Luton Town host AFC Wimbledon at Kenilworth Road on Saturday in their opening League One fixture. It’s the Hatters’ first third-tier match since 2019 and comes after a disappointing Championship campaign that saw them suffer back to back relegations. Wimbledon, meanwhile, return to League One via the League Two play-offs, looking to re-establish themselves at this level after promotion under Johnnie Jackson.
Luton’s fall last season was less about system failure and more about underperformance in key areas. Their underlying numbers were mid-table calibre. They ranked 14th for total xPTS with 59.54, including top ten home xPTS and one of the best home xGA records in the Championship. The club stuck with its principles too long last summer but have changed tack this time. New manager Matt Bloomfield has seen six new players arrive by mid-July. Kal Naismith, George Saville and Nahki Wells bring proven quality across the spine, while Elijah Adebayo, Jordan Clark and Reuell Walters remain from a squad that still contains plenty of Championship-level players.
Wimbledon’s return to League One has been built on solid foundations. They had the best defensive record in League Two last season, conceding just 35 goals. Their xPTS tally of 76.57 was third-best in the division, driven by a deep back line that includes Ryan Johnson, Riley Harbottle and Joe Lewis. There are questions about their attacking options though. Matty Stevens finished as top scorer but ended the season with one goal in his last 19 games. Ali Smith returns from Lincoln after a six-goal season in midfield, while Nathan Bishop joins to replace on-loan goalkeeper Owen Goodman.
Luton are clear favourites, but Wimbledon’s structure should keep them competitive. It’s a fascinating clash of styles to open the season, with experience and pedigree on one side and unity and discipline on the other.
How the bookies view it: Luton strong favourites
Luton are strong favourites at 8/15, with the odds implying a 65% chance of victory, while the draw is 37/10 (21%) and Wimbledon are outsiders at 11/2 (15%). The market leans towards a relatively open game, with over 2.5 goals priced at 3/4 (57%) and both teams to score at 19/20 (51%), though neither is strongly favoured. These prices reflect confidence in Luton’s quality and home advantage but also suggest Wimbledon’s defensive structure could keep things competitive.
Head to Head: Hatters hold the upper hand
Luton and AFC Wimbledon have met seven times in league and cup competition since 2014. Luton have won four of those meetings, including each of the last three: a 2-0 away win in 2018, a 2-1 EFL Trophy victory in 2017, and a 2-2 home draw in their most recent clash in April 2019. Wimbledon have beaten Luton twice, with their last win coming in a 4-1 home victory in League Two back in February 2016. Luton have won both of their home league games in that span without conceding. The head-to-head slightly favours Luton overall, especially in recent seasons.
Players to watch: McGuinness threat from set pieces
Mark McGuinness looks a strong candidate to register 2+ shots or 1+ shot on target against AFC Wimbledon, based on how he ended the 2024–25 Championship season. In his final six league appearances, he recorded 10 shots, averaging 1.67 per game, and registered three shots on target. He had two or more shots in three of those six matches, and at least one shot in five of them. His most active attacking performances came in home games against Coventry (three shots), Blackburn (three), and Bristol City (two), all of which followed a familiar pattern: Luton dominating territory and creating set-piece opportunities for their centre-backs to attack.
Wimbledon conceded plenty of corners in pre-season and often drop deep, inviting pressure. That defensive shape could give Luton consistent dead-ball situations, where McGuinness becomes a key target. He had 47 shots across 43 starts last season, and his xG total of 3.6 came almost entirely from headers and set-pieces. With Luton expected to have sustained spells in the final third and good delivery from wide areas, he will be in prime positions again.
If Luton control the game as expected, McGuinness should get at least one decent chance. Backing him for 2+ shots or 1+ shot on target fits the data and the game state.
Predicted line-ups
Luton Town (4-2-3-1): Walton; Walters, Makosso, Andersen, Naismith; Saville, Lonwijk; Clark, Baptiste, Alli; Wells
AFC Wimbledon (3-5-2): Bishop; Johnson, Harbottle, Hutchinson; Ogundere, Smith, Reeves, Maycock, Seddon; Stevens, Bugiel
Anything else catch the eye?
Luton to win and under 4.5 goals looks a smart way into this match. The Hatters were strong at home in the Championship, posting 1.34 xG and conceding just 0.78 xGA per game. Only two teams allowed fewer expected goals at home. That control should translate to League One, where their defensive organisation and ball retention are likely to be even more effective.
They kept games tight despite facing higher-quality opposition last season and rarely engaged in wild shootouts. Only four of their 23 home league games went over 4.5 goals. In attack, they have options: Nahki Wells offers movement and Jordan Clark can create from deeper areas. But Matt Bloomfield’s system tends to prioritise control over chaos.
Wimbledon are similarly set up to keep games narrow. They conceded more than one goal in just nine of 46 games last season. On the road, their average xGA was 0.95 and they allowed fewer than ten shots per game. Even when they lost, the margins were small. They will defend in a low block, play with two sitting midfielders, and look to frustrate.
The numbers reinforce this outlook. Wimbledon away games averaged just 2.17 total goals last season. They had 21 clean sheets and only one defeat all season saw over 4.5 goals. With no standout attacking threats and a preference for compactness, they are unlikely to play into Luton’s hands.
A home win is likely, but it will probably be methodical rather than explosive. Luton to win and under 4.5 goals combines the best of both trends.
GambleAware