Leeds United begin their Premier League return with a home fixture against Everton at Elland Road on Saturday. It is a meeting between a side that dominated the Championship last season and an opponent who tightened up considerably under David Moyes.
Leeds arrive off the back of one of the most dominant home campaigns in second-tier history. They won 18 of 23 games at Elland Road, scoring 61 goals and conceding just 12. Their underlying numbers backed up the results, averaging 2.17 xG and just 0.51 xGA per match at home. Daniel Farke has reshaped the squad with a focus on size and physicality, signing Anton Stach, Jaka Bijol, Sebastiaan Bornauw, and Lukas Nmecha, alongside goalkeeper Lucas Perri to replace Illan Meslier. Sean Longstaff and Gabriel Gudmundsson add further depth.
Everton travel with a very different profile. Last season, they finished with the 13th-best away record in the Premier League, winning six of 19 games but scoring only 16 goals which was the lowest away total in the division. Their 74% away fail-to-score rate reflected long-standing attacking struggles. Moyes’ appointment in January sparked a strong turnaround, with the Toffees earning the 11th-most points in the league from his 20 matches in charge. Defensively, they have been hard to break down, conceding only 20 goals in that run.
This summer, Everton added Villarreal striker Thierno Barry for £27.6m, whilst on loan midfielder Carlos Alcaraz from Flamengo joined permanently. Neal Maupay, Ashley Young, and several squad players departed.
The match pits Leeds’ high-volume attacking approach against Everton’s compact, low-event away style. For the hosts, this is an early opportunity to prove they can carry their Elland Road dominance into the topflight. For Everton, it is a test of whether Moyes’ organisation can nullify one of last season’s most relentless home sides.
How the bookies view it: Leeds narrow favourites
Leeds are narrow favourites at 7/5, which carries an implied probability of 41.7% and reflects their dominant home record in the Championship. Everton are only slightly bigger at 11/5, an implied probability of 31.3%, despite finishing with the lowest away goal tally in the Premier League last season, a sign of the market’s respect for David Moyes’ defensive organisation and top-flight experience. The draw is priced at 12/5, giving it an implied probability of 29.4%, underlining expectations of a tight contest. In the goals markets, over 2.5 is 11/10 (47.6%) and both teams to score is 5/6 (54.6%), suggesting the likelihood of goals at both ends but not necessarily a high-scoring match.
Head to Head: Honours even
The recent head-to-head record between Leeds and Everton has been evenly balanced, with both sides enjoying success. Everton won the most recent meeting in February 2023 with a 1-0 victory at Goodison Park, while the reverse fixture earlier that season ended 1-1 at Elland Road. The Toffees also claimed a convincing 3-0 home win in February 2022, but their last away trip to Leeds in August 2021 finished 2-2.
Leeds have had their moments too, winning 1-0 away at Goodison in November 2020 and edging a 2-1 League Cup tie in 2012. They also recorded a 2-0 friendly victory in 2015. Across the last six Premier League meetings, Everton have the upper hand with three wins, two draws and just one defeat, though Leeds have managed to stay competitive at home with draws in their last two Elland Road fixtures.
Players to watch: Grealish or Ndiaye in for rough treatment
There is still some uncertainty at right-back for Leeds, with Daniel Farke likely to choose between Sam Byram and Isaac Schmidt. Whoever gets the nod will face a difficult assignment against Everton’s wide players, as Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye are expected to start either side of new striker Thierno Barry. Both Grealish and Ndiaye are excellent at drawing fouls. Grealish, even with limited minutes, was fouled 16 times in just seven league starts last season, while the season before he won 27 fouls in only 10 appearances. Ndiaye is equally effective in one-v-one situations, having been fouled 51 times across 29 starts last campaign.
With numbers like these, markets around Grealish or Ndiaye to be fouled two or more times are understandably short. The smarter approach is to target the Leeds right-back to commit fouls, since either Byram or Schmidt will be locked in direct duels for most of the evening. Under the Elland Road lights on Monday, in front of a fired-up crowd for Leeds’ Premier League return, the game is likely to be played at a high tempo and with plenty of physical battles. That intensity should increase the chances of Leeds’ full-back being caught out and resorting to fouls, making the right-back foul market one of the most appealing betting angles for this match.
Predicted line-ups
Leeds United (4-3-3): Perri, Byram, Rodon, Struijk, Gudmundsson, Tanaka, Ampadu, Stach, James, Piroe, Gnonto
Everton (4-3-3): Pickford, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko, Gueye, Garner, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye, Barry , Grealish
Anything else catch the eye?
While Everton’s away matches were low-scoring last season, there are reasons to expect both sides to find the net here. Leeds’ home matches in the Championship were rarely one-sided in terms of chances created as they allowed 2.04 shots on target per game and conceded in 11 of 23 fixtures. Even with the step up in competition, their attacking style under Daniel Farke tends to leave spaces for opponents to exploit, especially in transition.
Everton may have failed to score often on their travels last term, but Moyes’ arrival has improved their attacking structure. In his 20 games back in charge, they averaged 1.35 goals per match overall, including scoring away at Liverpool, Newcastle, and Brighton all strong home teams. The summer signing of Thierno Barry adds pace and direct running, which could stretch Leeds’ back line. Carlos Alcaraz also offers midfield energy and late runs into the box that increase goal threat.
At the other end, Leeds’ home numbers suggest they will create plenty. They averaged over six shots on target per game last season and generated more than twice the xG of their opponents at Elland Road. Everton’s away defensive record is solid, but they still conceded 8.47 shots in the box per game on their travels, a figure that will be tested by Leeds’ front line.
This combination of Leeds’ attacking volume and Everton’s improved forward options makes both teams to score appealing. A goal for the visitors would likely open the game up further, giving Leeds more opportunities to capitalise and increasing the likelihood of both sides scoring.
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