Inter Miami return to Chase Stadium following a 4–2 win over CF Montreal, ending a four-game winless streak. Despite fitness concerns surrounding Lionel Messi, Jordi Alba, and Tomas Aviles, Miami remain one of the league’s most dangerous attacking sides at home.
They have scored in seven of their eight home matches, managing just one clean sheet and failing to score only once. Over 2.5 goals has landed in six of those eight games, with both teams scoring in five. Across all matches this season, eight of their 15 games have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals land. Defensively, concerns persist—they have conceded two or more goals in each of their last four matches and in five of their last six. Their home expected goals data (1.66 xG, 1.54 xGA) reflects an attacking team prone to defensive lapses.
Columbus Crew have been consistent all season, holding a record of W7-D7-L2. They have scored 26 and conceded 19, with three clean sheets and three games where they failed to find the net. Their underlying metrics are strong (1.73 xG, 1.35 xGA), and they have been solid on the road—posting a W3-D3-L1 record, scoring in all seven away games and conceding in six. Four of those seven have seen over 2.5 goals. They are currently trending toward high-scoring matches, with both teams scoring in nine of their last 10, and both teams scoring with over 2.5 goals hitting in seven of those 10. Their balance of attacking threat and occasional defensive lapses mirrors that of their opponents.
How the bookies view it:
Inter are priced at 21/20 for the win, indicating they are narrow favourites. Columbus Crew are available at 9/4, reflecting underdog status, while the draw is seen as the least likely outcome at 3/1.
The over/under markets point toward a high-scoring contest. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/15, showing strong confidence in at least three goals being scored. Both teams to score is also short at 4/9, underlining the expectation that both sides will find the net given their attacking profiles and recent form
Head to head: Goals on the agenda
Inter Miami CF and Columbus Crew have met 10 times in all competitions, with Miami winning six, Columbus three, and one match ending in a draw. Both sides have scored 15 goals each, averaging three goals per game.
Inter have had the edge in recent meetings, winning 1–0 in April 2025 and 3–2 in October 2024, both away from home. Columbus’s last dominant win came in a 4–0 result back in October 2021. Since then, Miami have won four of the last five encounters.
Although the goal tally is even, Inter’s recent form in the matchup has been stronger. These fixtures often produce goals—seven of the 10 meetings have featured over 2.5 goals, highlighting their open, attacking nature.
Predicted line-ups
Inter Miami remain without goalkeeper Drake Callender until early July. Midfielders David Ruiz, Baltasar Rodriguez, Yannick Bright, and Federico Redondo are sidelined with hamstring injuries, while defenders Ryan Sailor and Allen Obando are out until June. Fafa Picault may return from a head injury, and Lionel Messi, who was subbed off against CF Montreal, is expected to be fit. Columbus are missing Patrick Schulte, Rudy Camacho, and Sean Zawadzki, while Mohamed Farsi, Steven Moreira, and Darlington Nagbe are doubtful
Inter Miami CF (4-3-3): Ustari; Lujan, Aviles, Falcon, Alba; Busquets, Redondo, Allende; Messi, Suarez, Segovia
Columbus Crew (4-2-3-1): Schulte; Moreira, Camacho, Cheberko, Sands; Nagbe, Morris; Matan, Rossi, Yeboah; Hernandez
Players to watch: Messi a constant threat
Lionel Messi continues to be Inter Miami’s key attacking threat and is a strong candidate for player-based betting markets. He has taken 63 shots this season, with 28 on target, scoring eight goals and providing three assists in 12 matches. Impressively, he has recorded a goal or assist in eight of those 12 outings.
At home, Messi has played five games, delivering five goals and three assists, and has been directly involved in a goal in five of his six home appearances. His 28 shots on target across 1,026 minutes works out to one shot on target every 36 minutes—elite output that suggests consistent involvement.
Given Columbus Crew have conceded 5.5 xGA in their last two games, allowing 26 shots and 13 on target, Messi to register a goal or assist looks an excellent angle to attack.
Anything else catch the eye?
Inter Miami CF has played 15 MLS matches this season. Of these, six have featured at least four total goals (over 3.5 goals), giving them a 40% hit rate for high-scoring matches. This aligns with their recent form—Inter have seen an average of 5.42 goals per game across their last seven outings, with their opponents scoring two or more in six of those seven. These numbers highlight their open, attack-minded style but also reflect persistent defensive vulnerabilities.
Columbus Crew, meanwhile, have played 16 MLS matches this season, with five featuring four or more total goals—about 31% of their fixtures. While not quite as wild as Inter, the Crew's matches have also leaned toward attacking football in recent weeks. Notably, over 3.5 goals has landed in three of their last five. Looking at a wider sample, their last 11 matches have averaged 3.27 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 10 of those 11.
These trends suggest that while Columbus games can vary in tempo, recent evidence supports the expectation of goals at both ends. When paired with Inter’s chaotic matches, this fixture shapes up as a strong candidate for high-scoring outcome.
GambleAware