Ludogorets host Ferencvaros at the Huvepharma Arena on Wednesday in the first leg of their Champions League third qualifying round tie, with both sides looking to take a crucial step towards the playoff round and maintain momentum from strong domestic and European starts.
The Bulgarian champions come into the game unbeaten domestically this season and riding a strong run of form. They have taken maximum points from their three league games, scoring nine and conceding just once. Their defence has remained a strength over a long period as Ludogorets have kept a clean sheet in 56% of league matches last season and 72% of home games, winning to nil in 61% at home. They have conceded just three goals across four UCL qualifiers this summer but needed extra time to eliminate both Dinamo Minsk and Rijeka, showing some vulnerability under pressure.
Ferencvaros arrive following a 6-4 aggregate win over FC Noah, where their attacking quality came through but their defensive balance was tested. Domestically, they won the Hungarian title last season with 69 points, scoring 64 and conceding 31. They have scored in 88% of league games and failed to find the net in just four of their last 31. Away from home though, they kept just 35% clean sheets and won to nil in less than a third of matches.
In terms of recent trends, Ferencvaros’ last 10 league games saw both teams to score land six times and over 2.5 goals in seven. Defensively, they have been shaky on the road and conceded 2+ in five of their last ten. Their attack remains consistent, but the openness of their recent matches suggests Wednesday’s contest could be far from tight.
With both teams scoring goals and showing soft spots defensively, especially when pressed this first leg has the makings of a finely poised, high-quality tie.
How the bookies view it: Hosts slight favourites
The odds for this game suggest a closely matched tie, with a slight edge given to the hosts. Ludogorets are priced at 7/5 to win the first leg in Razgrad, which implies a 41.2% chance of victory. Ferencvaros, meanwhile, are available at 11/5 (31.3%), with the draw set at 12/5 (29.4%). The market clearly respects Ludogorets’ strong home record, but not by a wide margin.
In the goals markets, Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 11/10 (47.6% implied), while both teams to score is 17/20 (54.1%).
Overall, the odds reflect a tight, competitive match, but also leave room for value, especially in goal-based markets given the trends on both sides.
Head to Head: Honours even
Ludogorets and Ferencvaros have met five times since 2019, with the head-to-head record evenly balanced. Both sides have two wins apiece, with one draw, and Ludogorets have outscored the Hungarians 9-7 across those games. Their meetings have consistently produced goals, with both teams scoring in four of the five matches and over 2.5 goals landing in the same number.
Ferencvaros have never kept a clean sheet against Ludogorets, while Ludogorets' only shutout came in a 3-0 away win during the 2019 Europa League group stage. Their most recent encounter was a 2021 friendly in Budapest, which Ludogorets won 3-1. Given this history, the head-to-head record strongly supports bets on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.
Players to watch: Joseph the main man
Lenny Joseph looks a strong candidate in the anytime goal scorer market heading into Ferencvaros’ Champions League qualifier against Ludogorets. After finishing the 2024/25 campaign with eight goals from just 1,606 minutes, the former Grenoble forward has started this season in promising form and appears to have nailed down a starting role in the front three.
Last year, Joseph made just two league starts for Ferencvaros but made them count. In the penultimate round he produced two shots in a 3-0 win over Vidi, before scoring the decisive goal in a 2-1 win away at Gyor a week later, firing four shots with three on target. Despite often featuring from the bench, he ended the campaign averaging a goal every 200 minutes.
Since the start of the 2025/26 season, Joseph has started all three competitive matches and has looked sharp in front of goal. He scored in the league draw with MTK Budapest and followed that up with a goal and assist in the 4-3 win over FC Noah. He already has two goals and one assist from three appearances and seems to be playing with confidence and intent.
His shot volume is also encouraging. Across those three starts this season, Joseph has already had five efforts on goal with two on target and has been getting into good scoring areas consistently. With Ferencvaros expected to have opportunities against a Ludogorets side that conceded in both legs against Dinamo Minsk, Joseph’s current form, improved game time, and proven end-product make him a strong anytime scorer option at a likely attractive price.
Predicted line-ups
Ludogorets (4-3-3): Bonmann; Nedyalkov, Piotrowski, Vidal, Stanic; Kurtulus, Son, Verdon; Pedrinho, Tekpetey, Marcus
Ferencvaros (3-4-3): Dibusz; Gartenmann, Pesic, Levi; Szalai, Otwos, Makreckis, Raemaekers; O'Dowda, Toth, Joseph
Anything else catch the eye?
There’s strong statistical backing for both teams to find the net in Razgrad.
Ludogorets have scored in 89% of league matches over the last 12 months and in all four of their Champions League qualifiers this season. Although they boast a 56% clean sheet rate in the league, that figure drops in more competitive environments. In Europe, they have conceded in three of four matches this summer, including twice at home to Rijeka. Their clean sheet rate across all competitions falls from 72% at home to just 39% away, suggesting a side more vulnerable when pushed.
Ferencvaros offer a consistent attacking threat, scoring in 88% of their league games and failing to score in just four of their last 31 matches. More importantly, their defensive numbers suggest they will give Ludogorets chances: they kept just 35% clean sheets away from home and have seen both teams to score land in six of their last 10 league games. In that same stretch, they have conceded two or more goals in five matches.
With attacking players like Cauly Oliveira Souza, Jakub Piotrowski, and Barnabas Varga likely to feature, and both sides averaging over 1.9 goals per game in their domestic leagues last season, both teams to score is backed by recent form, goal trends, and signs of defensive vulnerability in high-pressure matches.
GambleAware