The League Two clash between Grimsby Town and Crawley Town takes place at Blundell Park on Saturday. Both sides come into the game with contrasting backgrounds and ambitions, making this an intriguing encounter early in the season.
Grimsby Town finished ninth last season, narrowly missing out on the Play-Offs but showing clear improvement under manager David Artell. Their xPTS for the previous campaign stood at around 61.19, indicating a mid-table performance backed by solid underlying numbers. Artell’s management has transformed players like George McEachran and Kieran Green, with the squad maintaining strong cohesion despite losing key assist-provider Denver Hume over the summer. The Mariners retained 17 players and added promising talents such as Jamie Walker and Zak Gilsenan, injecting creativity and experience. With a tactical identity firmly in place and a well-balanced squad, Grimsby will be looking to push into the top seven this season.
Crawley Town arrive after a difficult season in League One that ended in relegation. Their xPTS last season was 50.84, reflecting their struggles at both ends of the pitch. However, the return of manager Scott Lindsey with nine games remaining sparked a late revival, earning 16 points in that period and showing promise for the future. Off the pitch, the club has undergone ownership changes and leadership restructuring, with new investors aiming to stabilize the club after a turbulent period. Key signings such as Reece Brown and Harry McKirdy bring attacking potential, while several experienced players remain to provide a solid foundation. Crawley will be eager to demonstrate progress and push for a swift return to League One.
Both teams come into this fixture with reasons for optimism but also challenges to overcome, setting the stage for a competitive encounter at Blundell Park.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Grimsby Town enter this League Two clash at Blundell Park as clear favourites, with odds of 11/10 to win (about 48% implied probability), while Crawley Town stand at 5/2 (29%) and the draw is priced at 27/10 (27%). Given both teams’ tendencies for open play and defensive vulnerabilities, the betting markets for goals are particularly attractive. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/6 (60% implied probability), and both teams to score comes in at 8/13 (62%), reflecting the high likelihood of a goal-filled contest.
Head to Head: Honours even
Recent head-to-head matches between Grimsby Town and Crawley Town show a fairly balanced rivalry, with both teams having won six of their last fourteen encounters since 2016, alongside two draws. Their meetings tend to be competitive and often feature multiple goals, highlighted by a 3-2 victory for Crawley at Blundell Park in September 2023 and several other close score lines. The latest match in April 2024 saw Crawley secure a 2-0 win away from home.
Players to watch: Tshimanga at it again
Kabongo Tshimanga proved last season that he is a forward to watch closely when it comes to scoring chances. Over the course of the 2024–25 campaign at Swindon Town, Tshimanga made 27 starts and appeared in 41 games overall, clocking up 2,445 minutes on the pitch. His return of 12 goals and three assists highlights his consistent threat in the final third, but it is the details behind those numbers that make him a strong anytime scorer candidate going forward.
When starting, Tshimanga found the net 10 times from 37 shots, 20 of which were on target, demonstrating both volume and accuracy in his shooting. These figures show he not only gets into promising positions regularly but also has the composure to convert chances at a reliable rate. More tellingly, he finished the season in excellent form, scoring six goals in his last eight starts, suggesting he was hitting peak confidence and sharpness during the crucial closing stages.
Given his shot volume, accuracy, and recent scoring streak, he stands out as a likely scorer in upcoming matches, making him a valuable pick for anytime goal scorer bets.
Predicted line-ups
Grimsby Town (4-3-3): Auton; Rodgers, Tharme, McJannet, Sweeney; Turi, Khouri, Burns; Green, Vernam, Kabia
Crawley Town (4-3-3): Davies; Barker, Conroy, Flint, Mukena; Williams, Scott, Forster; Holohan, Tshimanga, McKirdy
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score offer compelling betting value for this Grimsby vs Crawley fixture. Crawley’s matches last season featured a high volume of goals, with 65% of their games going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring landing frequently due to defensive vulnerabilities. They conceded over two goals per away match on average and failed to score in just under 40% of games, reflecting an open style prone to goal exchanges.
Grimsby’s home games also showed tendencies toward attacking football, supported by their xG numbers. Last season, they averaged around 1.30 xG per home match but conceded a similar amount (1.18 xGA), resulting in tight contests often featuring goals at both ends. The presence of creative midfielders like Jamie Walker and Zak Gilsenan increases their chance creation, and their matches tend to generate multiple shots and big chances.
Statistically, both teams produce a healthy volume of shots and shots on target, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. Crawley’s reliance on attackers like Reece Brown and Harry McKirdy, combined with Grimsby’s balanced attack, suggests both sides will find opportunities.
The combination of these attacking traits and defensive lapses on both sides makes over 2.5 goals and both teams to score a logical and backed-by-data betting angle for this game.
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