Italy and Germany meet at San Siro in the first leg of their UEFA Nations League (UNL) quarter-final on Thursday night, with the winner over both legs playing either Denmark or Portugal in the semi-finals.
Italy finished in a commendable second place in Group 2 of League A in the previous phase of the competition, winning four of their six games as they finished above Belgium and Israel, and only behind France on goal difference.
They did lose 3-1 at home to Les Bleus in their last competitive outing in November, a first defeat in six matches for them, and so should still hold some confidence going into their clash on Thursday.
Also in League A, Germany, unlike Italy, topped their group, finishing above Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia & Herzegovina in Group 3 in an unbeaten campaign that saw them pick up four wins and two draws from their six games.
In fact, the Germans are unbeaten since losing to eventual winners Spain 2-1 in extra-time of the quarter-finals of the 2024 UEFA European Championships, and so will be a tough nut to crack.
Germany are also unbeaten in six previous H2Hs against Italy over all competitions, which is another good omen for them as they head to San Siro.
How the bookies view it: Both evenly matched
Interestingly, BoyleSports have given both Italy and Germany an equal chance to win at 8/5, with a draw priced at 11/5.
Recent head-to-head: Germany's five-star performance
These two nations last met in the UNL in 2022, but in the group stage. It was the only time where Germany scored five against Italy in a repeat of the 5-2 scoreline in a friendly in 1939.
The Germans raced into an astonishing 5-0 lead through goals from Joshua Kimmich, Ilkay Gundogan, Thomas Muller and a Timo Werner brace, before Wilfried Gnonto and Alessandro Bastoni replied late on for the Italians.
Players to watch: Tonali swaps Toon for tricolor
Sandro Tonali helped Newcastle win their first piece of major domestic silverware in 70 years as he helped the Magpies beat Liverpool 2-1 in the Carabao Cup final last weekend, and he is certainly an important cog in Italy's midfield.
Likewise, Jamal Musiala is so important for Germany and is often the difference-maker. He is 3/1 to score anytime with BoyleSports.
Predicted lineups
Italy's most notable absentee is Federico Dimarco, as the Inter Milan wing-back remains out with a hamstring injury.
Germany are missing a lot more stars, notably Florian Wirtz through suspension and starting goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen through injury, while the likes of Kai Havertz will also miss out.
Italy: Donnarumma, Buongiorno, Calafiori, Bastoni, Di Lorenzo, Tonali, Frattesi, Barella, Cambiaso, Retegui, Kean.
Germany: Nubel, Kimmich, Schlotterbeck, Rudiger, Mittelstadt, Andrich, Gross, Sane, Musiala, Lewelling, Kleindienst.
Anything else catch the eye?
Only one of the last eight H2Hs have not seen both teams to score, so backing Both Teams To Score (BTTS) again at 8/11 with BoyleSports seems wise. The 5-2 scoreline last time out means we have also seen 23 goals in total scored in normal time over those eight meetings at an average of almost three per match, so backing Over 2.5 Total Goals at Evens with BoyleSports also seems sensible.
This UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Germany will be played on and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Italy vs Germany prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
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