The Champions League play-off round reaches its conclusion on Tuesday as Kairat Almaty host Celtic in Almaty, with a lucrative £40m group-stage prize awaiting the winner. The tie is finely balanced after a goalless first leg in Glasgow, where Celtic dominated possession but created too little to trouble the visitors.
Celtic arrive in Kazakhstan unbeaten domestically, winning all three Premiership matches without conceding. They lead the league for xG at 5.3, big chances created with 14 and touches in the opposition box at 109. Their defence has also been watertight, conceding an xG of just 1.0 across their league games. Brendan Rodgers, however, faces pressure both on and off the pitch, with supporters voicing anger at the lack of summer signings following the departures of Kyogo Furuhashi, Nicolas Kuhn and Greg Taylor, and Jota’s long-term injury. Rodgers insists his side can repeat the feat of previous qualifiers where they drew at home then won away, but the margin for error is slim.
Kairat, the reigning champions of Kazakhstan, have already come through three rounds to reach this stage. They overturned a 2-0 away defeat to KuPS by winning 3-0 at home and edged past Slovan Bratislava on penalties. They are unbeaten at home in Europe this season, keeping three clean sheets, and are pushing again in their domestic league, averaging over two goals scored per game and conceding fewer than one. That balance between attack and defence makes them a real threat here.
With Celtic’s control and Kairat’s resilience, this contest could be decided by fine margins, and whoever settles quickest in Almaty will likely book their place in the group stage.
How the bookies view it: Visitors favourites
The bookmakers make Celtic clear favourites at 8/13, which implies a 62% chance of victory, while the draw is priced at 10/3 (23%) and Kairat Almaty are outsiders at 17/4 (19%). Goals are also expected, with over 2.5 trading at 13/20 (61%) and both teams to score at 7/10 (59%).
Head to Head: Only second meeting after the first leg
The first leg was the only time these two sides have faced each other in a competitive game.
Players to watch: Set pieces could be key and tip the Scales in Celtic favour
Liam Scales looks an intriguing outsider for an anytime scorer in the second leg against Kairat Almaty. The Celtic centre-back has quietly become a real set-piece threat, highlighted by his four shots in the first leg at Celtic Park. That output came directly from Celtic’s dominance in dead-ball situations, with Brendan Rodgers’ side forcing an extraordinary 15 corners. Kairat defended well but relied on last-ditch clearances and blocks, meaning that sustained pressure is likely to create further opportunities for defenders arriving late into the box.
Domestically, Celtic also lead the Premiership in opposition box touches and big chances created, ensuring a steady stream of service from wide areas. With Adam Idah and Daizen Maeda drawing defenders, space can open up for Scales to attack deliveries. In a cagey tie that may well be decided by a set piece, Scales offers genuine long-shot value to find the net.
Predicted line-ups
Celtic (4-3-3): Schmeichel, Johnston, Scales, Carter-Vickers, Tierney, McGregor, Hatate, Nygren, Forrest, Idah, Maeda
Kairat Almaty (4-2-3-1): Zarutskiy, Costa, Satpayev, Martynovich, Arad, Glazer, Tapalov, Mrynskiy, Edmilson, Gromyko, Sorokin
Anything else catch the eye?
The best angle for the second leg looks to be Celtic to win and under 4.5 goals. The Scottish champions may have struggled for a breakthrough in the first leg, but their underlying numbers suggest they should still progress.
In Scotland, Celtic have been dominant without being reckless. They have scored six goals from 5.3 expected goals in three league games, while not conceding once. Their defensive profile is excellent, with opponents generating just 1.0 xG against them in total. They also rank top for big chances created, registering 14 in the Premiership, and lead the league in touches in the opposition box. That blend of attacking volume and defensive control makes them well-suited to navigating tense qualifiers.
The first leg against Kairat Almaty reflected those patterns: Celtic had 75% possession, 15 corners and 29 touches in the box, but only 0.56 xG as Kairat Almaty defended deep. The Kazakh champions will likely play a similar way at home, but it is hard to see Celtic failing to create again, especially given Brendan Rodgers’ tactical adjustments and the addition of Yang Hyun-jun’s energy in the second half in Glasgow.
Goals, however, may not flow freely. Kairat Almaty have conceded only four goals across eight Champions League qualifiers this summer and none at home. Domestically Kairat Almaty concede just 0.85 goals per game. Celtic may need patience, but their quality should tell across the ninety minutes.
A controlled Celtic win looks the likeliest outcome, and with both teams defensively solid, a high-scoring game seems unlikely. Celtic to win and under 4.5 goals combines their superiority with the expectation of a measured contest.
GambleAware