Inter Miami head into their home clash with CF Montreal as clear favourites, and the stats support that view. At Chase Stadium, Miami have a home record of W3-D2-L2, scoring 13 goals and conceding 12. They have scored in six of their seven home matches, with two or more goals in four. Four games have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in four.
Only three MLS teams have scored more goals than Inter this season. They average 1.62 non-penalty xG per match—one of the highest rates in the league. Defensively, they concede 1.56 xGA per game, which shows vulnerability, but their strong attacking output has often made up for it.
CF Montreal, by contrast, have struggled all season. They sit bottom of the Eastern Conference with a record of W1-D4-L9. They have scored just eight goals—the fewest in the league—and failed to score in seven of their 14 matches. They have conceded in 11 and allowed two or more goals six times. Away from home, they have lost six of nine, failed to score in five, and kept only two clean sheets.
Their metrics reflect their position. Montreal average just 1.12 non-penalty xG per match—among the league’s lowest—and while their 1.33 xGA is relatively solid, they still allow high-quality chances. Only one team concedes more shots on target.
While Montreal rank 11th for xPTS, they remain last in the table. Inter, seventh in the standings but 10th on xPTS, may be slightly overachieving, but they look well placed to take advantage again.
How the bookies view it: Inter clear favourites
Bookmakers are firmly siding with Inter Miami ahead of their home clash with CF Montreal. Inter are priced at 4/9 to win, reflecting a strong implied probability of around 69%. The draw is 4/1, while CF Montreal are heavy underdogs at 11/2.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, indicating a 66.7% implied chance that the game features at least three goals. Both teams to score is available at 4/6, showing moderate confidence that Montreal can contribute despite their poor scoring record.
One of the clearest indicators of market expectations is the price for Inter to find the net more than once—Inter to score 2 or more goals is also priced at 4/9, matching their win odds and reinforcing belief in their attacking output at home.
Head to head: Montreal hold the upper hand
The two sides have met 10 times in the MLS, with CF Montreal winning six of those matches. Inter Miami have recorded three victories, and just one game has ended in a draw. Montreal have also outscored Miami 17 to 13 across those fixtures.
Their most recent clashes have delivered goals and drama. In 2024, Inter Miami edged a 3-2 victory in Montreal in May, while CF Montreal won 3-2 in Fort Lauderdale earlier that March.
Four of the last five meetings have featured over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in four of those matches.
Predicted line-ups
For Inter Miami, goalkeeper Drake Callender remains out after undergoing surgery, while midfielder David Ruiz is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Baltasar Rodriguez is also recovering from a hamstring problem. Defender Ryan Sailor continues to recover from a concussion. Montreal are also dealing with multiple absentees. Bryce Duke and Gennadiy Synchuk are both still out.
Inter Miami (4-4-2): Ustari; Fray, Lujan, Aviles, Allen; Allende, Busquets, Redondo, Alba; Messi, Suarez
CF Montreal (4-4-2) : Sirois; Bugaj, Campbell, Neal; Petrasso; Sealy, Saliba, Piette, Herbers; Owusu, Vrioni
Players to watch: Messi, who else?
Lionel Messi has been one of the most reliable players in MLS from a betting perspective this season. In 11 appearances—10 of them starts—he has logged 936 minutes for Inter Miami, scoring six goals and providing two assists. Whether or not he finds the net, his influence in the final third remains constant.
Messi has taken 56 shots so far, 26 of which have been on target, giving him a 46% accuracy rate. He averages a shot every 16.7 minutes and a shot on target every 36 minutes. Per game, that works out to 5.1 total shots and 2.4 on target.
He has registered at least three shots in 10 of 11 appearances and hit 2+ shots on target in 10 as well. He has recorded four or more shots in eight matches, and in the one game he didn’t, he only played 36 minutes.
At home, Messi has featured five times, producing three goals and two assists. He has registered a goal or assist in four of those five matches, the only blank coming in Inter Miami’s 3-0 loss to Orlando City.
Anything else catch the eye?
Inter Miami’s recent matches have been packed with goals, with 25 scored across their last five games. While their attack continues to deliver, their defence has fallen apart—conceding three or more goals in each of their last four outings. In just their last two games, they have allowed a combined 5.6 xGA, underlining just how exposed they have become at the back.
Over the last three games, Inter Miami have conceded a total of 47 shots, with 21 of those on target and 35 coming from inside the box. These numbers highlight the extent of their defensive struggles, with opponents consistently creating high-quality chances in dangerous areas.
Despite the defensive issues, Miami remain dangerous going forward, regularly creating chances and scoring freely. Given their current profile—a potent attack matched by a vulnerable defence—the best value lies in the over 3 goal line, which covers both a dominant home performance and another high-scoring, end-to-end contest.
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