Middlesbrough head to Wembley on Saturday after being handed an unexpected second chance at promotion following Southampton's expulsion from the play offs over allegations of spying on rivals' training sessions, including Boro's preparations before the semi final first leg.
Kim Hellberg's side originally lost that tie 2-1 on aggregate but now find themselves back in the picture and facing Hull City, who secured their place with a 2-0 win over Millwall at The Den. For the Tigers, it completes a dramatic rise after surviving relegation on goal difference last season. Neither club has taken a straightforward route to Wembley and the build up has added another layer of noise ahead of Saturday's final.
Sergej Jakirovic's side have produced one of the most unusual statistical profiles in the Championship this season. Their 73-point total arrived despite posting an xGA of 82.69, the second highest figure in the division, yet they repeatedly found ways to turn performances into results.
Their semi final against Millwall highlighted exactly how they have operated all season. Hull generated 2.12 xG from only 33% possession in the second leg at The Den, creating three big chances while restricting Millwall to only 0.87 xG despite the Lions dominating possession with 67% of the ball.
Mohamed Belloumi and Joe Gelhardt came off the bench to score and secure a 2-0 victory. Reports around owner Acun Ilicali preparing a legal challenge if promotion slips away create an awkward backdrop during one of the biggest weeks in the club's recent history.
Middlesbrough arrive with some of the strongest underlying numbers in the Championship. Their xGA of 37.72 was outstanding while their xPTS of 80.21 almost perfectly matched their final total of 80 points, suggesting there was little fortune involved across the campaign.
Their original exit to Southampton felt harsh after a deflected cross in extra time eventually decided the tie despite two strong performances. Hellberg's side also dismantled Hull 4-1 earlier in the season and will travel to Wembley with confidence after already showing the level they can produce.
How the bookies view it
Hull are priced at 7/2, implying a 22% probability of victory. Middlesbrough are favourites at 19/20, implying 51%, while the draw sits at 27/10, implying 27%.
Both teams to score is available at 10/11, implying 52%. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, implying 48%.
Head to head: Boro hold the edge
Middlesbrough hold the stronger head to head record this season, with Hellberg's side producing a dominant 4-1 victory earlier in the campaign. Boro have generally looked the stronger side across both meetings and the overall pattern does not suggest a significant shift at Wembley.
The Championship play off record adds another angle. Middlesbrough have lost three previous Championship plays off in 2015, 2018 and 2023, making Saturday another opportunity to end that run.
Hull, meanwhile, won promotion here in 2016 after a 1-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday and already have experience of handling the occasion.
Player to watch: Riley McGree to make his mark
Riley McGree heads into Saturday as a strong option in the shots market. The Australian has registered 50 shots across his appearances this season, reaching two or more in 13 of his 20 starts.
He scored from two shots in the semi-final second leg against Southampton and managed six shots against Millwall in April, highlighting his willingness to get attempts away regardless of the occasion.
The match context strengthens the case further. Hull are likely to sit deep and invite pressure, with Jakirovic's counter-attacking approach well established throughout the campaign.
Middlesbrough will look to dominate and build from deep, creating repeated opportunities for McGree to get into dangerous areas and attempt efforts on goal. With Hull surrendering the ball willingly and Boro's front players given licence to get forward, another multi-shot performance from McGree looks firmly within range at Wembley.
Predicted lineups
Hull City: (4-2-3-1) Pandur, Hughes, Egan, Ayari, Coyle, Slater, Crooks, Giles, Belloumi, Millar, McBurnie
Middlesbrough (3-4-2-1): Brynn, Ayling, Malanda, Fry, Brittain, Morris, Hackney, Targett, McGree, Whittaker, Strelec
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score stands out as the strongest angle on Saturday, with season trends and away profiles pointing towards goals at both ends.
The away numbers offer the clearest starting point. Hull saw both teams to score land in 63% of away matches while Middlesbrough posted a 67% away both teams to score rate. Boro kept clean sheets in only 17% of away games while Hull failed to score in only 13% of away fixtures, highlighting a reliable attacking threat despite spending long periods without possession.
Playoff final history does add some caution, with only three of the last 11 Championship finals producing over 2.5 goals.
The occasion often tightens matches regardless of regular season trends. Middlesbrough's stronger process numbers, superior underlying profile and extra motivation after their unusual route back into the final still give them the edge. Hull will make life difficult, but Boro's quality should prove decisive.
GambleAware