Inter Miami host FC Cincinnati in a key MLS Eastern Conference clash at Chase Stadium on Saturday. The match pits two of the top teams in the league against each other, with both firmly in the hunt for the Supporters’ Shield.
Miami have won six of their ten home games this season, scoring 24 goals and conceding 16, and come into this on the back of five wins from their last six matches. That run has seen them climb to fifth in the table, and their underlying numbers are solid. Miami’s home xG is 18.9 against xGA of 13.7, which supports their positive goal difference. They average 2.00 points per home game and have created more xPTS than they have actually earned.
Cincinnati are top of the table and boast an impressive away record with eight wins from 13 trips, but the underlying metrics suggest caution. Their away xG is just 13.9 while conceding an xGA of 23.4, producing a negative xGD of –9.5. They have overperformed their xPTS away from home, winning despite often conceding more big chances than they create. They have scored 18 away and conceded 17, and while efficient in attack, their defensive numbers hint at vulnerability against strong home sides.
With Miami’s attacking form and Cincinnati’s ability to find goals even when under pressure, this shapes up as one of the most intriguing games of the season, with plenty at stake for both sides.
How the bookies view it: Inter narrow favourites
Inter Miami are priced at 77/100, implying a 56.6% chance of winning, with the draw at 7/2 (22.2%) and Cincinnati at 16/5 (23.8%). The odds reflect Miami’s strong home form but still acknowledge Cincinnati’s ability to compete. The market also expects goals, with both teams to score priced at 4/9, an implied probability of 69.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 2/5, or 71.4%.
These short prices on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are consistent with the head-to-head record and both teams’ tendencies this season to create and concede chances, suggesting another open, high-scoring encounter is likely.
Head to Head: Cincinnati hold a slight edge
Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati have faced each other 12 times since 2020, with Cincinnati holding a slight edge thanks to six wins compared to Miami’s five, and just one draw. The meetings have often been lively, with both teams scoring in seven of those 12 matches and over 2.5 goals landing in the majority of games, including high‑scoring contests like a 6–1, a 5–1, a 4–4, and a 3–2.
Cincinnati have won four of the last six, but Miami have been strong at home, highlighted by their 2–0 victory in August 2024. The head‑to‑head record suggests a competitive rivalry where goals at both ends and high totals are common, making both teams to score and over 2.5 goals logical expectations when these sides meet.
Players to watch: Messi to run the game
Messi has started 17 matches this season, with one appearance off the bench, and has produced 18 goals and seven assists. He has taken 91 shots, 40 of them on target, and has contributed a goal or assist in 13 of his 18 appearances. His shooting output is remarkably consistent, recording at least 3 shots in all 17 starts and hitting two or more shots on target in each of his last 12 MLS games. At home, he has been even more effective, starting eight times, scoring nine goals and registering a goal or assist in seven of those matches.
In those eight homes starts he has taken 41 shots, with 15 on target. These numbers highlight just how involved he is in every game, both creating and finishing chances. His ability to generate multiple shots on target alongside his regular goal contributions, particularly at home, makes backing him to score or assist and record two or more shots on target a strong and well-supported bet.
Predicted line-ups
Inter Miami (4-4-2): Rios Novo; Lujan, Falcon, Busquets, Alba; Weigandt, Redondo, Segovia, Allende; Messi, Suarez
Cincinnati (5-3-2): Celentano; Flores, Robinson, Hadebe, Powell, Engel; Evander, Anunga, Bucha; Baird, Valenzuela
Anything else catch the eye?
Inter Miami double chance and both teams to score looks a sensible bet for this fixture. Miami have failed to score in just one of their ten home games, hitting at least two goals in seven of them. They average over 14 shots and nearly six on target per home match, and create more than two big chances per game on average. At the same time, they allow 1.6 goals per home game and concede more than ten shots per match, so their defence is far from watertight.
Cincinnati, despite their strong away record, also concede regularly on the road. They have kept only four clean sheets in 13 away games and concede about 13 shots and more than five on target per away match. They average over one big chance conceded per game away from home but also take more than 11 shots themselves and convert at a high rate.
Cincinnati’s away xPTS is significantly lower than their actual points, reflecting their tendency to win despite being outshot and conceding clear chances. Miami’s home xPTS, by contrast, is higher than their actual points tally, suggesting they have been a little unlucky.
With both sides creating and conceding chances in most games, backing Miami not to lose while both teams find the net offers value.
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