The Merseyside derby returns on Sunday as Liverpool host Everton at Anfield in the Premier League. This fixture has historically been one of the most intense rivalries in English football, and recent trends suggest we can expect another tight and hard-fought contest.
Liverpool have started the season with four wins from four. Results, however, have not been as comfortable as they look on paper. They required late winners against both Newcastle and Burnley, while against Bournemouth they let a two-goal lead slip before rallying to win 4–2. Their 1–0 home victory over Arsenal was ultimately settled by a long-range free kick rather than sustained dominance. Even so, the numbers underline why they remain unbeaten: Liverpool rank third for overall xPTS at 7.55 and are producing 2.26 non-penalty xG per game while conceding just 0.70. Defensively, they are one of only two teams yet to concede a big chance this season.
Everton’s start has been less convincing. They have a record of W2-D1-L1 and sit in mid-table with 5.39 xPTS, placing them 11th. At home they have failed to score once already, and while their overall non-penalty xG sits at 1.23, they are allowing 1.00 per game at the other end. That translates to a modest xG ratio of 55.2%, suggesting they are competitive but far from dominant. Away from home they beat Wolves 3-2 and lost to Leeds 1-0, whilst their underlying attacking threat is among the lowest in the division.
Injury issues add to Everton’s challenge. Jarrad Branthwaite is unavailable with a thigh injury, while Oleksandr Mykolenko is also a doubt. Liverpool have been largely at full strength, though they continue to manage fitness across their squad.
With Liverpool’s perfect start contrasting Everton’s mixed form, the derby once again looks tilted in favour of the hosts, though the nature of this fixture means tension and discipline will be decisive.
How the bookies view it: Hosts heavy favourites
Liverpool are 10/21 to win, which implies a 67.7% chance, while the draw at 19/5 gives 20.8%, and Everton at 6/1 are rated just a 14.3% chance. The market also expects goals, with over 2.5 priced at 8/13 (61.9% implied) and both teams to score at 4/5 (55.6% implied).
Taken together, the odds point strongly towards a Liverpool win at Anfield, with bookmakers predicting a match that is more likely than not to see at least three goals and both sides getting on the scoresheet.
Head to Head: Reds dominate over the Blues
Across the last 20 Merseyside derbies in all competitions, Liverpool have dominated with 11 wins, 7 draws and just 2 defeats, scoring 29 goals and conceding 14 at an average margin of +0.75 per game. At Anfield, they have been especially strong, winning 1–0 in April 2025, 2–0 in October 2023 and February 2023, and 5–2 back in December 2019.
Everton’s rare bright spots include a 2–0 win at Anfield in February 2021 and a 2–0 victory at Goodison in April 2024, but overall the balance remains heavily tilted towards Liverpool. Low-scoring encounters are also a theme, with 12 of the last 20 finishing under 2.5 goals, highlighting the cagey nature of recent derbies despite Liverpool’s general superiority.
Players to watch: Dewsbury-Hall loves a foul
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall looks an excellent candidate to commit 2 or more fouls in the Merseyside derby, a fixture that always carries intensity and edge. The Everton midfielder has started all four league matches this season and already picked up three yellow cards, committing nine fouls in total.
That works out at 2.25 fouls per game, so the numbers point strongly towards repeat offences in a contest where Liverpool’s midfielders, particularly Florian Wirtz and Alexis Mac Allister, will draw contact. He also made three fouls in each of his last two games, showing a clear trend. With Bet365 offering 7/4, an implied probability of 36.4%, there looks to be value when his actual output suggests a better than even chance of success. In a derby where tackles are guaranteed, Dewsbury-Hall stands out for 2+ fouls.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Szoboszlai, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike
Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford, O'Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Garner, Gueye, Iroegbunam, Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish, Beto
Anything else catch the eye?
The standout betting angle for this Merseyside derby is Liverpool double chance, under four match goals, and both teams to be carded. Each leg fits the statistical profile of how these games tend to play out.
Liverpool double chance is the most secure foundation. Their home dominance is remarkable: across their last 60 Premier League matches at Anfield they have record of W45-D12-L3. One of those defeats came as far back as October 2022. They have also started this season with four wins from four, supported by an xPTS return of 7.55. They are averaging 2.26 non-penalty xG while allowing just 0.70, and crucially have not conceded a single big chance in the league. Everton, by contrast, sit mid-table on 5.39 xPTS and a modest non-penalty xG of 1.23.
Under four goals is well supported by the head-to-head record. At Anfield, 13 of the last 18 Merseyside derbies have finished under 3.5, and 17 of the last 18 under 4.5. Even when Liverpool have won comfortably, the score lines have rarely been high-scoring affairs. This season Liverpool needed late winners against Newcastle and Burnley and edged Arsenal 1–0, underlining that goals are not flowing freely. Everton’s attack is among the least productive, with only four big chances created so far.
Both teams to be carded adds further value, especially given the referee appointment. Darren England takes charge, and this season across five matches in all competitions he has averaged 3.6 cards with all five games seeing both sides booked. Last season in the Premier League he averaged 4.74 cards across 19 fixtures, showing at least one card to each team in 17 of them. In a derby context, the probability rises further.
This builder captures the likely script: Liverpool to avoid defeat, a capped goal count, and discipline tested on both sides.
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