The Championship serves up one of its fiercest rivalries this weekend as Ipswich host Norwich at Portman Road on Sunday in the East Anglian derby. The match kicks off at midday and promises to be a fiery contest with plenty riding on it.
Ipswich come into the game in strong shape. They sit near the top end of the xPTS table, having consistently produced high-quality performances. Their underlying numbers are excellent, with a non-penalty xG of 1.14 per game and one of the best defensive records in the league at just 0.62 xGA. They have been especially effective at home, pressing aggressively and limiting opponents to few clear chances. Results have generally matched their data, and the Tractor Boys look well-placed to mount another promotion challenge.
Norwich, by contrast, are struggling badly on the numbers. They are conceding a huge 2.90 xGA on the road and rank among the weakest sides overall for shots and touches in the box conceded. They have shipped 11 goals across their last four matches, and their xPTS sits near the bottom of the division, underlining how often they have been second best. Even their attacking output has dipped, with the Canaries reliant on moments rather than sustained control.
The historical picture does not flatter Ipswich either, as they have not beaten their local rivals since April 2009. In the years since, Norwich have dominated the derby, and that record will add to the intensity of the occasion.
Still, momentum looks to be with Ipswich this time. Their blend of sharp attacking play and defensive organisation is a sharp contrast to Norwich’s openness, and with Portman Road sold out for one of the season’s biggest fixtures, the hosts have a major opportunity to end a 16-year wait for bragging rights.
How the bookies view it: Tractor Boys set the end awful run
Ipswich are 7/10 favourites, which equates to an implied probability of 58.8% that they finally end their long wait for a derby victory. Norwich are priced at 16/5, giving them just a 23.8% chance of taking the points, while the draw is 16/5, also at 23.8%.
The goal markets point towards an open contest. Over 2.5 goals is 8/11, a 57.9% likelihood, while both teams to score is 4/5, reflecting a 55.6% probability. The prices suggest bookmakers expect goals at both ends and a strong chance of the match producing at least three in total, though Ipswich are still regarded as the more likely winners.
Head to Head: Norwich unbeaten in 16 years
Norwich hold the edge in the East Anglian derby, leading the all-time series with 48 wins compared to Ipswich’s 45, with 27 draws between the sides. Recent history has been firmly in Norwich’s favour, with 12 victories in the 24 meetings since 2003, while Ipswich have managed just four wins in that time alongside eight draws.
The rivalry, often referred to as the “Pride of Anglia,” has seen Norwich dominate the fixture in recent years, and Ipswich have not beaten their local rivals since April 2009. Overall, Ipswich average around 1.42 goals per game against Norwich but concede roughly 1.22, underlining how closely contested the derby has been over the long term, even if the balance of power has shifted towards Norwich across the past decade and a half.
Players to watch: Dara set piece threat
Backing Dara O’Shea 1+ shot and Ipswich to score makes strong appeal when looking at the underlying data. O’Shea has taken seven shots in seven league games so far, averaging one per match, with almost all of them coming from set pieces. Ipswich have been dangerous in these situations, ranking among the better sides in the Championship for xG generated from dead balls, which consistently puts O’Shea in positions to get an effort away.
That angle is boosted by Norwich’s weakness in this area. They have conceded 5.77 xG from set plays already, one of the worst records in the division, underlining how vulnerable they are when defending crosses and second phases. Ipswich’s threat at Portman Road only sharpens the case, with goals in six of their seven league games, including tallies of one against Southampton, two against Derby, five against Sheffield United and two against Portsmouth. With O’Shea’s aerial involvement and Norwich’s set-piece frailties, the bet has strong statistical grounding.
Predicted line-ups
Ipswich (4-2-3-1): Palmer, Furlong, O’Shea, Greaves, Davis, Matusiwa, Casjuste, Akpom, McAteer, Philogene, Hirst
Norwich (4-2-3-1): Kovacevic, Stacey, Darling, Cordoba, Fisher, McLean, Mattsson, Schwartau, Marcondes, Crnac, Sargent
Anything else catch the eye?
Backing Ipswich to score over 1.5 goals and win over three corners looks a strong combination in this derby.
Starting with goals, Ipswich’s attacking numbers are consistently impressive. They average 1.85 xG per game at home, one of the highest in the league, and have scored in every Championship fixture this season. They produce volume in the right areas, registering over 9 shots in the box per match and a healthy 3 shots on target per 90. They have also won the xG battle in five of their seven league games, underlining their dominance in chance creation. Against a Norwich side conceding heavily, two goals for the hosts feels realistic.
Defensively, Norwich have been wide open. They allow over 11 shots per game, with opponents hitting 4+ on target regularly. In their last four games, they have conceded 11 times, including three at Coventry and another three at Leicester. That fragility makes them vulnerable against one of the sharpest attacking units in the division.
The corner angle strengthens the bet. Ipswich average 4.5 corners per match and frequently build pressure through wide play. Norwich concede corners at one of the highest rates in the Championship, allowing nearly nine per game. Ipswich’s ability to sustain attacks, combined with Norwich’s tendency to defend deep and clear their lines, creates the perfect scenario for the hosts to win multiple corners.
With Portman Road behind them, Ipswich should be on the front foot throughout. Their attacking balance, depth of runners, and pressing game point to consistent pressure, both in terms of shots and set-pieces. Norwich’s defensive record away from home only adds weight to the angle.
Ipswich over 1.5 goals and Ipswich over three corners looks well supported by the numbers and the matchup profile.
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