points below safety. With seven rounds remaining and a tough schedule, it is almost certain they will return to the lower tier.
How the bookies view it: Mainz to get back to their winning ways
Bookies share the opinion that Holstein Kiel's chances in this match are minimal. Yet there is still some value in the odds, with Mainz available at 1/2. The draw is priced at 7/2, and the win for the visitors at 6/1.
Recent head to head: Mainz can make it two wins this season
Mainz and Holstein Kiel had met twice before this season, both times in the DFB Pokal. Holstein eliminated Die Nullfunfer in 2011 but lost the second meeting in 2017. The teams met for the first time in the Bundesliga in November 2024, and Mainz managed a decisive 0-3 away from home. By the looks of things, this will be their last encounter for a while.
Players to watch: Burkardt to punish Holstein Kiel again
Jonathan Burkardt didn't do any good work in the game against Borussia Dortmund and must make it up to his team with goals in this important match. The young German already has 15 Bundesliga goals this season, his best campaign so far with the team. He also scored one goal in the reverse fixture against Holstein Kiel in November.
Probable line-ups
Mainz: Zentner, Hanche-Olsen, Jenz, Costa, Mwene, Sano, Amiri, Caci, Nebel, Weiper, Burkardt
Holstein Kiel: Weiner, Zec, Becker, Ivezic, Javorcek, Knudsen, Rembert, Porath, Gigovic, Skrzybski, Machino
Anything else catch the eye?
Considering the home team's overall form, it's impossible to expect anything other than an outright win. Mainz haven't lost at home since October, with six wins and two draws during this period so far. Holstein Kiel, on the other hand, are the league's weakest away side, with just one win in 13 games.
However, it's interesting how many goals they score as visitors, even when they lose. Their goal difference is 20:33, which means they have an average of 4.08 goals per game. They have covered the over 2.5 line in 12 of 13 games. Mainz are certainly not the highest scoring team, but in this game in particular, we expect to see a lot of goals. We think we will even take advantage of the risky market for BTTS.
This German Bundesliga match between Mainz and Holstein Kiel will be played on and kick off at 14:30. Check below for our tipsters best Mainz vs Holstein Kiel prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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