With relegation confirmed for both sides, Leicester and Ipswich meet at the King Power Stadium on Sunday, still with a financial incentive in play, finishing 18th is worth £3 million more than 19th, which could sharpen focus in an otherwise low-stakes encounter.
Leicester’s collapse has been dramatic. Despite scoring twice in their last home game (vs Southampton), they had previously gone nine home games without a goal. Defensively, they have been just as bad: over their last four games, they have conceded 2.95 non-penalty xGA per match, and 2.13 xGA across their last eight. They are 20th for xPTS over that stretch and have conceded 12 big chances, creating just one.
Ipswich, though, remain just as leaky. They have kept two clean sheets all season and have conceded in every match this year. They rank bottom for shots conceded in the box over the last eight games and have allowed 10 big chances in that span. Only Leicester, Brentford, and Southampton have faced more shots on target away from home. The Tractor Boys have scored in eight of nine away games against the bottom half, scoring two or more in six.
How the bookies view it: Goals, Goals and more goals
Leicester are priced at 11/8 to win, with Ipswich at 2/1 and the draw at 13/5. Despite being favourites, the Foxes have been woeful at the King Power: they have failed to score in nine of their last 10 home matches and have managed just two clean sheets all season.
The goal markets reflect the chaos expected: Over 2.5 goals is 19/25, Both Teams to Score is 8/13, and combining the two in a Bet Builder-style selection returns a tidy evens (1/1) – strong value in a matchup between two of the league’s most vulnerable backlines.
Head to head: Nothing to split them
Leicester City and Ipswich Town have met 73 times in all competitions, with the Ipswich holding a slight edge historically. The Tractor Boys have won 27 of those encounters, while the Foxes have claimed 26 victories, with the remaining 20 ending in draws. Their most recent fixture at Portman Road finished 1-1, while they played each other twice last season in the Championship with both games ending with the same score line. Ipswich have lost just twice against Leicester in their last 14 meetings. Despite their differing trajectories over the last decade, their head-to-head record suggests little to separate them on the pitch.
Players to watch: Jamie Vardy
Jamie Vardy will bring the curtain down on his remarkable Leicester City career on Sunday — and the club is planning a fitting farewell. Signed from non-league Fleetwood Town for £1 million in 2012, Vardy has become a true club icon, scoring 199 goals in 499 appearances across all competitions. Now, he is aiming to complete a historic double: 200 goals in 500 games, all in one final outing at the King Power Stadium.
Jamie Vardy has recorded 53 shots in the Premier League this season, 22 of which have been on target, resulting in eight goals. At the King Power Stadium, he has produced 40 shots across 18 home appearances, with 18 hitting the target and five finding the net. He has managed two or more shots on target in six of those 18 home games, and at least one shot on target in 12.
Against sides currently outside the top six and playing at home, Vardy’s output has been more consistent. In 12 such matches, he has registered 33 shots, with 16 on target, hitting two or more on target in half of those games.
Predicted line-ups
Leicester City are without Mads Hermansen, Ricardo Pereira, Abdul Fatawu, Bobby Decordova-Reid, and Stephy Mavididi, who all remain sidelined through injury. Harry Winks is also expected to miss out, having fallen out of favour in recent weeks. Ipswich Town will travel without Arijanet Muric, Wes Burns, Jaden Philogene, Chiedozie Ogbene, and Nathan Broadhead, all of whom are unavailable due to injury. Leif Davis returns from suspension and is available for selection, although Jacob Greaves may keep his spot at left-back after a string of solid performances.
Leicester City (4-2-3-1): Stolarczyk; Justin, Coady, Faes, Thomas; Ndidi, Skipp;McAteer, Ayew, El Khannouss; Vardy
Ipswich Town (4-2-3-1): Palmer; Tuanzebe, O’Shea, Burgess, Greaves; Morsy, Taylor; Hutchinson, Chaplin, Enciso; Delap
Anything else catch the eye?
Julio Enciso continues to be a nightmare for defenders. Across 13 starts for Ipswich Town and Brighton, he has been fouled in every game, drawing 22 fouls — an average of 1.69 per start. But his recent form takes that to another level.
In his last two appearances, Enciso has been fouled eight times, and 12 times in his last four games — including one where he played just 45 minutes. That kind of output shows he is not just consistently drawing contact – he is doing it in volume, regardless of minutes played.
Enciso’s direct dribbling and low centre of gravity make him a magnet for fouls, especially against unstructured back lines. With Leicester struggling defensively, Enciso is a prime candidate to be fouled.
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